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365 Days of Climate Awareness 323 –Boundary Conditions: Emissions Scenarios [1]
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Date: 2022-07-02
There are several very important sets of boundary conditions. These include:
Topography (treated as constant)
Ocean bathymetry (treated as constant)
Incoming solar radiation (varies with time)
Land-use scenarios (change over time)
Emissions scenarios (change over time)
The last two themselves are the results of two sets of complex projections. One is called “Shared
Socioeconomic Pathways” (SSPs). These pathways represent varying levels of international cooperation and technological progress:
Population trends
Economic activity
Technological development
Political and social will for change
The five SSPs are:
SSP1: sustainable pathway. Global commons ar preserved, limits of nature are respected. SSP2: medium pathway. Limited cooperation between states. Global population growth is moderate and environmental systems degrade. SSP3: Regional rivalry. Nationalism and regional conflicts push global issues into the background. SSP4: Inequality. Contrast between globally cooperating societies and those stalling is widening. Environmental policies address local problems in some regions, but not in others. SSP5: Fossil-fueled Development. Innovations, technological progress and an energy-intensive lifestyle worldwide based on increased use of fossil fuels.
The second set of projections are called “Representative Carbon Pathways” (RCPs), and these represent different climatic scenarios with various levels of radiative forcings (global heat gain, post #91). They are stated as temperature gains over 1750 average, and range from 1.9°C/3.4°F to 8.5°C/15.3°F. Treating these two broad topics—socioeconomic factors and environmental impacts—separately produced a wide range of possible global warming scenarios. In the climate models, both SSPs and RCPs are boundary conditions which help determine the state of the world climate by 2100.
Tomorrow: West Virginia v. the EPA.
Be brave, be steadfast, and be well.
Sources:
Practitioner's guide to climate model scenarios
Carbon Brief - how climate models work
The five climate model scenarios
Carbon Brief - shared socioeconomic pathways
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