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I refuse to go along with the following prediction: [1]
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Date: 2022-06-30
That Democrats are going to get wiped out in November.
It is rightwing propaganda, fed to us every day and every night, by people in rightwing, and mainstream media. It is repeated by people who want to sound smart, and/or, do not know “typical people” like all of us on this board. It is spouted by the same operators who could not get enough Trumpists in roadside diners.
Team: we are all streetsmart enough to rise above this one. And I am not singling out anybody, or indicting this board specifically. I just wanted to crank out a quick diary to help keep us all thinking clearly.
No one can predict the future, because it has not happened yet. Accurate “predictions” are guesses, based on any number of heuristics or models. Such devices are not necessarily useless, they are just not infallible, far from it. (I will not even approach the nettlesome topic of polling accuracy….).
The conventional wisdom lectures us that the party in power gets steamed in the mid-terms. Maybe in more normal times. I submit that the times we are in are perfectly abnormal, therefore the conventional wisdom is worthless, if it was ever worth anything at all.
Could a red wave occur? Of course! I, personally, don’t see it, but I don’t value my own predictions any more than the conventional wisdom. The future is unknown. It always has been, and it always will be.
No one knows the future. A prediction is a guess-every time.
[END]
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[1] Url:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/6/30/2107549/-I-refuse-to-go-along-with-the-following-prediction
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