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Weekly DataDump from Senate Swing 2022 Canvassing in AZ, FL, GA, NV, NC, OH, PA & WI [1]

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Date: 2022-07-09

Since March 5, Hope Springs from Field PAC has been knocking on doors (as weather and primaries permitted) in Arizona, Nevada, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin — all critical states that will determine the Senate majority for the next two years. And nothing is more important this election than maintaining a Democratic Senate and even expanding upon it.

The biggest takeaway from the canvasses, besides the fact that it was the holiday weekend, is that voters apparently didn’t want to hang around talking to volunteers as much. We didn’t register as many voters, or collect Constituent Service Requests or Incident Reports as we normally do. Yet the number of voters who gave us answers to (at least some of) the Issues Questionnaire wasn’t noticeably down. Go figure.

1,027 volunteers came out to knock on doors for Hope Springs from Field PAC. These volunteers knocked on 71,329 doors, and had conversations with 5,000 voters. While our percentage of voters to doors knocked drops in the summer, the July 4th weekend was obviously a bid drop! We knocked on 100,000 fewer doors last Saturday than we had the prior one.

We walk with an Issues Canvass, where we ask voters what they think and whether they had a message for their elected officials. 3,035 voters answered questions from the survey, in whole or in part.

Almost everyone who responded answered at least two of the questions (‘do you have a message for your Congress critter’ and ‘what is their opinion of the job Biden is doing’). 1,648 voters (54%) told us that they have a favorable opinion of the job Biden was doing as president. 1,015 voters (33%) didn’t express an opinion of the president at this time. 372 voters (12%) said they had a negative impression of the job the president was doing.

Gas prices (despite the fact they were falling) returned to be the Top Issue this week. I wonder if it had anything to do with people travelling? Reproductive Rights kind of fell out of the equation, returning to what we were seeing before the Dobbs decision struck down Roe. Other than that, voter concerns were pretty much all over the map. The Griner Detention was a new entry, and Public Safety being the top concern just over the border from Highland Park was fairly eerie.

Hope Springs from Field PAC is knocking on doors in a grassroots-led effort to increase awareness of the fact that Democrats care about our voters and are working to protect their rights. We are thinking about how to mitigate Voter Suppression efforts, get around them and make sure we have "super compliance," both informing and helping our voters meet the requirements and get out and vote. We are taking those efforts to the doors of the communities most effected (the intended targets or victims) of these new voter suppression laws.

Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/2022senateswing

Hope Springs from Field PAC was started by former Obama Field Organizers because field was the cornerstone of our success. And we are among those who believe that Democrats didn’t do as well in the 2020 Congressional races as expected because we didn’t knock on doors — and we didn’t register new voters (while Republicans did). We are returning to the old school basics: repeated contacts, repeated efforts to remind them of protocols, meeting them were they are. Mentoring those who need it (like first time and newly registered voters). Reminding, reminding, reminding, and then chasing down those voters whose ballots need to be cured.

We ask voters who talk to us whether they approve or disapprove of the job the president, their incumbent Senator (up for election this year), and how their governor (if they are up for election this year) is doing. After the primaries, we ask about the Democratic Senate and Gubernatorial nominees.

Florida (top) and Arizona graphs

In Florida, 54% of the voters we talked to who responded had a favorable impression of President Biden but only 23% had a favorable impression of Senator Rubio. 5% had a favorable impression of Governor DeSantis last week. Remember that we are only knocking on doors of households with Democratic and Independent voters in Central Florida; we don’t include households that only have Republicans in them. 33% of Florida voters we talked to disapproved of the job Rubio has done in the Senate and 45% disapproved the job by DeSantis in Central Florida.

In Arizona, 49% of the voters we talked to responded they had a favorable impression of President Biden and 74% had a favorable impression of Senator Kelly (an uptick for both). 22% of them had a favorable impression of their retiring Governor Doug Ducey while 27% had an unfavorable view.

Georgia (top) and North Carolina graphs

In Georgia, 57% of the voters we talked to approved of the job President Biden was doing. 77% approved of the job Senator Warnock was doing. Only 16% approved of the job Governor Kemp was doing. 63% of the voters we talked to last week had a favorable impression of Stacey Abrams. Again, we are talking to households identified in the VAN model as Democratic and Independent voters (Georgia doesn’t have party registration). We do our best to eliminate Republican households although we do get mixed addresses, where someone is a Democrat (usually a female or younger voter) and someone is a Republican (usually male).

