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Ukraine Invasion Day 129: Lysychansk becoming encircled [1]
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Date: 2022-07-01
A major Ukrainian counteroffensive will happen but the disinformation seems to have leveled out as the Russians have left Snake Island.
Key Takeaways
Russian forces continued to conduct offensive operations in settlements south and southwest of Lysychansk in an effort to encircle the city and sever Ukrainian logistics routes on June 1. Head of the Luhansk Oblast Administration Serhiy Haidai reported that Russian forces continued to launch assaults on the Lysychansk Oil Refinery and secured their positions in the northwestern and southeastern parts of the plant.[6] The Russian Defense Ministry claimed that Russian forces seized the Lysychansk Gelatin Factory, but Ukrainian officials stated that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian reconnaissance-in-force against the plant.[7] Russian forces attacked Topolivka, the northern part of Vovchoyarivka, and Maloryazantseve, and are interdicting Ukrainian lines of communication along the Topolivka-Lysychansk road.[8] Russian Telegram channel Rybar claimed that fighting is ongoing in Bila Hora, just southeast of Lysychansk, which if true, would indicate that Ukrainian forces continue to defend the western bank of the Siverskyi Donetsk river.[9] Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Ambassador to Russia Rodion Miroshnik claimed that Russian forces established a bridgehead from Synetskyi in the area of the Lysychansk helipad, situated in the northeastern part of the city, and began advancing southwest to the city center.[10] Miroshnik additionally claimed that Russian forces conducted operations near the Lysychansk Rubber Factory in the southeast part of the city. Russian sources continued to issue numerous reports of a successful Russian river crossing near Kreminna, but ISW cannot independently verify such claims with available satellite imagery.[11] Chechen fighters published a video claiming to have seized Pryvillya and reached Novodruzhensk on July 1.[12] The Ukrainian General Staff reported shelling in Pryvillya, however.[13] understandingwar.org/...
Russian forces maintained artillery fire and launched airstrikes along the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway, but have not completely severed the road as of July 1.[14] Haidai reported that Russian forces have not reached the T1302 on the ground, likely due to Ukrainian resistance in settlements along the highway.[15] Both Russian and Ukrainian sources stated that Russian forces shelled Ukrainian positions in the vicinity of Bakhmut and along the T1302.[16] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to improve their tactical positions to support the advance towards Pokrovske and launched airstrikes on Pokrovske and Klynove.[17] Rybar claimed that Wagner Group forces attempted to break through Ukrainian defenses in the Bakhmut direction, but Ukrainian officials did not report active ground assault east of the city on July 1.[18] understandingwar.org/...
Russian forces continued to shell Ukrainian positions around Kharkiv City and did not conduct offensive operations north or northeast of the city on July 1.[24] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces have concentrated units of the Western Military District (WMD) around Kharkiv City to defend previously-occupied positions and maintain systematic artillery fire.[25] The Ukrainian General Staff added that Russian forces launched an airstrike on Mospanove, approximately 55km southeast of Kharkiv City, likely in an effort to suppress Ukrainian counteroffensives in the area.[26] Kharkiv Oblast Administration Head Oleg Synegubov stated that Ukrainian forces have not lost any liberated territories around Kharkiv City since their liberation in May. His claim is likely untrue; ISW has assessed that Russian forces recaptured Ternova and Izbytske in June.[27] understandingwar.org/...
Russian forces conducted artillery and missile strikes across the Southern Axis on July 1. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Russian Tu-22 aircraft launched three Kh-22 cruise missiles at the Serhiivka resort village of the Bilhorod-Dnistrovsky district of Odesa Oblast and struck a residential area, killing 16 people and injuring 38.[28] Russian forces also conducted artillery strikes on various areas of Kherson, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.[29] Head of the Mykolaiv Oblast Administration Vitaly Kim reported that Russian forces fired 12 missiles at Mykolaiv Oblast over the course of the day on July 1.[30] understandingwar.org/...
A new Reuters investigation has found that at least 14 Russian weapons companies have not faced any Western sanctions.
Nearly three dozen leaders of Russian weapons firms and at least 14 defense companies have not been sanctioned by the United States, the European Union or the United Kingdom,” the Reuters report said.
One of the weapons moguls who has not been sanctioned is Alan Lushnikov, the largest shareholder of Kalashnikov Concern JSC, the original manufacturer of the famous AK-47 assault rifle.
According to records reviewed by Reuters, Lushnikov owns a 75% stake in the firm.
The company, which was sanctioned by the US in 2014 - the year that Russia invaded and annexed Crimea, accounts for 95% of Russia’s production of machine guns, sniper rifles, pistols and other handheld firearms.
The US announced on Friday that it will provide Ukraine with an additional $820 million in military aid.
The new aid package will include new surface-to-air missile systems and counter-artillery radars to respond to Russia’s long-range strikes in its war against Ukraine.
