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Distributional Effects of Selected Provisions of the House and Senate Reconciliation Bills [1]

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Date: 2025-07

This report analyzes the distributional effects of selected tax and spending provisions of two versions of the budget reconciliation bill currently under consideration by Congress:

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) passed by the House of Representatives on May 22; and

The version of the bill posted on the Senate Budget Committee website on June 27, with adjustments based on reporting about changes to the bill since then (described below).

This analysis updates a previous report from The Budget Lab focusing on the distributional effects of the tax provisions in each version of the reconciliation bill. In addition to the tax changes included in that report, this analysis includes the changes in each version of the bill to Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, commonly known as food stamps).

(This analysis does not consider the combined effects of these tax and spending changes with recent changes to tariffs, as in a previous Budget Lab report; such an analysis from The Budget Lab is forthcoming.)

The results of this exercise are shown in the tables and figures below, which display average annual changes in after-tax-and-transfer income over the 2026-2034 period (in 2025 dollars). The overall effect of these policy changes would be regressive, shifting after-tax-and-transfer resources away from tax units (members of a household filing a tax return together) at the bottom of the distribution towards those at the top.

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[1] Url: https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/distributional-effects-selected-provisions-house-and-senate-reconciliation-bills

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