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Democrat Support is Finally Bouncing Back [1]

['Martha Mchardy', 'Newsweek Staff', 'William J. Barber', 'Ii', 'Leah Greenberg']

Date: 2025-06-09 06:00:02-04:00

Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.

Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content.

After months of lagging poll numbers and internal party anxieties, Democrats are seeing signs of a rebound.

The Democrats have faced less than impressive polling since President Donald Trump won against Kamala Harris in the 2024 election. But new polling suggests the party's popularity might be on an upward trajectory again.

YouGov's generic congressional ballot tracker, which tests which party voters would choose in a congressional election, shows that the Democrats are 2 points ahead of the Republicans, with 44 percent to the GOP's 42 percent.

That is the biggest lead the Democrats have held over the Republicans in the poll since August.

Between October 2024 and April 2025, the two parties were practically tied in the poll. But since April, support for the Democrats has started to trend upward, with their lead over the Republicans reaching 2 points this week.

The upward trajectory for the Democrats coincides with Trump introducing his "Liberation Day" tariffs in April. The policy move rattled markets, prompting a sharp sell-off before an eventual recovery.

It also saw Trump's approval ratings dip after a relatively strong start to his presidency.

Democrats have struggled in polls since Trump's 2024 win, but new data suggests their popularity is rebounding. Democrats have struggled in polls since Trump's 2024 win, but new data suggests their popularity is rebounding. Photo-illustration by Newsweek/Getty/Canva

Since then, Trump's ratings have rebounded. But YouGov's tracker, as well as recent election results, suggest the Democrats may now be gaining some momentum in the face of anxiety about the impact of Trump's tariffs.

Last week, Democrat Keishan Scott defeated his Republican rival Bill Oden in a landslide win for a seat in the South Carolina House of Representatives.

In April, the Democrats defeated the GOP in a special election for an Iowa State House seat in what the Democratic Party hailed as a "clear rebuke of Trump."

Also in April, voters in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race delivered a major blow to Trump and Elon Musk, who had poured millions into backing the Republican candidate.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., departs following a news conference regarding provisions in the House-passed Republican One Big, Beautiful Bill Act, at the Capitol, Thursday, June 5, 2025, in Washington. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., departs following a news conference regarding provisions in the House-passed Republican One Big, Beautiful Bill Act, at the Capitol, Thursday, June 5, 2025, in Washington. Rod Lamkey, Jr./AP

Democratic strategists say the party is beginning to gain momentum by aggressively countering Donald Trump's policies and offering a message of stability amid chaos.

Former Obama adviser Peter Loge pointed to what he sees as the deep unpopularity of Trump's actual policies—even among some who support his rhetoric. "Trump's policies are widely unpopular, and getting less popular," he told Newsweek. "People are afraid of a recession, their neighbors are being deported, they're losing jobs, their families and communities are losing services on which they rely.

"Voters tend to like Trump acting on the U.S.–Mexico border, and many share a general rage against elites, but the nuts and bolts of what that means is not popular," he added.

Loge also warned that voters may be losing patience with the spectacle of Trump-era politics. "Voters may also be tiring of what can look more like reality TV than governing. The latest spat between Trump and Musk is the stuff of tabloids, not the serious work of the world's largest economy and military."

Strategist Alejandro Verdin echoed this, telling Newsweek: "Democrats are finally catching their footing with a 'flood-the-zone' strategy against Trump. Amid a steady trove of disgusting mass deportations, tariffs creating economic turmoil, and repeated attempts to gut our democracy, Democrats are offering a path out of the chaos."

"Americans are waking up to the destructiveness of Trump—and Democrats have a real chance here to keep growing their margin," Verdin added.

Meanwhile, strategist Max Burns told Newsweek the party's gains can be credited to both Trump's declining popularity and Democrats reconnecting with disillusioned voters.

"Two things are driving this polling gain, from my POV," he said. "First, Democrats are finally listening to their voters and taking a more aggressive posture against Trump and the GOP, so some of that gain is disillusioned Democrats coming back into the fold."

"Second, Trump and the GOP have shed popularity at a staggering rate, so Democrats have become more attractive to voters as Republicans have spiraled downward," he added.

But Burns also warned of overconfidence. "The risk here is that Democratic leaders see their rising poll numbers and think the hard work is over. Democratic voters are still morose over 2024 and the lack of change they've seen in the party so far. They expect the party to stand up and protect regular Americans from the deep cuts of this extreme GOP budget. If Democrats don't walk the walk, voters will go right back to ignoring them."

