(C) Daily Kos
This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered.
. . . . . . . . . .



GOTV: make the Senate lean Democratic... finally it's getting bad for the GOP [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags']

Date: 2022-07-01

I guess #8 could be McMullin unseating Mike Lee in UT, and then thanks to a serious of bizarre events like McConnell antagonizing him, he *somehow* decides to caucus with Democrats. But this is getting into resistlib fan fiction territory.

Democrats argue that messy and expensive GOP primaries will leave Republican nominees bruised heading into the general election. (Democrats also had a crowded primary in Pennsylvania, but it didn't attract anywhere near the level of spending or vitriol as the GOP contest.)

's approval rating was at 41%, with 59% disapproving, according to a , conducted by SSRS from April 28-May 1. Democrats know Republicans will tie them to him, which is one reason why a number of them broke with the White House on lifting , a Trump-era public health authority that allows border authorities to turn migrants back to Mexico or their home countries. After watching Republican candidates run to the right to try to win their party nods, Democrats are hoping to make general election matchups a contrast in candidates. But that gets harder to do if the national environment continues to work against the party. President Joe Biden 's approval rating was at 41%, with 59% disapproving, according to a CNN poll , conducted by SSRS from April 28-May 1. Democrats know Republicans will tie them to him, which is one reason why a number of themon lifting Title 42 , a Trump-era public health authority that allows border authorities to turn migrants back to Mexico or their home countries.

Senate contests are increasingly becoming nationalized affairs, so while candidate quality does matter (see No. 10 on this list), Democrats face a tough challenge in holding their razor-thin Senate majority, regardless of which Republicans they're facing.

CNN's ranking of the Senate seats most likely to flip saw a few changes in May, all in Republicans' favor. But the states that held May primaries remain in the same positions for now, with uncertainty still reigning in Pennsylvania. The ranking, which will be updated in June, is based on CNN's reporting and fundraising and advertising data, as well as historical data about how states and candidates have performed.

1. Pennsylvania

Incumbent: Republican Pat Toomey (retiring)

2. Georgia

Incumbent: Democrat Raphael Warnock

3. Nevada

Incumbent: Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto

4. Arizona

Incumbent: Democrat Mark Kelly

5. Wisconsin

Incumbent: Republican Ron Johnson

6. New Hampshire

Incumbent: Democrat Maggie Hassan

7. North Carolina

Incumbent: Republican Richard Burr (retiring)

8. Florida

Incumbent: Republican Marco Rubio

9. Ohio

Incumbent: Republican Rob Portman (retiring)

10. Missouri

Incumbent: Republican Roy Blunt (retiring)

www.cnn.com/...

Party Predictit Price Odds

With the 50/50 Senate, Democrats suffering any net loss of seats costs them the Chamber, meaning that there’s a lot at stake here for the party if they want to be able to confirm new cabinet secretaries or any judges after 2022.

The Senate map looks pretty small at first, with seven races rated Leans Democratic, Leans Republican, or Toss-up by the consensus of forecasters – four Democratic defenses and three Republican ones – but in reality, it will be four states that determine Senate control.

If Democrats are winning either of North Carolina or Wisconsin, they’re easily winning the Senate again, because they would be having the kind of night that means they held all their defensive seats and already gained Pennsylvania.

Similarly, if the GOP is winning New Hampshire, then they’ve already flipped at least one of – and likely all three of – Nevada, Arizona and Georgia before they even get to New Hampshire, so it would only determine size of the new majority, not if there will be a majority.

With that said, Democrats have to find three wins out of those four states. Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, where they have Democratic incumbents, and Pennsylvania, where Republicans are defending without an incumbent.

At 26 cents, Democrats are probably a value, because while they have to defend three seats that are dangerously unsafe for them and their only realistic pick-up chance is a state that barely voted for Biden, the GOP is doing its best to nominate beatable candidates.

[END]
---
[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/7/1/2107585/-GOTV-make-the-Senate-lean-Democratic-finally-it-s-getting-bad-for-the-GOP

Published and (C) by Daily Kos
Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified.

via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds:
gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/

You are viewing proxied material from magical.fish. The copyright of proxied material belongs to its original authors. Any comments or complaints in relation to proxied material should be directed to the original authors of the content concerned. Please see the disclaimer for more details.