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Ukraine Invasion Day 127: Russia's incremental gains despite Putin wanting the whole country [1]
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Date: 2022-06-29
Appearances are deceiving, as Russia digs deeper into its soviet era materiel stocks and has diminishing combat power. The Donbas could be the best they can achieve in terms of annexation, but the question remains whether this war can lead to a peace with pre-2014 borders.
Key Takeaways
Continued Russian offensive operations around Kharkiv are expending Russia’s limited offensive combat capability for extremely limited gains. The diversion of Russian offensive combat power to secondary theaters in Ukraine may hasten the culmination of Russian offensive operations in the Donbas. Russian forces continued offensive operations to regain control of settlements north of Kharkiv City on June 29, indicating that the Kremlin still holds territorial ambitions beyond the Donbas. Russian forces conducted an assault on Dementiivka, about 15km directly north of Kharkiv City.[23] Russian Telegram channel Rybar claimed that the assault was successful, but Kharkiv Oblast Administration Head Oleg Synegubov stated that Ukrainian forces repelled the attack.[24] While ISW cannot independently confirm the status of control of Dementiivka, control of individual settlements north of Kharkiv City along the frontline is likely highly contested. Russian forces additionally fought for control of Velyki Prokhody, Tsupivka, Pytomnik, and Ruska Lozova and shelled areas of Kharkiv City and surrounding settlements.[25] Continued battles for control of such settlements to the north of Kharkiv City suggests that while the Kremlin claims to be prioritizing the capture of the Donbas, it also seeks to regain control of Ukrainian territory outside Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts.[26] understandingwar.org/...
The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on June 28 that the Kremlin is setting conditions to annex areas of Kherson and Zaporizhia into the Russian Federation under the template of the pre-1917 “Tavriia Gubernia.”[1] The Tavriia (or Tauride) Gubernia was a historical province of the Russian Empire.[2] Under the Tavriia Gubernia scenario, the left bank of Kherson Oblast and part of Zaporizhia Oblast would be directly annexed to the Russian Federation, likely as a single unit.[3] The Ukrainian Resistance Center stated that Russian authorities are preparing for a pseudo-referendum to set conditions for the annexation of the Tavriia Gubernia (as opposed to proxy “people‘s republics“). The Russians are also requiring Ukrainian citizens in southern Ukraine to open bank accounts with Russian state-owned Promsvyazbank.[4] Head of Ukraine’s Kherson Oblast Administration Hennadiy Lahuta reported that Russian forces have locked down civilian traffic in northern Kherson Oblast and are not allowing anyone to enter or exit occupied territory, which may be an additional attempt to control the civilian population in preparation for annexation measures.[5] understandingwar.org/...
Russian forces continued to focus on defensive operations and took measures to reinforce their grouping along the Southern Axis on June 29.[27] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces deployed one battalion tactical group (BTG) to the Kryvyi Rih direction, likely in order to support operations near the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border in Vysokopillya and Potomkyne.[28] Russian forces conducted ground assaults near the Zaporizhia-Donetsk Oblast border near Vuhledar and reportedly took control of Shevchenko in western Donetsk Oblast.[29] Russian forces conducted artillery and missile strikes against Ukrainian positions and civilian infrastructure in northeastern Zaporizhia Oblast near the Huliapole-Orikhiv line.[30] Russian forces also conducted missile strikes against various areas of Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, and Mykolaiv Oblasts.[31] The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Russian forces moved an additional S-300VM anti-ballistic missile battery to Mykolaiv Oblast.[32] understandingwar.org/...
x ✍️Russian Invasion - Day 126 | Summary of the situation + detailed maps. #UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine
Available on
https://t.co/S5mZkARYS5 — MilitaryLand.net (@Militarylandnet) June 29, 2022
x Zelensky to NATO: “Just think about one fact now: today, a country that is not a member of NATO, albeit with your support, has been holding back a state for more than four months…And we are holding back Russia from destroying us and from destroying you.” — Natasha Bertrand (@NatashaBertrand) June 29, 2022
WASHINGTON, June 29 (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin still wants to seize most of Ukraine, but his forces are so degraded by combat that they likely can only achieve incremental gains in the near term, the top U.S. intelligence officer said Wednesday.
Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, outlining the current U.S. intelligence assessment of the more than four-month war, said that the consensus of U.S. spy agencies is that it will grind on "for an extended period of time."
"In short, the picture remains pretty grim and Russia's attitude toward the West is hardening," Haines told a Commerce Department conference.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelinskiy this week told U.S. President Joe Biden and other G7 leaders that he wants the war over by the end of the year.
But Haines' comments suggested that the billions of dollars in modern arms being supplied by the United States and other countries to Zelinskiy's forces may not give them the ability to turn the tide against Russia any time soon.
[...]
"We think he has effectively the same political goals that we had previously, which is to say that he wants to take most of Ukraine," Haines said.
Russian forces, however, have been so degraded by more than four months of combat that it is unlikely they can achieve Putin's goal any time soon, Haines said in her first public assessment of the war since May.
"We perceive a disconnect between Putin's near-term military objectives in this area and his military's capacity, a kind of mismatch between his ambitions and what the military is able to accomplish," she said.
Haines said U.S. intelligence agencies see three possible scenarios, the most likely being a grinding conflict in which Russian forces "make incremental gains, with no breathrough."
The other scenarios include a major Russian breakthrough and Ukraine succeeding in stabilizing the frontlines while achieving small gains, perhaps near the Russian-held city of Kherson and other areas of southern Ukraine.
It will take years for Russia to rebuild its forces, she said.