The Pentagon also announced that it will provide up to 150,000 rounds of millimeter artillery ammunition to Ukrainians.
Friday’s announcement marks the 14th military package sent from the Defense Department’s stocks to Ukraine since August 2021. In total, the US has provided over $8.8 billion in weapons and military training to Ukraine.
As part of the new package, the U.S. will purchase two systems known as NASAMS, a Norwegian-developed anti-aircraft system that is also used to protect the airspace around the White House and Capitol in Washington.
The Pentagon will also provide additional ammunition for medium-range rocket systems it provided Ukraine in June, known as the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS.
x “I think it took too long to get them here…had they been here much earlier, I think we would’ve already been done with this war.”@ikhurshudyan on HIMARS
https://t.co/BNOeq1hpjZ — Alex Horton (@AlexHortonTX) July 1, 2022
Ukraine’s outspoken ambassador to Germany, a talkshow staple who was central to the public debates that led Berlin to step up weapons deliveries to Kyiv, is facing criticism for defending World War Two Ukrainian nationalist leader Stepan Bandera in an interview.
Reuters reports:
Andriy Melnyk is easily the best known ambassador in Berlin, known for robust social media exchanges in which he condemned as appeasers politicians and intellectuals who opposed arming Ukraine for its fight against Russian invaders.
But an interview with journalist blogger Tilo Jung published on Thursday in which he said Bandera was not a “mass murderer of Poles and Jews” caused uproar and drew condemnation from both the Polish government and the Israeli embassy.
“The statement made by the Ukrainian ambassador is a distortion of the historical facts, belittles the Holocaust and is an insult to those who are murdered by Bandera and his people,” the embassy wrote on Twitter.
Though he spent much of World War Two in a Nazi prison, Bandera headed the radical wing of the Organisation of Ukrainian Nationalists which killed tens of thousands of Polish civilians during the war.
Living in Munich in exile after the war, he was a figurehead of Ukraine’s anti-Soviet insurgency which fought Moscow in partisan actions into the 1950s. He was assassinated by the Soviet KGB in 1959.
Even Ukraine’s foreign ministry distanced itself from Melnyk’s remarks, saying they did not reflect its views. Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau thanked his Ukrainian counterpart for his intervention over the “false statements.”
Melnyk, 46, has become a central figure in debates over Germany’s obligations to Ukraine, credited with using his pulpit as envoy of a nation fighting foreign invasion to keep up the pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who despite initial reluctance has kept boosting arms deliveries to Ukraine.
At least 21 people, including two children, have been killed after Russian missile strikes in Odesa in southern Ukraine, Odesa’s military spokesperson, Sergei Bratchuk, said. A 12-year-old boy was among the dead, he added. A further 38 people, including six children and a pregnant woman, were hospitalised with injuries after two Russian missiles struck a multistorey block of flats and a recreation centre. The Kremlin has denied responsibility for the strike.
Eight people have been confirmed dead after a Russian missile strike on a residential building in Ukraine’s southern city of Mykolaiv on Wednesday, according to local officials. Mayor Oleksandr Senkevych had previously said eight missiles had hit the city, adding that the residential building appeared to have been hit by a Russian X-55 cruise missile.
www.theguardian.com/...
x “if Ukraine can be kept supplied with arms and ammunition and uses its new firepower judiciously, it could recapture pockets of territory, sow chaos in Russia’s rear and inflict unsustainable losses of men and materiel on a Russian army stretched thin.”
https://t.co/RV0DHtbr7I — Bianna Golodryga (@biannagolodryga) June 30, 2022
x New: Russia is increasing attacks on Ukrainian arms depots but in response, Ukraine is dispersing & decentralizing its weapons arsenal across an array of warehouses in an effort to lessen the losses caused by any one Russian strike, per US officials
https://t.co/cl5aBD6st4 — John Hudson (@John_Hudson) July 1, 2022
x This marks the first time Russia has signaled that it is suffering huge military losses in its war against Ukraine.
Russia Admits It's Running Out of Weapons in Ukraine War
https://t.co/E5kTIyvA5A — Jack Katan (@catania_guido) July 1, 2022
x Russian field MLRS ammunition storage destroyed in Donbas
The Operative Command South has shared a video showing fire at a Russian storage of MLRS Uragan rockets, the artillery fire was adjusted with the help of Ukrainian drone Valkiria
https://t.co/EZMagUtq6l pic.twitter.com/xhqSTQ1S7w — Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) July 1, 2022
x Ukraine Situation Report: U.S. Confirms NASAMS Air Defense System Transfer
https://t.co/JAboPPk9ga — Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) July 1, 2022
x Ukrainian Forces are striking positions of russians near #Kherson airport - #Chornobayivka.
Explosions have been reported since early afternoon. — Euromaidan PR (@EuromaidanPR) July 1, 2022
[END]
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