(C) Common Dreams
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Can Iran Strike Back Effectively? [1]
['Reuel Marc Gerecht', 'Ray Takeyh', 'Reuel Marc Gerecht Ray Takeyh']
Date: 2025-07
Journal Editorial Report: Lawmakers divided on U.S. role in the conflict.
It was long evident that Iran’s atomic-weapons program wouldn’t be disabled through diplomatic negotiations and porous compacts such as President Barack Obama ’s nuclear deal. George W. Bush , Joe Biden and Donald Trump in his first term also chose to punt, hoping that a mix of sanctions would obviate the need for any U.S. military action. Mr. Biden made the bad bet that leaving sanctions unenforced would lead Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei content with staying a nuclear threshold state. With Mr. Trump’s profound unease about entanglements in the Middle East, his second term looked unlikely to break from this pattern.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will seek revenge. The attacks in Qatar and Iraq are a reminder to the Americans that the regime still has resolve. It can still strike back, hoping to rehabilitate its battered red-lines. Mr. Khamenei seeks again to blend caution with aggression. Striking back strong enough to impress his sullen constituents and impetuous Americans, but not hard enough to provoke a massive U.S. retaliation. It is a tricky balance and a discombobulated Khamenei, who has become more aggressive with age, may not get it right.
History offers some guideposts. In 1988, as war with Iraq dragged on, Tehran tried to pressure the world by targeting oil tankers. The Persian Gulf was then, as it is today, the principal artery for transmitting oil to the world. Ronald Reagan launched an operation that destroyed much of Iran’s navy. A defining tragedy also interceded: The USS Vincennes accidentally shot down an Iranian passenger plane, killing 290 people. In Tehran’s corridors of power, paranoia played to America’s advantage. The Iranian ruling elite thought America had entered the war. Suddenly, Iran stopped molesting maritime commercial traffic. But theocracy never sued for peace.
In August 2002, Iran was revealed to have an elaborate and clandestine nuclear infrastructure. The speed of Saddam Hussein ’s collapse in 2003 stunned Tehran. The mullahs quickly came to terms with European nuclear negotiators, suspending key aspects of their atomic program. Hassan Rouhani , who would become Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator and later president, described Mr. Bush as a war-crazed “drunken Abyssinian” with whom the clerical regime didn’t want to duel. Still, Iran got busy recruiting and arming proxies for the oncoming battle with America.
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[1] Url:
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/can-iran-strike-back-effectively-foreign-policy-nuclear-development-history-d9621861?mod=Searchresults_pos8&page=2
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