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Ukraine Invasion Day 130: Pentagon: new rocket system hit Russian command posts [1]
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Date: 2022-07-02
More missile strikes, among other attacks and counterattacks, as the disinformation flow continues with distortion of losses and territory held.
“We’re simply not going to do Russia’s BDA or intel work for them,” Breasseale said, using a military acronym for battle damage assessment. “However, I think we have discussed what we can, when it is knowable, demonstrable and objective.”
The Defense Department’s overriding concern about discussing the Ukrainian military is balancing what can be said at an unclassified level and not providing an “unintended assessment” that Putin can use to his advantage, Pentagon spokesman Todd Breasseale said.
But the Ukrainians have sustained heavy casualties, too. Independent estimates indicate each side has seen tens of thousands of soldiers killed and wounded. The Pentagon has largely refused to publicly discuss its assessments of killed and wounded.
U.S. officials have downplayed the gains, calling them halting and incremental, while highlighting the significant number of Russian military fatalities that have come as a result.
U.S. officials acknowledge that as Russian forces have massed firepower, they have gradually seized territory in the east. That includes capturing the strategically important city of Severodonetsk in June and threatening to do the same in its nearby sister city, Lysychansk.
The growing conjecture comes more than four months after Russia’s invasion and its failure to seize the capital. Russian President Vladimir Putin has since narrowed its objectives, focusing on capturing eastern Ukraine’s industrial Donbas region while launching thousands of artillery rounds per day at outgunned Ukrainian forces.
The shifting nature of the war in Ukraine has prompted a split among analysts and U.S. lawmakers, with some questioning whether American officials have portrayed the crisis in overly rosy terms while others say the government in Kyiv can win with more help from the West.
Geolocation of videos from the strikes in Melitopol last night suggest two logistics/storage areas near the airfield were struck, at 46°52'50"N 35°19'39"E and 46°52'52"N 35°20'06"E
https://t.co/TfBn95KUMm pic.twitter.com/PgDfng0OB6
"HIMARS hit a Russian military barracks where new recruits were sleeping, inflicting heavy losses, Lt. Koval said. In a 3rd attack he described, the Ukrainians directed all 4 HIMARS at Russian positions in one Ukrainian town, sending 24 rockets against targets in the same area." pic.twitter.com/hJMZzvXGha
Key Takeaways
Russian forces entered Lysychansk and advanced within the city on July 2.
Russian forces are conducting offensive operations southwest of Lysychansk likely to push westward towards Siversk and complete the capture of the entirety of Luhansk Oblast.
Russian forces continued unsuccessful ground assaults north of Slovyansk.
Russian forces conducted limited attacks southwest of Donetsk City but did not make any confirmed gains.
Ukrainian troops are likely planning to threaten Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) throughout Kharkiv Oblast using Western-supplied weapons.
Ukrainian counterattacks and partisan activity continue to force Russian troops to prioritize defensive operations along the Southern Axis.
Proxy leadership may be setting conditions for the direct annexation of proxy republics by the Russian Federation.
Ukrainian forces plan to continue to threaten Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) running from Belgorod, Russia, to southern Kharkiv Oblast with Western-supplied long-range rocket artillery. The Chief of Staff of the Ukrainian Kraken Special Unit, Konstiantyn Nemichev, stated that Ukrainian forces will use US-provided HIMARS rocket artillery systems to disrupt Russian GLOCs running through Vovchansk, Kupyansk, and Izyum. Kupyansk is a significant logistical hub for Russian forces operating on the Kharkiv axis and is located approximately 50km from the frontline. Vovchansk lies approximately 15-20 km from the frontline, but Russian operations in northern Kharkiv have prevented Ukrainian forces from targeting Vovchansk with indirect fire thus far. Russian GLOCs to Izyum are the most exposed, approximately 15km east of the nearest frontline, and NASA FIRMS heat anomaly detection has observed heat anomalies consistent with indirect fire attacks in wooded areas west of Izyum in recent weeks. Most Russian major ammunition depots and support stations along the Kharkiv axis would be within the range of HIMARS systems that would cover the Kharkiv axis.
Russian forces entered Lysychansk and advanced within the city on July 2, likely after Ukrainian forces conducted a controlled withdrawal from the city. Kremlin-sponsored outlet RIA Novosti claimed that Russian forces seized Lysychansk, but it is unclear if Russian forces fully cleared and secured the city.[8] Geolocated footage showed Russian forces hanging a red banner in Lysychansk‘s city center and walking around the city’s northern neighborhood.[9] Chechen units also advanced to the southeastern part of Lysychansk, with geolocated footage showing them outside the Lysychansk City Council building.[10] The footage in both areas shows Russian forces freely walking around the city and taking group photos, suggesting that Ukrainian defenders had already withdrawn. Ukrainian officials did not announce a withdrawal from Lysychansk, but the Ukrainian General Staff notably did not discuss any Ukrainian defensive activity around Lysychansk.[11] Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov claimed earlier in the day that Russian forces have encircled Ukrainian forces in Lysychansk and noted that Chechen units were preparing for street fights and full-scale attack to seize the city, but then announced that Russian forces had captured the city in full.[12] The inconsistencies in Kadyrov’s claims may suggest that Russian forces expected to face remaining Ukrainian resistance in the city but found that the Ukrainians had instead withdrawn.
