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Pandemic Observations -- July 1, US States & Canadian Provinces: [1]

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Date: 2022-07-02

One More Time?!?

Once again it looks like Covid-19 may be embarked on yet another relentless rise here in the US, spurred on by the descendants of the Omicron variant that washed over us last Winter. 3 months ago, as the original Omicron tsunami was receding, we were averaging barely above 200,000 new cases per week, with a Test Positivity Rate (TPR) of just 3%. Now we’re about to exceed 800,000, and the TPR has shot up from 12% to 17% in just the past week — though so many states are no longer reporting this particular bit of data that it’s questionable whether the stat continues to contain any useful info at this point.

Even worse, serious/critical hospitalizations have more than doubled since our April lows, and now appear to be growing at an increasing rate; and even our weekly death toll has stopped its months long decline and appears to be heading back up, albeit at a considerably slower pace than either hospitalizations or new infections.

Unfortunately, neither vaccination status nor even recent prior exposure seems to be conferring all that much protection against new infections — necessitating continued mask wearing and social distancing among even the fully vaccinated if they don’t wish to chance a positive exposure and/or reinfection.

Even more worrisome, though the case fatality rate (CFR) for each new variant has generally been less than the preceding variant due to increased vaccination levels, better standards of care, and lower inherent lethality, this trend may not be holding for the latest Omicron variants — a disturbing number of US states, Canadian provinces, and foreign nations appear to be showing markedly higher CFR’s over the past 3 months relative to last Winter’s original Omicron wave. Hopefully I’ll have a more detailed analysis of this potentially troubling trend in a future diary soon.

Note that none of the Canadian provinces have provided any new updated data this week (just national data via worldometer), so don’t imagine the pandemic has somehow suddenly disappeared from our Northern Neighbor — indeed, they’re seeing an even larger relative rise in their CFR’s than most of the US states.

US States & Canadian Provinces: Jun 25 - Jul 1 New Deaths 7-Day D/1M 7-Day Deaths Weekly Change 14-Day Change Change fr Max Canada USA NN NM FL PR MI VA TN GA WA NV HI KY MA NH AZ WY PA ID OR NY IL NJ AR WI CA MS OH AL ME UT RI MD LA NC MN WV NE IN TX DC ND IA KS SD VT DE MT MO OK SC CT CO AK QC ON AB BC MB SK NS NL NB US.Hos 3.8 8.0 22.2 19.6 18.6 17.7 17.4 13.0 12.6 12.5 11.7 10.7 10.6 10.1 9.0 8.8 8.7 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.3 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.7 6.4 6.3 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 4.6 4.5 4.1 4.0 3.8 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 1.6 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 145 2,640 4 41 400 60 174 111 86 132 89 33 15 45 62 12 63 5 109 15 35 140 91 63 21 40 264 19 74 30 8 19 6 34 26 58 26 8 8 27 111 2 2 8 7 2 1 1 1 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3,400 -2% 11% -20% 86% 0% 20% 152% 68% 79% 52% 25% -15% 0% 41% -15% 200% 21% 0% 4% 25% -38% 20% -9% -15% -32% 25% 51% 27% 106% -9% 300% 111% -33% -17% 37% 427% -37% -79% 100% -45% 37% 200% -71% 700% 250% -60% -67% -83% -75% 400% 200% -100% -100% 0% 0% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100% 0% 9% -52% -2% -15% -12% 109% 48% 9% 230% 8% 37% 28% 6% 74% -50% -14% -22% 12% 312% -10% 278% 41% -23% 17% -11% 26% -21% -12% 86% 21% 146% -57% 36% 5% -10% 25% -83% -5% 9% -46% 25% 46% -36% 50% -52% -82% 2% -73% -60% -84% -94% -96% -80% -51% -100% -100% -65% -69% -76% -61% -78% -68% -7% -87% -100% 10% -94% -93% -96% -91% -87% -69% -84% -93% -96% -93% -86% -96% -81% -97% -95% -87% -97% -94% -93% -93% -95% -98% -93% -97% -97% -96% -93% -95% -95% -97% -95% -93% -96% -93% -94% -92% -95% -98% -98% -96% -96% -98% -99% -99% -99% -99% -96% -99% -99% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100% -87% Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62

D/1M = New Covid-19 deaths per 1 million population over prior 7 days

C/1M = New Covid-19 cases per 1 million population over prior 7 days

Weekly Change = Net change from previous week's stats

14-Day Change = Net Change from previous 14-day period

Change fr Max = Net change from week of peak deaths or new cases

Bold = States/Provs experiencing significant upward movement in cases and/or deaths

US.Hosp = Serious/Critical cases

NN = Navajo Nation (population estimate 180,000)

USA data derived from worldometer, Canadian data from Canada Covid-19 Interactive Data

