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Republicans Vulnerable to Losing Their Seats After Voting Yes on Trump Bill [1]

['Martha Mchardy', 'Newsweek Staff', 'Josh Hammer']

Date: 2025-07-03 12:44:13-04:00

Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.

Republicans representing districts with high Medicaid enrollment rates could face losing their seats in the 2026 midterms if they vote for Trump's "Big, Beautiful Bill."

Recent changes to the bill would cut roughly $1.1 trillion in health-care spending and result in 11.8 million people losing Medicaid health insurance over the next decade, according to new estimates from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

The bill also mandates that able-bodied adults ages 19 to 64—including some parents of older children—complete and report at least 80 hours per month of work, job training, volunteering, or education to keep their coverage.

Nearly 80 million children, senior citizens, people with disabilities, parents and adults without dependents rely on Medicaid and the related Children's Health Insurance Program.

Rep. Juan Ciscomani, R-Ariz (L) and Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Calif are two of the Republicans who could lose their seats over Trump's Medicaid bill. Rep. Juan Ciscomani, R-Ariz (L) and Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Calif are two of the Republicans who could lose their seats over Trump's Medicaid bill. AP

Why It Matters

If Republican lawmakers lose their seats in the midterms, it could tip the balance of power in Congress, which is currently controlled by the GOP in both chambers. The party has particularly low margins in the House, where Trump's bill now faces a major test after it narrowly cleared the Senate on Tuesday, thanks to Vice President JD Vance's tiebreaking vote.

What To Know

More than 60 House Republicans represent districts where Medicaid enrollment is higher than the national average, according to a CNN analysis of enrollment data and 2024 election results. Among these 64 GOP lawmakers, five—Representatives Nick Begich, Juan Ciscomani, Ken Calvert, Jeff Hurd, and Rob Bresnahan—won their seats last November by slim margins of five points or less.

So if they back Trump's bill, they could face a serious risk of losing their seats in next year's election. All five lawmakers are up for re-election in 2026.

Rob Bresnahan

Bresnahan won by 1.6 percent in 2024, and 26.2 percent of his district is enrolled in Medicaid. He previously joined four other Republican members of the Congressional Hispanic Conference in signing a letter to House Speaker Mike Johnson warning against cuts to Medicaid. In response to budget reconciliation negotiations, Bresnahan said, "If a bill is put in front of me that guts the benefits my neighbors rely on, I will not vote for it."

He emphasized in a February 13 news release, "These benefits are promises that were made to the people of NEPA, and where I come from, people keep their word." The release noted that more than 200,000 Medicaid recipients live in the 8th Congressional District, more than a quarter of its population.

Bresnahan also said in a February 26 Facebook post, "I will fight to protect working-class families in Northeastern Pennsylvania and stand with President Trump in opposing gutting Medicaid. My position on this has not and will not change."

However, in an April 17 letter to House Republican leaders, Bresnahan and 11 fellow Republicans said they favor reforming Medicaid so "it is a strong and long-lasting program for years to come." They added, "However, we cannot and will not support a final reconciliation bill that includes any reduction in Medicaid coverage for vulnerable populations."

On May 22, Bresnahan and all of Pennsylvania's Republican House members voted for President Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Bresnahan said, "Medicaid will be protected while ensuring taxpayer dollars are spent prudently. During this process, I fought to protect social safety net programs from the waste, fraud, and abuse that have threatened their long-term solvency. By ensuring states are not using Medicaid dollars on illegal aliens, conducting more frequent eligibility checks, and requiring work for able-bodied recipients, we are securing Medicaid for those who truly need it."

Nick Begich

Begich won by 2 percent in 2024, and 33.5 percent of his district is enrolled in Medicaid. He has been a vocal supporter of the bill. Shortly after the vote, Begich said in his Washington, D.C. office, "This is a great bill for Alaska. It preserves the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, so it keeps taxes low for working Americans, working Alaskans. It also drives some accountability in some of the government programs that are safety-net programs."

In a post on X, he added, "The American people are counting on Congress to pass the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and deliver on the America First promises that will make our nation prosperous, strong, and safe again."

Juan Ciscomani

Ciscomani won by 2.5 percent in 2024, with 22.9 percent of the district enrolled in Medicaid. In May, he voted to approve President Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill," which included cuts to Medicaid services. Ciscomani also joined the letter opposing reductions in Medicaid coverage for vulnerable populations.

Ken Calvert

Calvert won by 3.4 percent in 2024, with 27.4 percent Medicaid enrollment in his district. He defended the bill, telling News Channel 3, "Medicaid is fine. We're not doing anything to Medicaid other than people that are able-bodied, men and women under the age of 65 that are in good health with no children, have 20 hour a week work requirement or 20 hours of volunteer work. That's not too much to ask to get Medicaid insurance on your behalf."

He also said in a post on X, "I don't believe it's fair to ask a taxpayer who works 40 hours a week to support their family to send their tax dollars to provide Medicaid benefits for healthy working-age adults without children who refuse to work. Like most Americans, I support reasonable work requirements."

Jeff Hurd

Hurd won by 5 percent in 2024, and 26.3 percent of his district is enrolled in Medicaid. He joined the letter opposing Medicaid coverage reductions and voted for the bill in the House. His 3rd Congressional District has the highest rate of Medicaid recipients in Colorado.

A spokesperson confirmed that Representative Hurd plans to vote "yes" on the bill, according to The Colorado Sun.

What Happens Next

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed a key procedural vote in the early hours of Thursday. It remains to be seen whether Johnson can rally the necessary votes to approve the package and move it to Trump's desk, where it would be signed into law.

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[1] Url: https://www.newsweek.com/medicaid-republicans-big-beautiful-bill-2094195

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