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Roe Decision Driving Enthusiasm & Vols: Weekly DataDump for AZ, FL, GA, NV, NC, OH, PA & Wi [1]
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Date: 2022-07-02
Last Saturday was our fourth week summer canvassing, which means we had to revert to canvassing with drivers to make sure they were not stressed by the weather. But we know how to do this, to keep our volunteers safe and protected. Volunteers are golden.
We are knocking on doors in Arizona, Nevada, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin — all critical states that will determine the Senate majority for the next two years. And nothing is more important this election than maintaining a Democratic Senate and even expanding upon it.
Whether or not the Dobbs v Jackson Women’s Health Organization has a dramatic impact in November’s election, it certainly had an impact on our canvass turnout last Saturday. 2,547 volunteers came out to knock on doors for Hope Springs from Field PAC last Saturday, sometimes in 90 degree weather. This is our new high for volunteers — something I hope we exceed again and again this summer. After all, we are trying to knock 2 million doors before Labor Day and we have a ways to go! For the month of June, a total of 7,341 volunteers came out to knock on doors (or, in the hotter states, serve as drivers/team supervisors).
These volunteers knocked on 174,754 doors, and had conversations with 12,061 voters. The number of doors we knocked, and the number of voters we talked to, was another new high! However, our percentage of voters to doors knocked drops in the summer, which happens when a.) volunteers get diverted to driving cooling vehicles to keep canvassers safe, and b.) it’s still hot out there! For the month of June, we knocked on a total of 506,493 doors and talked to a total of 37,062 voters.
We walk with an Issues Canvass, where we ask voters what they think and whether they had a message for their elected officials. 7,296 voters answered questions from the survey, in whole or in part. For the month of June, 22,745 voters filled out at least part of our Issues Questionnaire.
Almost everyone who responded answered at least two of the questions (‘do you have a message for your Congress critter’ and ‘what is their opinion of the job Biden is doing’). 4,002 voters (55%) told us that they have a favorable opinion of the job Biden was doing as president. 2,344 voters (32%) didn’t express an opinion of the president at this time. 950 voters (13%) said they had a negative impression of the job the president was doing.
Reproductive Rights/Freedom was the Top Issue in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin this week. Duh. Inflation was Number 1 in North Carolina and Ohio. The Economy, which broadly means concerns over recession or tourism, was the most frequent concern in Florida. The rising price of gas was the Top Issue from our questionnaire in Georgia. We continue to hear a lot of comments about price increases and how it is effecting voters’ wallets. And people continue to tell us that Democrats should talk about it more, and, more specifically, that we should be more forward looking and outline steps to address it. Voters want their pain acknowledged and solutions being offered by candidates in order to support them in November.
Reproductive Rights/Freedom was the Number 2 issue in Florida and North Carolina. Inflation was the second most frequent issue mentioned in Arizona and Nevada. The Economy was second in Ohio and Pennsylvania. In Wisconsin it was Gas Prices; and Health Related Issues was second in Georgia.
Reproductive Rights was the third most frequent response in Georgia and Ohio. Gun Violence was third in Nevada and Pennsylvania. Inflation was Number 3 in Florida; the Economy was third in Wisconsin. Public Safety was the third most frequent response in Arizona; Health Costs came up third in North Carolina. Crime was not in the top three anywhere last week.
Hope Springs from Field PAC is knocking on doors in a grassroots-led effort to increase awareness of the fact that Democrats care about our voters and are working to protect their rights. We are thinking about how to mitigate Voter Suppression efforts, get around them and make sure we have "super compliance," both informing and helping our voters meet the requirements and get out and vote. We are taking those efforts to the doors of the communities most effected (the intended targets or victims) of these new voter suppression laws.
Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/2022senateswing
Hope Springs from Field PAC was started by former Obama Field Organizers because field was the cornerstone of our success. The approach we adopted was focused on listening, on connecting voters and their story to the candidate and our cause. Repeated face to face interactions are critical. And we are among those who believe that Democrats didn’t do as well in the 2020 Congressional races as expected because we didn’t knock on doors. We are returning to the old school basics: repeated contacts, repeated efforts to remind them of protocols, meeting them were they are. Mentoring those who need it (like first time and newly registered voters). Reminding, reminding, reminding, and then chasing down those voters whose ballots need to be cured.
We ask voters who talk to us whether they approve or disapprove of the job the president, their incumbent Senator (up for election this year), and how their governor (if they are up for election this year) is doing. After the primaries, we ask about the Democratic Senate and Gubernatorial nominees.
In Florida, 57% of the voters we talked to who responded had a favorable impression of President Biden but only 22% had a favorable impression of Senator Rubio. 5% had a favorable impression of Governor DeSantis last week. Remember that we are only knocking on doors of households with Democratic and Independent voters in Central Florida; we don’t include households that only have Republicans in them. 28% of Florida voters we talked to disapproved of the job Rubio has done in the Senate and a significant majority (58%) disapproved the job by DeSantis in Central Florida.
In Arizona, 44% of the voters we talked to responded they had a favorable impression of President Biden and 73% had a favorable impression of Senator Kelly. It is kind of interesting that Kelly is now generally polling this much above Biden. 12% of them had a favorable impression of their retiring Governor Doug Ducey while 35% had an unfavorable view.
