Author Name: Carribean Channel, Cuba TV.
This story was originally published on canalcaribe.ict.cu. [1]

What will 2020 be like for Cuba?
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How is next year coming? It is a common question when we are about to conclude the last 12 month cycle. While regarding personal life it is difficult to predict, in political and economic terms, the signals are stronger, and this 2020 worries. The greatest uncertainty is in the economic, the main financial institutions, predict the beginning of a new global economic crisis, and eye, they are more than forecasts, there are the data: China, the big engine, grows at slower rates, Germany , the European locomotive, did not register the best results this year, nor did the United Kingdom, let alone in the middle of the Brexit crisis. In the case of Latin America, ECLAC forecasts growth, if we can call it that, of 0.1 percent and next year the low rates of around 1.4 percent will remain, which, of course, It could end in a much smaller number.

And how logical, the economy has an impact on politics. Right-wing governments, by ideology, interests and their own logic, will respond to that crisis with more neoliberal measures and that leads us to think that the social conflicts that we have seen ignite during 2019 will worsen. Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Brazil on the way , are polvorines that can explode with greater force; On the other hand, a crisis is also not good news for progressive governments, not for a Venezuela that is beginning to rebound, nor for Mexico with so many social debts and with the neighbor we already know, and less for an Argentina devastated by “macrismo” and that he will have to face a process of debt takeoff and negotiation, a debt that he will have to pay and to do so he needs sources of income, and that he will also have to face an oligarchic class that is not patriotic and blackmailed, unwilling to lend a hand.Cuba will not be oblivious to that environment. An economic crisis can have its impact on tourism, on investments and on the price of raw materials and products that we intend to export, however, the greatest impact will come from another of the great events that will mark 2020: the elections in U.S. Washington’s foreign policy, like everything in an election year, will revolve around the elections, and that is very dangerous with a president like Donald Trump. Its aggressiveness against socialism, against Venezuela and Cuba responds to electoral interests, responds to the objective of conquering that extremist vote of the community of Cuban origin, a sector that although not majority, is the one that concentrates the most economic power and most importantly Unfortunately, he is the one who votes with the most discipline against the disinterest of the other part of the Cuban community, who suffers from excesses and prefers to silence.If so far, every month the Trump administration announces a measure against Cuba, the trend is expected to worsen as the elections approach. Another element that makes us think of a more violent foreign policy is that the economic crisis also looms over the United States. Sooner or later Trump will explode into his hands, the false belief that he is responsible for the good state of the economy at this time will fall, when they are really the results of the policies applied by Obama. A president, with his characteristics and in that context, is logical that he becomes more aggressive to mobilize his bases.

(C) Cuba TV, Cuban state owned media.
[1] Url: https://www.canalcaribe.icrt.cu/en/what-will-2020-be-like-for-cuba/