Ukrainian forces likely conducted a deliberate withdrawal from Lysychansk, resulting in the Russian seizure of the city on July 2. Geolocated footage showed Russian forces casually walking around northern and southeastern neighborhoods in Lysychansk in a way that suggests that there are few or no remaining Ukrainian forces in the city as of July 2.[1] Ukrainian military officials did not publicly announce a troop withdrawal but neither did they report on defensive battles around Lysychansk. Ukrainian Internal Affairs Minister Vadym Denysenko vaguely noted that Russian forces have a “high probability” of capturing Lysychansk but that they will have a difficult time advancing in Donetsk Oblast past Slovyansk and Kramatorsk.[2] Ukrainian National Guard Spokesperson Ruslan Muzychuk rejected reports of Russian forces seizing and encircling Lysychansk, but these denials are likely outdated or erroneous.[3] The Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Ambassador to Russia, Rodion Miroshnik, had previously claimed that Ukrainian forces began withdrawing from Lysychansk on June 28.[4] ISW will continue to monitor the situation.
Russian forces will likely establish control over the remaining territory of Luhansk Oblast in coming days and will likely then prioritize drives on Ukrainian positions in Siversk before turning to Slovyansk and Bakhmut. A Ukrainian withdrawal to Siversk would allow Ukrainian forces reduce the risk of immediate encirclement, but Ukrainian forces may continue a fighting withdrawal to a line near the E40 highway from Slovyansk to Bakhmut.
Russian forces continued to focus on defensive operations along the Southern Axis on July 2.[24] The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Ukrainian counteroffensive activity forced Russian troops to withdraw from previously-held positions in Ivanivka (northwestern Kherson Oblast).[25] Ukraine’s Zaporizhia Oblast Military Administration reported that Russian forces in Zaporizhia Oblast are preparing occupied settlements for ”circular” defense, which indicates that Russian troops are likely engineering 360-degree fortifications in occupied territory.[26] Ukrainian partisan and counteroffensive activities continue to pressure Russian forces to prioritize defensive operations, likely at the expense of Russian forces pursuing territorial gains in southern Ukraine.[27] Russian forces conducted air, artillery, and missile strikes against Ukrainian positions and infrastructure in Kherson, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.[28]
x According to CNN, another U.S. official said Russia likely does not have sufficient forces in Kherson Oblast, especially considering its dedication of troops to Donbas. — The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) July 2, 2022
x An airfield north of #Melitopol was successfully targeted this morning by Ukrainian artillery. An oil depot within the facility has been burning for over two hours. pic.twitter.com/3vchJIQRZK — The Intel Crab (@IntelCrab) July 3, 2022
x “Just be grateful that we don’t have war in Canada,” Canadian fighter in Ukraine who doesn't have any Ukrainian roots Matthew McGill said.
“Right now things are really good,” he compared organization with the first days but still said “We need equipment”
https://t.co/gYGGi2wr2c pic.twitter.com/inkRxi1qOj — Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) July 3, 2022
x Now think. Is Russian cyber attacking and the US "defending" Ukraine, freedom, or are the West, EU, etc, afraid of a creative, powerful, nation, who still have great tech/science, wanting to avoid its transition to democracy?🤔
IMDb: : The Undeclared War
https://t.co/brPTMmL8ti — bjpafa (@bjpafa) July 3, 2022
x instead of "I've got you babe" on Bill Murray's radio alarm, it should be that Kate Bush classic in Chornobaivka's version of Russian Groundhog Day. — Ukrainian Ministry of Accidental Russian Fires (@EPICGOPFAIL) July 3, 2022
x BREAKING: Ukraine just bombed an ammunition depot in the Russian city of Belgorod, near the Ukrainian border.
Glory to Ukraine 🇺🇦
pic.twitter.com/42RYa3pkDZ — Republicans against Trumpism (@RpsAgainstTrump) July 3, 2022
x Russia's War in Ukraine May Bring Nonalignment Back
https://t.co/NAWpdCOUm1 — Dr Elizabeth Buchanan (@BuchananLiz) July 3, 2022
x Ukraine Has Exposed Russia as a Not-So-Great Power - The Atlantic
https://t.co/7PNeD3ej3l — Alexander S. Vindman (@AVindman) July 3, 2022
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