Note: Only provinces with >250,000 population included

US States & Canadian Provinces: Jun 25 - Jul 1 New Cases 7-Day C/1M 7-Day Cases Weekly Change 14-Day Change Change fr Max Canada USA PR NN HI AK FL CA NM LA MS CO NV AL OR WA DC TX TN NJ AR UT VA NC AZ IL WV KY NY MT GA ND WY OK ID RI DE WI NE KS MD IA IN MA PA OH MI SD NH ME MN VT CT MO SC QC ON AB BC MB SK NS NL NB 517 2,412 6,536 4,117 3,787 3,550 3,466 3,329 3,061 3,005 2,832 2,698 2,675 2,607 2,583 2,580 2,512 2,491 2,435 2,435 2,386 2,304 2,303 2,302 2,269 2,227 2,205 2,169 2,066 1,991 1,975 1,942 1,928 1,891 1,876 1,835 1,819 1,800 1,796 1,712 1,692 1,656 1,635 1,564 1,476 1,474 1,435 1,417 1,129 1,108 1,089 1,022 894 268 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19,474 798,380 22,138 741 5,362 2,597 74,447 131,522 6,419 13,968 8,427 15,536 8,238 12,783 10,894 19,644 1,773 72,216 16,632 21,628 7,201 7,388 19,654 24,141 16,514 28,216 3,951 9,692 40,194 2,128 20,971 1,480 1,116 7,483 3,353 1,944 1,771 10,483 3,474 4,988 10,229 5,225 11,010 10,779 18,900 17,225 14,353 1,254 1,536 1,490 6,142 638 3,188 1,645 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13% 8% -7% 1% -2% 22% 1% 1% -3% 1% 9% -34% 14% 13% 0% 7% 30% 22% 18% 12% 28% 9% 13% 26% 7% 4% -5% -12% 12% 8% 14% 43% -5% 28% 18% 6% 8% -7% 13% 20% 18% 4% 23% 7% 26% 7% 34% 29% 34% 21% -35% 4% -24% -83% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100% -14% 11% -8% 39% -21% 33% 16% 38% 29% 103% 95% 31% 11% 80% 11% 6% 4% 73% 51% -12% 85% 28% 3% -6% 29% -10% 31% 13% -20% 30% 28% 39% -22% 83% 59% -39% -24% -11% 48% 34% -13% 9% 27% -38% -8% 4% -33% 47% -38% -45% -30% -62% -46% -40% -35% -51% -72% -75% -73% -80% -75% -51% -51% -73% -95% -86% -68% -78% -85% -88% -86% -84% -87% -89% -87% -86% -84% -89% -85% -83% -89% -86% -90% -90% -89% -93% -86% -91% -89% -90% -88% -91% -92% -87% -88% -91% -88% -92% -83% -95% -92% -94% -90% -93% -89% -89% -91% -94% -91% -92% -92% -92% -95% -94% -95% -96% -96% -98% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100% Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62

Following are the Power Rankings for the top 25 States/Provinces driving the pandemic in the US & Canada in terms of total new cases and new deaths during the past week:

Top 25 States/Provs: Jun 25 - Jul 1 New Deaths 7-Day Deaths 14.Day Inc %Tot <<>> New Cases 7-Day Cases 14.Day Inc %Tot FL CA MI NY GA VA TX PA IL WA TN OH AZ NJ MA PR NC KY NM WI OR MD NV AL IN 400 264 174 140 132 111 111 109 91 89 86 74 63 63 62 60 58 45 41 40 35 34 33 30 27 1.1% 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 1.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.6% 2.5% 0.3% 0.5% 0.8% 0.5% 1.2% 0.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 14.4% 9.5% 6.2% 5.0% 4.7% 4.0% 4.0% 3.9% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1% 2.7% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 1.0% Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 CA FL TX NY IL NC PR NJ GA VA WA PA OH TN AZ CO MI LA AL IN OR MA WI MD KY 131,522 74,447 72,216 40,194 28,216 24,141 22,138 21,628 20,971 19,654 19,644 18,900 17,225 16,632 16,514 15,536 14,353 13,968 12,783 11,010 10,894 10,779 10,483 10,229 9,692 2.7% 2.3% 1.9% 1.3% 1.6% 1.5% 6.3% 1.7% 1.5% 2.0% 2.3% 1.1% 1.2% 1.5% 1.5% 2.6% 1.0% 2.2% 1.8% 1.1% 2.8% 1.1% 1.3% 1.7% 1.5% 10.6% 8.2% 7.5% 7.4% 6.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.7% 3.7% 3.3% 2.7% 2.4% 2.4% 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1%

14-Day Increase = Net increase of current 14-day numbers over prior cumulative totals

%Total = Share of US & Canadian Totals

[END]
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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/7/2/2107976/-Pandemic-Observations-July-1-US-States-Canadian-Provinces

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