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Ukraine Invasion Day 128: no one in LDNR recognizes the Texas People's Republic (yet) [1]
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Date: 2022-06-30
Despite their withdrawal, the Ukrainian defense of Severodonetsk inflicted heavy losses on the Russians, who have also withdrawn from Snake Island after a new bombardment. A Donbas separatist appeal to Texas for sovereign recognition only shows how little they know of US federalism but also the larger Russian goal of destabilizing the US.
Key Takeaways
Russian troops made limited gains within the Lysychansk Oil Refinery and around Lysychansk.
Russian forces continued offensive operations to the south and east of Bakhmut and to the north of Slovyansk.
Russian forces continued efforts to regain control of settlements north of Kharkiv City.
Ukrainian counteroffensives continue to force Russian troops on the Southern Axis to prioritize defensive operations.
Russian occupation authorities took measures to ensure further economic and financial integration of occupied areas into the Russian system.
Russian forces made limited gains within the Lysychansk Oil Refinery and continued offensive operations on and around Lysychansk on June 30.[8] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces had “partial success” on the territory of the Lysychansk Oil Refinery and control the northwestern and southeastern portions of the refinery.[9] Geolocated footage posted by Russian outlet RIA Novosti showed Russian and proxy forces of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) within the plant.[10] Russian troops are likely trying to drive through the northeastern corner of the refinery in order to advance into Lysychansk proper from the refinery.[11] Head of the Chechen Republic Ramzan Kadyrov also claimed that Chechen Akhmat Special Forces and the 2nd Corps of the LNR advanced towards Lysychansk from the northwest and crossed the Siverskyi Donetsk river around Kreminna and Stara Krasnyanka, both within 10km northwest of Lysychansk.[12] Kadyrov claimed that Russian and proxy forces control half of Privillya, and will continue efforts to advance on Lysychansk through Novodruzhesk from these positions in the northwest.[13] www.understandingwar.org/...
ISW - Russian forces are fighting within #Lysychansk itself and reportedly have reached a mine and a gelatin factory on the outskirts of the city, confirmed by NASA FIRMS #War_in_Ukraine
x Kharkiv, Kharkivska Oblast(00:01). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now !
https://t.co/rDn49M0f0w — Thomas Mutschler (@ThomasMutschler) July 1, 2022
Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv City (Russian objective: Defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum and prevent Ukrainian forces from reaching the Russian border)
Russian forces continued limited ground assaults to regain positions north of Kharkiv City on June 30.[23] Russian Telegram channels claimed that Russian forces took control of Dementiivka (20km north of Kharkiv City) between June 29 and June 30.[24] Ukrainian sources disputed this claim and stated that fighting is ongoing in Dementiivka, indicating that the current frontlines in northern Kharkiv Oblast continue to be highly contested.[25] Russian and Ukrainian forces reportedly clashed near the international border and fought for control of Udy, Prudyanka, Pytomnyk, Tsupivka, and Velky Prokhody.[26] Russian forces additionally conducted air, artillery, and missile strikes against Ukrainian positions and civilian infrastructure throughout northern Kharkiv Oblast.[27] www.understandingwar.org/...
29-06-2022 24 hour NASA FIRMS data for the 🇺🇦 Bakhmut-Lysychansk region firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#t:adv;m:a…
Russian forces continued offensive operations east of Bakhmut on June 30.[14] Deputy Chief of Main Operations Department of the Ukrainian General Staff Brigadier General Oleksiy Gromov noted that Russian forces around Bakhmut have a distinct advantage in terms of force and means.[15] Gromov stated that Russian forces are conducting operations towards Soledar, which lies just northeast of Bakhmut along the T0513 Bakhmut-Siversk highway, and suggests that Russian forces additionally seek to interdict Ukrainian lines of communication along the T0513.[16] Russian troops also unsuccessfully fought for control of Klynove and Novoluhanske, both southeast of Bakhmut.[17] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a series of Russian assaults on the Mykolaivka-Spirne, Volodymyrivka-Pokrovske lines northeast of Bakhmut and around Dolomytne and the Vuhledar Power Plant south of Bakhmut.[18] These limited gains around Bakhmut may indicate that Russian forces may soon seek to set conditions for an offensive operation towards Bakhmut itself, although they are likely more focused in the short term on interdicting and controlling lines of communication emanating from Bakhmut. www.understandingwar.org/...
Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Objective: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts against Ukrainian counterattacks)
Russian forces continued to prioritize defensive operations along the Southern Axis on June 30.[28] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command stated that Ukrainian forces have reestablished control over Potemkyne (northwestern Kherson Oblast) and that Ukrainian troops are continuing to gradually advance and place pressure on Russian forces to maintain defensive lines.[29] The Russian grouping in Zaporizhia similarly focused on defensive operations and fired on Ukrainian positions along the frontline in Zaporizhia.[30] Russian forces conducted a series of missile, artillery, and airstrikes across Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Odesa Oblasts.[31] The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that the Russian grouping on Snake Island withdrew on June 30 as a gesture of ”goodwill” to the international community.[32]
The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Russian forces are conducting a wide-scale “agitation” to recruit men willing to sign military contracts in Transnistria.[33] The GUR stated that Russian actors are disseminating information on signing military contracts through Transnistrian media, mail brochures, and advertising in public spaces, as well as in meetings held with employees of industrial and agricultural enterprises.[34] Russian authorities likely hope to leverage pro-Russian sentiment in Transnistria to support “covert mobilization” efforts. www.understandingwar.org/...
x Won’t it be ironic if the United States then bails under GOP authoritarian rule.
https://t.co/xMZdmUsqV0 — Kim Masters (@kimmasters) June 30, 2022
x Even Russian Army Bosses Were Shocked by Putin’s ‘Fucking Imbecile’ Troops
https://t.co/axvVCSA0Vx — #TuckFrump (@realTuckFrumper) June 30, 2022
x he Russian military most likely targeted a theater in Mariupol in mid-March where “hundreds” of people were sheltering despite knowing that there were civilians there, in what would be a war crime, Amnesty International said in a report on Thursday.
https://t.co/oXpaK8p85x — New York Times World (@nytimesworld) July 1, 2022
x People who think Russia sanctions “aren’t working” aren’t looking at all the data:
https://t.co/qlpMREE2CB — Ben Judah (@b_judah) June 30, 2022
x Russian warship... (you know the rest).
https://t.co/u1Ebfm13RP — Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) June 30, 2022
Ukrainian forces have pushed Russian forces from Snake Island, a strategic Black Sea island off the southern coast near the city of Odesa.
Russia portrayed the pullout from Snake Island off the port city of Odesa as a “goodwill gesture”. Ukraine’s military said the Russians fled the island in two speedboats after a barrage of Ukrainian artillery and missile strikes.
Ukraine’s win will weaken any plans Russia may have for a future land attack on that stretch of coastline, Ukrainian officials say.
Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, the commander of Ukraine’s armed forces, said Ukrainian-made Bohdana howitzers had played an important role in routing Russian forces from Snake Island, and he thanked foreign partners for their support.
www.theguardian.com/...
x #UPDATE Russia has announced it is pulling its forces from Ukraine's Snake Island, calling it a "goodwill gesture" to allow Kyiv to export agricultural products.
📸 Satellite image shows Snake Island in the Black Sea pic.twitter.com/zZleL8rtMK — AFP News Agency (@AFP) June 30, 2022
x That the Russian military & its much-touted Black Sea Fleet couldn't secure an island 170 miles from its homeport from a war-torn adversary with fixed-wing combat aircraft numbering in the dozens & no real operable Navy is an absolute stunning failure of massive proportions. — Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) June 30, 2022
And yes, it is easier said than done. Interdiction of artillery in the coastal area of Ukraine would have been necessary, and as noted months ago, Russia is very poorly equipped to do this at considerable distances. But also, another constant reminder of how...
how poor Russian air defenses performed here. While their point defenses clearly were beefed up, there was no real area air defense over that region it seemed. Moskva's sinking likely made this worse, but how operable its systems were is still up for debate.
Russia's inability to extend its airpower beyond short ranges against dynamic (moving) land targets has just neutered them in so many ways.
With no ability to execute & sustain an integrated air campaign to sanitize the area within artillery range of the island, which would have included targeting/intel gathering, battlefield interdiction (strike), and SEAD/DEAD/EW operations, lowly artillery largely made holding...
Otherwise, Russia would have had to hold/occupy that area of the Ukrainian coast. HIMARS made the circle markedly larger. the island just too costly and arguably worthless, of course with some help from Ukrainian airpower.Otherwise, Russia would have had to hold/occupy that area of the Ukrainian coast. HIMARS made the circle markedly larger.
• • •
x Russian missile strike kills 10 in Ukraine’s Odesa, official says
https://t.co/iVbdG592Kn — The Globe and Mail (@globeandmail) July 1, 2022
x The Russian fascist invaders conduct offensives near Verkhnyokam'yanka and Lysychans'k. Hostilities continue.
Ukrainian defenders repulsed offensives on Klynove, Novoluhans'ke and the Vuhlehirs'ka power station, inflicting significant losses and forcing the rashists to retreat. pic.twitter.com/8GS553SJwY — Michael MacKay (@mhmck) June 30, 2022
x Putin says "Everything [in #Russia's war on #Ukraine] is going according to plan."
- War now in 5th month
- 15,000+ Russian soldiers KIA
- Russian retreat in north
- Major arms flows to Ukraine
- NATO enlarging
- Russia faces heavy sanctions
Have to wonder: what was the plan? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/75ldI1NIwV — Steven Pifer (@steven_pifer) June 30, 2022
x How have alliances changed since the Cold War? Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, @BrunoTertrais analyzes modern alliances in today's multipolar world and assesses whether they bring the world closer to conflict or stability.
https://t.co/v3H0mqeekG — Europe Center (@ACEurope) July 1, 2022
x Ukraine's electricity export routes to the EU will soon move from Romania to Slovakia and Hungary
This directly targets the two countries that were most resistant to an EU embargo on Russian oil — Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) June 30, 2022
[END]
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