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Nate Silver: Has the Generic Ballot shifting towards the Democrats ? Maybe [1]
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Date: 2022-07-10
Nate Silver is being conservative in his analysis Here is the link
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/maybe-dobbs-did-change-the-race-well-need-more-time-to-know-for-sure/ From the article: It was a slow week of polling over the holiday weekend — happy birthday, USA — and the FiveThirtyEight midterm election forecast hasn’t changed much since we launched it last week. Republicans have an 86 percent chance of winning control of the House in November according to the Deluxe version of our model. But the Senate is much closer to a toss-up, with Republicans at a 53 percent chance of a takeover. Both of those numbers are pretty much the same as when we launched the model. But we’ve seen some movement toward Democrats on the generic congressional ballot, which asks voters which party they would support in an election. Democrats now trail Republicans by 1.6 percentage points in the FiveThirtyEight average. That compares with a 2.3-point deficit on June 24, when the Supreme Court announced in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health that it would overturn Roe v. Wade.
If we look at poll in the “captured picture”, we observe that every poll, (including Rasmussen Reports) shows a shift towards the Democrats in the Generic Congressional, Again, is this a reason to celebrate? Maybe maybe its a Blurb, post Supreme Court Decision that will shift towards the Republicans in a few weeks. Maybe this is a sign of a steady trajectory Again, as Nate Silver states, we need more data . Other issues can be factors. Crude Oil prices are dropping and sooner this will be reflected at the pump. Typically, when oil prices drop, other prices fall as well. But “typical “ doesn’t seem to exist (as is the case of normal What is a return to Normal) Maybe the public is not happy with Biden but does not trust giving the Republicans the reins of power. Personally, I am cautiously optimistic. In the meantime, we all have work to do.
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[1] Url:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/7/10/2109470/-Nate-Silver-Has-the-Generic-Ballot-shifting-towards-the-Democrats-Maybe
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