In Georgia, 58% of the voters we talked to approved of the job President Biden was doing. 78% approved of the job Senator Warnock was doing. Only 18% approved of the job Governor Kemp was doing. 60% of the voters we talked to last week had a favorable impression of Stacey Abrams. The trend lines in SW Georgia are kind of interesting. Again, we are talking to households identified in the VAN model as Democratic and Independent voters (Georgia doesn’t have party registration). We do our best to eliminate Republican households although we do get mixed addresses, where someone is a Democrat (usually a female or younger voter) and someone is a Republican (usually male).
In North Carolina, 55% of the voters we talked to approved of the job President Biden was doing. 59% of the voters we talked to approved of the job Governor Cooper was doing. Since the Democratic nominee for Senate is now official, we also asked about Cheri Beasley, the former Chief Justice of the NC Supreme Court. 73% of the people we talked to had a favorable impression of Justice Beasley.
In Nevada, 57% of the voters we talked to approved of the job President Biden was doing. 48% had a favorable impression of the job Senator Cortez Masto was doing. 51% of voters approved of the job Governor Sisolak was doing. Both them had higher numbers during the time Nevada had their primary, so we can assume benefited from increased advertising and name recognition. Whereas 12% of the Nevada voters we talked to had a negative impression of President Biden (the week’s high), only 5% had a negative view of the senator and 11% had a negative view of the governor.
In Ohio, in our third week of canvassing, 50% of the voters we talked to approved of the job President Biden was doing. 15% disapproved. 71% approved of the job Tim Ryan was doing. 48% approved of the job that Governor DeWine was doing. 15% of the Democratic and Independent voters we talked to last Saturday disapproved of the job DeWine was doing. One commenter from Ohio has said that was surprising.
In Pennsylvania, in our sixth week of canvassing, 57% of the voters we talked to approved of the job President Biden was doing. 52% had a favorable opinion of John Fetterman, the Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate. 55% had a favorable view of Josh Shapiro, the Democratic nominee for Pennsylvania governor. Remember, we are knocking on Democratic and independent doors, and we endeavor to exclude (exclusively) Republican households.
In Wisconsin, in our seventh week of canvassing, 56% of the voters we talked to approved of the job President Biden was doing, 14% disapproved. 3% approved of the job Senator Johnson was doing while 58% of the voters we talked to disapproved of their senator. As you can see, the approval numbers for Johnson have been remarkably consistent. I fact, his numbers have been the most consistent of any candidate we have asked about. 52% approved of the job that Governor Evers was doing; 9% disapproved.
The trend lines are now starting to diverge again for President Biden’s approval ratings in the different states. 14 percentage points now separate Biden’s approval ratings in Arizona (week’s low) and Georgia (week’s high). Remember that we don’t knock on doors of Republican households even though there are definitely doors of mixed party households we canvass. But we are getting interesting feedback from voters who seem inclined to support the president. “He’s got to deliver,” said one voter in Wisconsin — a sentiment shared by others in not so different language.
Beating Trump isn’t enough any more. Having said that, we did have mentions of the former occupant of the Oval Office this week and someone even asked one of our volunteers if they (Bident and the f*cking moron) were going to run again.
263 people filled out new voter registration forms for their states during last weekend’s canvassing. For the month of June, we registered a total of 263 new voters at their doors. Another 595 voters updated their address, as required by HAVA. For the month of June, we re-registered a total of 875 new voters at their doors. We differentiate between the two because brand new voters are often ignored by campaigns and we hope to compensate for that somewhat by having volunteers send them post cards before the election and they are also getting robocalls thanking them for registering.
We collected 1,066 Constituent Service Request Forms this week. For the month of June, we collected 2,691 CSRs. In general, we send these to Democratic elected officials responsible for the requested functions, but if the appropriate office is held by a Republican, we still send it along. For Democrats, though, we encourage them to reach out immediately to the voter who filled out the CSR and let them know they are working on the issue. This credit-taking is enormously valuable to the Democratic office-holder.
We continue to walk with Incident Reports, and we ask people who say they are concerned about the upcoming general election if they want to fill one out. Last Saturday, we had 77 voters (mostly in Florida and Georgia) filled them out on last Saturday. For the month of June, we gathered 312 Incident Reports at the door. We pass along Incident Reports to the Lawyer’s Committee for Civil Rights and NALEO (those that correspond to Hispanic precincts), and send copies to state Democratic Party committees. But our purpose is to combine this information with the two independent databases of voting incidents to look for patterns before the election and use that information for warning district, state and U.S. attorneys’ offices that we could see those patterns resurface on election day. We will also use it to target Election Day Protection activity.
By starting early, and aiming towards super-compliance with these really, really onerous provisions in some states, Hope Springs from Field PAC seeks to undermine that strategy, while informing voters about the new laws and regulations aimed at them. There’s a lot of work to be done, but fortunately, the three states that are making it most difficult are also states in which you can knock on doors at least 10 months out of the year. And, with your help, we will be there, getting our people to super-comply with these restrictive provisions.
If you are able to support our efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please help:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/2022senateswing
Thank you for your support. This work depends on you!
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