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Highlights from The Downballot: States' rush to enshrine abortion rights, electing more Black women [1]
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Date: 2022-07-07
Starting off in Kansas, Nir highlighted a major ballot amendment, the outcome of which could be determined by a big grassroots push. In 2019, the Kansas Supreme Court issued a decision saying that the state constitution recognized a right to an abortion, leaving Republicans furious with the ruling ever since and wanting to pass new abortion restrictions into law. As Nir explained,
They have super majorities in the legislature so they could do so over Governor Laura Kelly's vetoes, she's a Democrat of course, but they can't because of this Supreme Court ruling by the state Supreme Court to be clear. So what they've done instead is put a measure on the ballot that would amend the state constitution to say that there is no right to an abortion found within that governing document. If that amendment were successful, then they would be allowed to pass all the abortion restrictions they like, including if they want a total ban. This ballot measure is coming up for a vote on August 2nd. That is Kansas’ primary. It is all but certain that Republicans decided to put this on the ballot in the dead of summer in the hopes that lower turnout would benefit their side. But of course, there has been a huge amount of attention directed toward this ballot measure ever since the Supreme Court’s Dobbs ruling. And there is a big progressive effort to try to defeat it to preserve the right to an abortion as the Kansas Supreme Court has interpreted it.
Activists are also going on offense in Michigan, pushing their legislators to amend the constitution in that state to formally recognize a right to an abortion. This is particularly critical there because even though Michigan is typically a blue state, and is one with a democratic governor, it has two things that are a huge problem: one is a Republican controlled legislature that has won office year after year through gerrymandering, though those gerrymanders are finally about to go away; and the other is that there is still a law on the books from 1931 banning abortion in Michigan. Currently, that 1931 law has been put on hold by the courts in the wake of the Dobbs ruling. Ultimately, it may go up to the state Supreme Court where Democrats have a 4-3 majority.
“If this ballot measure, which is happening in November, is successful in adding a right to an abortion to the state constitution, then the Michigan courts are going to be responsible for interpreting that in the future,” Nir added. “Because Republicans aren't simply going to give up just because this ballot measure might be successful.”
Nir also discussed the fact that a number of critical races for state Supreme Courts are also going to be on the ballot in November, including in Michigan and North Carolina, and how that might affect abortion and other rights in the years to come.
As we move into the fall, there will likely be more of an emphasis on election models forecasting the 2022 election. Beard offered an overview and an assessment of these models. As he put it, it’s important to take them with a grain of salt, but also learn how to read them and utilize key takeaways: “These election models, of course, were probably most famous for missing the 2000 presidential election result as of course did most people at the time. But that one failure doesn't mean that election models are useless.”
The best thing about election models, as Beard put it, is that they are a good gut check and are independent of one’s own thoughts and feelings about an election:
Because elections are so important and we so passionately care about them, it can be very easy to convince yourself of your own arguments and why your side is going to win. And if you believe something that's, "Oh, our side is going win because of this factor or that factor," and the models are telling you very differently, it's worth evaluating why that might be. And if you might not be looking at things clearly in that case. Now, the bad part of election models forecasting is often determining individual race results. Models can use this data down to the individual race level, but that's not really what they're there for or what they're good at. Particularly down at the House level where the data is just so limited and there are so many races, it's hard for that to be useful. And even at the state level for a Senate race or a governor's race, I would just recommend looking at a polling average before looking at an individual model forecast. And in the House, there's always going to be surprises. So looking that far into it is almost never going to be helpful.
Election models compile a lot of information in one place and analyze many factors, including fundraising, polling, fundamentals, and more, and putting out one synthesized result. “That can be definitely useful, particularly for people who can't or aren't interested in following the election in depth … so if you only have 30 seconds or a minute to see what's going on with an election, a model is a good place to go to just check-in, see what the thing is saying, and then continue on,” Beard said.
Lastly, he added, one difficult aspect of models is separating good information from bad or useless information, with other side of that coin of putting in a ton of information being that models are only as good as the information that are added to them.
Going across the pond, Beard and Nir also talked about this week’s goings on in the UK, where Conservative Prime Minister Boris Johnson had been under increasing pressure to resign (and shortly after the release of this episode of the podcast, stepped down), and has seen a massive number of cabinet resignations.
After a brief break, Nir and Beard welcomed Powell-Dennis onto the show to share a little bit about the work her organization does and how we can elect more Black women.
Last cycle, 2021, the organization supported 24 women on the ballot all across the country, partnering with organizations like Movement Labs and dropping hundreds of thousands of text messages to help get out to vote. In particular, these messages spoke directly to Black women voters about Black women that Elect Black Women PAC was supporting, who were on the ballot in their community.
She also offered specific examples of victories Elect Black Women PAC had helped guide candidates to in the last cycle:
And so, that made a huge difference, particularly in Pennsylvania. We had a statewide candidate Judge Lori Dumas, who was running. And she needed something like 2.4 million votes to win. And so, our efforts to just turn out the vote for her, as well as other candidates. We had women running for judge in Montgomery County, Allegheny County. You name it. We were able to text message voters and say, "Hey, here are some incredible women who you should give a second look at. Learn more about their campaigns." And we had an incredible number of women who won. So of the 24 who were on the ballot, about 18 of them won outright. There were a few women who, like Susan Hudson, who was running for sheriff in New Orleans. Her election was moved back because there was a storm. And so there were some elections that were postponed and so we didn't get the results until later. But nonetheless, those Get Out To Vote efforts made all the difference. We also saw it make a difference in Birmingham City Council. LaTonya Tate was one of our women. She beat an incumbent who had significant name recognition. And so the text messaging programs, we know work, particularly with Black women voters.