In North Carolina, 56% of the voters we talked to approved of the job President Biden was doing. 59% of the voters we talked to approved of the job Governor Cooper was doing. Since the Democratic nominee for Senate is now official, we also asked about Cheri Beasley, the former Chief Justice of the NC Supreme Court. 69% of the people we talked to had a favorable impression of Justice Beasley.

Nevada (top) and Pennsylvania graphs

In Nevada, 56% of the voters we talked to approved of the job President Biden was doing. 51% had a favorable impression of the job Senator Cortez Masto was doing. 48% of voters approved of the job Governor Sisolak was doing. Both them had higher numbers during the time Nevada had their primary, so we can assume benefited from increased advertising and name recognition. Whereas 14% of the Nevada voters we talked to had a negative impression of President Biden (the week’s high), only 5% had a negative view of the senator and 9% had a negative view of the governor.

In Pennsylvania, in our sixth week of canvassing, 57% of the voters we talked to approved of the job President Biden was doing. 71% had a favorable opinion of John Fetterman, the Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate. 66% had a favorable view of Josh Shapiro, the Democratic nominee for Pennsylvania governor.

Wisconsin (top) and Ohio graphs

In Wisconsin, in our seventh week of canvassing, 56% of the voters we talked to approved of the job President Biden was doing, 12% disapproved. 4% approved of the job Senator Johnson was doing while 51% of the voters we talked to disapproved of their senator. As you can see, the approval numbers for Johnson have been remarkably consistent. I fact, his numbers have been the most consistent of any candidate we have asked about. 51% approved of the job that Governor Evers was doing; 9% disapproved.

In Ohio, in our fifth week of canvassing, 48% of the voters we talked to approved of the job President Biden was doing. 17% disapproved. 74% approved of the job Tim Ryan was doing. 39% approved of the job that Governor DeWine was doing. 15% of the Democratic and Independent voters we talked to last Saturday disapproved of the job DeWine was doing.

The trend lines are now starting to diverge again for President Biden’s approval ratings in the different states. 9 percentage points (down 5 points) now separate Biden’s approval ratings in Ohio (week’s low) and Georgia (week’s high). Remember that we don’t knock on doors of Republican households even though there are definitely doors of mixed party households we canvass. But we are getting interesting feedback from voters who seem inclined to support the president. “He’s got to deliver,” said one voter in Wisconsin — a sentiment shared by others in not so different language.

10 people filled out new voter registration forms for their states during last weekend’s canvassing. Another 119 voters updated their address, as required by HAVA. We differentiate between the two because brand new voters are often ignored by campaigns and we hope to compensate for that somewhat by having volunteers send them post cards before the election and they are also getting robocalls thanking them for registering. But this was the lowest number of voters that we registered or updated their voting address (re-registered) since the first week we canvassed in Florida and Arizona.

We collected 205 Constituent Service Request Forms this week. In general, we send these to Democratic elected officials responsible for the requested functions, but if the appropriate office is held by a Republican, we still send it along. For Democrats, though, we encourage them to reach out immediately to the voter who filled out the CSR and let them know they are working on the issue. This credit-taking is enormously valuable to the Democratic office-holder.

We continue to walk with Incident Reports, and we ask people who say they are concerned about the upcoming general election if they want to fill one out. Last Saturday, we only had 15 voters (primarily in Georgia) fill them out on last Saturday.

We pass along Incident Reports to the Lawyer’s Committee for Civil Rights and NALEO (those that correspond to Hispanic precincts), and send copies to state Democratic Party committees. But our purpose is to combine this information with the two independent databases of voting incidents to look for patterns before the election and use that information for warning district, state and U.S. attorneys’ offices that we could see those patterns resurface on election day. We will also use it to target Election Day Protection activity.

By starting early, and aiming towards super-compliance with these really, really onerous provisions in some states, Hope Springs from Field PAC seeks to undermine that strategy, while informing voters about the new laws and regulations aimed at them. There’s a lot of work to be done, but fortunately, the three states that are making it most difficult are also states in which you can knock on doors at least 10 months out of the year. And, with your help, we will be there, getting our people to super-comply with these restrictive provisions.

If you are able to support our efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please help:

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/2022senateswing

Thank you for your support. This work depends on you!

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/7/9/2109250/-Weekly-Stats

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