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365 Days of Climate Awareness 326 – Hindcasting [1]

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Date: 2022-07-05

Accuracy through a prior range in time is not a guarantee of accuracy into the future. Predictions are hard! And conditions, such as greenhouse gas inputs, change. We are limited by the relatively recent development of our climate monitoring capabilities, and the immediacy of the impacts of global warming. We don’t have a long timespan of direct measurements, or a leisurely run of decades to come in which to build our base of knowledge. Climate is changing, now, with increasing speed.

For its imperfection, hindcasting is still a primary tool of climate modelers. Increasing computer speed and more detailed information about conditions in the atmosphere, ocean and the rest of the biosphere provide the means for modelers to make more comprehensive, higher-resolution models. The more variables around the globe which can be controlled for, from basics like temperature, humidity and albedo, to more advanced types such as evapotranspiration rates and oceanic gas and heat fluxes, the more robust the model will be.

This is why predictive climate model runs normally include a hindcasting run-up of several decades, to establish that any given model run is as true to known data as we can make it. It’s a regular, common-sense verification like any equipment safety checklist.

Tomorrow: model results from the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6).

Be brave, be steadfast, and be well.

Sources:

Ocean Weather

Department of Energy

Goddard Center - Columbia U.

Nature

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/7/5/2108338/-365-Days-of-Climate-Awareness-326-Hindcasting

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