Powell-Dennis also expanded on the organization’s work with vendors and partners all over the country, and why it is important to bring them together and essentially make them accessible to their candidates:
Most women who are running down-ballot don't have the time, the capacity, and the staff to look for mail vendors, to look for digital firms, and to do price comparisons. Women are just running hard to try and knock as many doors, and talk to as many voters as possible, and raise as much money as they can. And so that was a significant gap and it still continues to be a gap in our ecosystem.
“I find that really fascinating because it's very easy to read about elections, and you understand how hard it is to win an election. But simply how difficult it is to run an election, to run a campaign, those are the kind of details that I feel often get glossed over and ignored. Especially when we're talking about candidates who are women, or people of color, or from other underrepresented communities. So I'm just super glad to be able to shine a spotlight and hear about you talking about this kind of issue, because really does not come up often enough,” Nir observed.
“That kind of stuff matters. Particularly when you're talking about credibility within the democratic community, credibility within politics. When you're a first time candidate and you have your background, your stump speech, but people don't really know you,” Powell-Dennis replied. “And so people sometimes decide whether or not it's worth investing depending on who's working on your campaign. And so there are some firms, like if you say 76 Words, people know who is in that firm. They know the work that they're doing. They know some of the candidates they've worked with. But that doesn't always mean something in a local context.”
Powell-Dennis also brought up the reality that people often overlook the reality that Black women have a lot of responsibilities, both inside the home and outside of the home, regardless of their socioeconomic status:
When we think about leadership, one, we have to think about it pretty broadly, because if a woman is working in her church, volunteering at the food pantry, those are the types of stories, the types of relationships, the type of connectedness we want in our elected officials, in our elected leadership. But the gap is that oftentimes that woman who's so hardworking, who's doing such incredible work, people don't want to tap her on the shoulder for a leadership position because they can't think of someone else who wants to backfill that position. Right? Because it's hard work. It's behind the scenes. And unfortunately Black women are conditioned to kind of be behind the scenes. I can't even tell you how many candidates I talked to and I'm like, "You would be so great." Or how many leaders I talked to and I'm like, "You would be so amazing." They're like, "No, no, no, no, no. I'm behind the scenes." And I'm like, "Ma'am, you're a CEO of a nonprofit. You are not behind the scenes." So the irony of it is when you have CEOs who feel like, "Well, I could never be an elected official." There's a disconnect, again, between that service piece, being behind the scenes, and what it means to actually be an elected official and a leader. So there's a whole conversation we can have about why is it that we're so hesitant to tap extraordinary women, who are serving right now, for positions that are in more of a spotlight. Because quite frankly we know their leadership stories and their narratives are going to resonate once they're out there running. But before we even get to that, the other part of it is that folks just don't feel compelled to give as much money, resources, or just support to Black women.
“A lot of times it's because Black women, we won't complain, we just make things happen. And we often don't, are so accustomed to not having the social networks and resources so we figure it out. And that works in your, doesn't work in your favor in politics because it is about networks, and people knowing you over time, and giving you discounted services for things for your campaign, et cetera. And people don't do that for people they don't know,” she added. “It's just that we live in a country where people just don't feel compelled. It's not in our DNA to cut large checks to Black women running for office.”
With so much work remaining to do, conversations like this are crucial to keeping the door open to Black women who want to run for office. As Powell-Dennis put it,
We just have to be open and honest, and talk about the fact that most political firms do not give discounts to Black women candidates. And they expect Black women candidates to raise money, and to engage people at the same level as white men who've often gone to Yale Law and some of the finest educational institutions in our country.
Now, obviously we'd be remiss if we didn't talk about the Dobbs decision overturning Roe, that's just really sent a shock wave throughout the country and obviously many different levels, but in this case for campaigns that are happening right now. What sort of response in just a few days, obviously since it's happened, have you seen with your endorsed candidates and on the ground in general as this has sort of continued to develop?” Beard asked.
Powell-Dennis replied:
I think it's general disbelief. People just didn't believe that the changes and new appointments to the Supreme Court would end up in such a significant landmark decision revoking a major human right, and I'm saying that putting it politely. For women and birthing individuals who experienced life before Roe v. Wade, the stories that I have heard, the stories that my own family members who didn't have access to any reproductive services whatsoever, it's hard. It's hard to listen to that. The other thing is that there are a number of folks who are celebrating the overturning of Roe Wade, but they are not impacted by it. And I think that's particularly challenging. We're seeing folks come out proudly saying, we're glad that these services are not being made available, but they're not thinking about the women and birthing individuals who can't get access to a necessary service and that's really hard, especially if that's not a service that person would ever need.
You can follow Elect Black Women PAC’s work at electblackwomenpac.com , and on Facebook , Instagram , and Elect Black Women, W-O-M-X-N on Twitter . There, Powell-Dennis added, listeners can learn more about the organization’s endorsed candidates, you can click on each post and learn a little bit more about them. Powell-Dennis herself is running for the 31st District in Tennessee’s State Senate. You can look out for more from her by following RPowellDennisTN on all social media platforms.
The Downballot comes out every Thursday everywhere you listen to podcasts! As a reminder, you can reach our hosts by email at
[email protected]. Please send in any questions you may have for next week's mailbag. You can also reach out via Twitter: @DKElections.
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