"During this period, we anticipate that they're going to be more reliant on asymmetric tools that they have, such as cyber attacks, efforts to control energy, even nuclear weapons in order to try to manage and project power and influence globally," Haines said.
[...]
Haines' comments came after a summit of NATO leaders on Wednesday branded Russia the most "direct threat" to alliance security and vowed to modernize Kyiv's forces, saying it stood behind their "heroic defense of their country." read more
www.reuters.com/…
x Smart question by @Olivia_Gazis who asks DNI Avril Haines & Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco if they consider the U.S. to be a net importer or exporter of far right ideology.
Haines: “I don’t know.”
Monaco: “I don’t know. But unfortunately, we’re too much of a consumer.” pic.twitter.com/MtQjNRHePN — Nicole Sganga (@NicoleSganga) June 29, 2022
x The European Court of Human Rights has accepted Ukraine's lawsuit against Russia
As part of this lawsuit, Ukraine is demanding, in addition to the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, monetary compensation to the victims
https://t.co/G8Twn9SoUr — Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) June 30, 2022
x The #Kremenchuk mall’s🇷🇺missile was a X-22/Kh-22. These are 1960s anti-ship missiles, which leads to believe #Russia is running out of armament.#Lavrov: They were for “a plant 1Km away” from the mall, the “original” target.
But these missiles don’t misfire on targets by 1Km! pic.twitter.com/KcZ7svdCIP — News from Ukraine (@uasupport999) June 29, 2022
MADRID/KYIV, June 29 (Reuters) - NATO on Wednesday branded Russia the biggest "direct threat" to Western security after its invasion of Ukraine and agreed plans to modernise Kyiv's beleaguered armed forces, saying it stood fully behind Ukrainians' "heroic defence of their country".
At a summit dominated by the invasion and the geopolitical upheaval it has caused, NATO also invited Sweden and Finland to join and pledged a seven-fold increase from 2023 in combat forces on high alert along its eastern flank against any future Russian attack.
In reaction, President Vladimir Putin said Russia would respond in kind if NATO set up infrastructure in Finland and Sweden after they join the U.S.-led military alliance. read more
Putin was quoted by Russian news agencies as saying he could not rule out that tensions would emerge in Moscow's relations with Helsinki and Stockholm over their joining NATO.
U.S. President Joe Biden announced more land, sea and air force deployments across Europe from Spain in the west to Romania and Poland bordering Ukraine.
These included a permanent army headquarters with accompanying battalion in Poland - the first full-time U.S. deployment on NATO's eastern fringes. read more
www.reuters.com/...
x “By reinforcing its troops and resupplying and maintaining its equipment, Ukraine may not be able to beat the Russians back, but it could deny them major gains, sapping their resources and will to fight.”
https://t.co/H7pXvJnNNt — Foreign Affairs (@ForeignAffairs) June 29, 2022
x Fear of confronting Putin will lead to Russian victory in Ukraine - Atlantic Council
https://t.co/8DL7XGaVWE — Jonathan Knight (@jondknight) June 29, 2022
x Russia systematically destroying UKR civilian population centers with massive cruise missiles and artillery. This deluded pundit sees it as cooperation. Russian State TV is “bizzaro world”. — Barry R McCaffrey (@mccaffreyr3) June 30, 2022
x The vast majority of Ukrainians – 89% – believe it would be unacceptable to reach a peace deal with Moscow by ceding Ukrainian territory — WSJ poll — KT "Special Intelligence Operation" (@KremlinTrolls) June 29, 2022
x Ukraine: What is the NASAMS air defence system?
https://t.co/cY7zuKcBSi — Mark Rabideau (@eirenicon) June 29, 2022
Ukrainian Warchive is a media project to preserve documentary photographs about the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The initiators are photographers Misha Pedan and Emine Ziyatdinova, as well as editor-in-chief of Zaborona Kateryna Sergatskova and co-founder of Bird in Flight Yevhen Safonov.
The development and launching of the platform was supported by the Swedish Institute and the Hasselblad Foundation.
zaborona.com/...
x 1. Small smoke plume from Snake Island dock
2. Small smoke plume
3. Vehicle by building on earlier satellite imagery from the 29th relocating to beach
2/ pic.twitter.com/WwePR7kFPu — Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK) June 30, 2022
x In Kharkiv region south of the Pechenihy Reservoir, the rashists shelled Bazaliivka, Ivanivka and Pryshyb.
–General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine operational info at 18:00 on June 29
Ukrainian advances on the route to Izyum constrain rashist offensives towards Slovyans'k. pic.twitter.com/i1hjw7TRga — Michael MacKay (@mhmck) June 29, 2022
x Lithuania has partially banned the transit of goods from mainland Russia to Kaliningrad Oblast due to the sanctions since June 17. — The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) June 29, 2022
x Ex-US NSA John Bolton on @itvpeston: “Russia is winning, if you define winning as gaining more ground than you're losing, and achieving your objectives. They may be losing in the court of public opinion… If this is losing, I'd hate to see what winning for the Russians would be." — Christopher Hope📝 (@christopherhope) June 29, 2022
x Poroshenko and his wife and son were found in a London restaurant.
Perhaps his son Mykhaylo Poroshenko,born in 2001, was looking for a mobilization point there.
Poroshenko is very nervous and aggresive,he attacked the journalist... pic.twitter.com/TL1yLrJpEr — AZ 🛰🌏🌍🌎 (@AZmilitary1) June 29, 2022
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https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/6/29/2107338/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-127-Russia-s-incremental-gains-despite-Putin-wanting-the-whole-country
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