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Republican Joni Ernst Edged Out by Democrat Zach Wahls in New Iowa Poll [1]

['Andrew Stanton', 'Newsweek Contributors', 'John Davenport']

Date: 2025-08-26 15:26:40-04:00

Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.

Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content.

GOP Senator Joni Ernst trailed Democratic state Senator Zach Wahls and was held to a tight race against other Democratic candidates in a new internal poll of the Iowa Senate race form Wahls' campaign.

Ernst Campaign Manager Bryan Kraber responded to the poll in a statement to Newsweek.

"The Selzer poll was known as the gold standard until it claimed a Dem could win Iowa in 2024. Look no further than how that turned out to know that Iowans fully embrace Republican policies over paying higher taxes or pure hogwash like allowing men in women's sports," he said.

A spokesperson for state Representative Josh Turek, another Democrat running for the nomination, told Newsweek he is in "striking distance of defeating Joni Ernst" after entering the race only weeks ago.

Newsweek reached out to each campaign included in the poll for comment via email.

Why It Matters

A Democratic victory in Iowa, a former swing state that has turned firmly red and backed President Donald Trump by double digits in 2024, will be an uphill climb—but Democrats will need to win in more conservative territory if they hope to win back a Senate majority next November. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 in the upper chamber.

Democrats are targeting GOP seats in Maine, which backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by about seven points, and North Carolina, which voted for Trump by about three points, as their top targets for the midterms. But no other GOP-held seats in single-digit Trump or Harris-won states are up for grabs, meaning Democrats must compete in double-digit Trump states like Alaska, Iowa, Ohio or Texas to flip control of the chamber.

But Iowa has not elected a Democratic senator since 2008 and backed Trump in each of his three presidential bids—including by 13 points last November, an indication of how Republican the state has become.

What To Know

The Senate race has drawn several Democratic candidates including Wahls, who represents an Iowa City-based district in the state Senate; Nathan Sage, a veteran and executive director of Knoxville, Iowa's chamber of commerce; Jackie Norris, a teacher and school board member; and state Representative Josh Turek.

A new Public Policy Polling survey showed Ernst in a tight race against Democratic challengers. She held narrow leads over each candidate on the initial ballot, which provided names without further information.

In that poll, Ernst led Wahls by one point (43 percent to 42 percent), Sage by four points (45 percent to 41 percent), Norris by three points (45 percent to 42 percent) and Turek by four points (45 percent to 41 percent).

Senator Joni Ernst speaks during a confirmation hearing for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on January 14, 2025. Senator Joni Ernst speaks during a confirmation hearing for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on January 14, 2025. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

However, when voters were told more about each candidate, Wahls jump out to a lead over Ernst (45 percent to 43 percent).

Ernst still led other candidates on the informed ballot. She led Sage by two points (44 percent to 42 percent) and both Norris and Turek by one percent (44 percent to 43 percent).

The poll surveyed 572 Iowa voters from August 18 to August 19 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

Republicans are favored to hold the Iowa Senate seat, according to Kalshi betting odds, which give the GOP a 74 percent chance and Democrats a 26 percent chance of winning next November.

The poll was commissioned by the Wahls campaign, reported the Iowa City publication Little Village Magazine.

While Ernst has not formally launched her reelection campaign, she has appointed a campaign manager and raised $1.8 million in the first half of 2025, the Associated Press reported.

Democrats remain hopeful that a strong national environment, fueled by Trump's faltering approval rating and economic concerns surrounding tariffs, can make the race more competitive than expected. Democrats have also highlighted Ernst saying, "We're all going to die," when pressed about cuts to Medicaid.

What People Are Saying

Brendan Koch, campaign manager for the Turek campaign told Newsweek: "Just weeks after launching his campaign, Josh is already in striking distance of defeating Joni Ernst. The more Iowa voters get to know Josh and hear his story, the more they know he will always fight for them — unlike Ernst, who went to DC and forgot why she was sent there."

Public Policy Polling wrote in the memo: "We also find a similar trend among independent voters after they hear more information about each of the potential candidates: a majority of independents (51%) say they would vote for Wahls and 33% say they would vote for Ernst. Wahls also pulls the most support from Trump voters on the informed ballot against Ernst, with 7% of Trump voters saying they'd vote for Wahls – the best showing for a Democrat among any of the potential matchups."

National Republican Senatorial Committee Regional Press Secretary Nick Puglia wrote in a June statement responding to Wahls' candidacy: "Iowa Democrats have a messy three-way on their hands — no pun intended. Now Wahls and the other radicals will fight to see who supports males in women's sports and opposes the deportation of violent illegal immigrants the most."

What Happens Next

Ernst has not formally announced a bid for reelection, but said during the Iowa Sate Fair earlier in August that confirmation of her plans "will be coming soon," reported Des Moines-based news station KCCI.

Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the Iowa Senate race as Likely Republican.

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[1] Url: https://www.newsweek.com/iowa-senate-poll-zach-wahls-2119633

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