And polls also show that success in local elections for the Democrats is not necessarily translating into an increase in popularity.

Across more than a dozen surveys conducted between late January and mid-May 2025, the party's unfavorable ratings consistently outpace its favorable ones—by double digits in nearly every case.

The RealClearPolitics average from March 6 to May 15 puts the Democratic Party's favorable rating at 34.7 percent, with unfavorable opinions at 58.3 percent, resulting in a net negative spread of -23.6 points.

Marquette University Law School's latest poll, conducted from May 5 to 15, found only 32 percent of Americans viewed the Democratic Party favorably, while 63 percent had an unfavorable view—a 31-point deficit. That marked a slight downturn from Marquette's earlier survey in March, which showed a 35–62 favorability split, indicating a steady decline in public perception.

Economist/YouGov polling paints a similar picture, though with less dramatic numbers. Its April 25–28 poll found Democrats underwater by 22 points, with 37 percent favorable and 59 percent unfavorable. In late March and again in mid-March, the same pollster reported spreads of -29 and -20, respectively. While these results suggest some fluctuation, they show no meaningful improvement.

Other surveys confirm the pattern. Pew Research in April reported a 38–60 split. CNN's March data showed 30 percent of Americans viewed Democrats favorably, while 58 percent did not. NBC News reported just 27 percent favorability in early March, among the lowest of any poll in the sample.

Only one poll—Yahoo News, conducted from April 25 to 28—showed a somewhat narrower gap, with 43 percent viewing the party favorably and 53 percent unfavorably. But even that best-case scenario still placed Democrats 10 points underwater.

YouGov's tracker also shows a downward trajectory in the Democratic Party's popularity, dropping from 40 percent favorability in December to 38 percent in May.

Meanwhile, the most recent Fabrizio Ward poll, conducted between May 15-19 among 800 registered voters, shows that voters trust President Donald Trump over Democrats in Congress on the economy, with 45 percent choosing Trump compared to 39 percent who chose the Democrats.

And a recent CNN/SSRS poll from May showed that Trump has nearly wiped out the Democratic Party's decades-long advantage with middle-class voters. Once seen as the dominant party for middle-class interests—with a 23-point lead over Republicans in 1989—Democrats now lead by just 2 points, per the survey.

Republicans are also gaining traction on economic issues, with a 7-point lead when voters are asked which party aligns more with their economic views. A separate Reuters/Ipsos poll showed the GOP's advantage on having the better economic plan rising to 12 points, up from 9 last year, reflecting growing approval of Trump's economic approach in his second term.

For Verdin, this is a wake-up call for the Democrats not to be complacent. "The party needs to put their pedal on the gas, be nimble and creative with messaging, and start reaching voters early, all the way until the midterms. It's a marathon that we're going to have to sprint the whole way," he said.

It comes after polling has shown that the Democrats are more unpopular than ever after their loss to Trump in 2024.

According to an NBC News poll from March 7-11, 55 percent of respondents said they had a negative view of the Democratic Party, while 27 percent said they had a positive perception. That is the lowest level recorded since NBC News began asking the question in 1990. Recent polls have also shown support for the party declining among middle class, young and Black voters, who have traditionally made up a significant part of the Democrats' base.

There was also evidence of dissatisfaction with the party from its base, with 20 percent of Democratic voters viewing it negatively, twice as high as the figure for Republicans who had a negative view of their party.

The survey suggested that this may be because Democratic voters want their party to take a tougher position in Congress. Among Democratic voters, 65 percent said they wanted their congressional representatives to "stick to their positions even if that means not being able to get things done in Washington," while 32 percent said they should "make compromises with Trump to gain consensus on legislation."

The poll largely reflects the debates occurring in the Democratic party right now in light of their 2024 defeat.

Some feel that in order to get back on track and win back the House in the 2026 midterms, the party should take a more bipartisan approach to politics, and work with Trump to pass legislation, while others feel that doing so will alienate Democratic voters who see Trump as a toxic figure.

Polls have shown voters are divided on this question. In Quantus' April survey, 49 percent said they Democratic party should respond to Trump by resisting or opposing him, while 41 percent said they believe the party should work with Trump.

A HarrisX poll from May 14-15 found that 47 percent of all voters support calls for the Democrats to adopt a more aggressive stance toward the Trump administration, while 53 percent said they support moves by moderate Democrats to compromise with the Trump administration.

"The Democratic Party does not have a unified message or plan to respond. There is no Democratic equivalent to the clear message of Trump and the far right in the U.S.," Loge warned.

"That voters are less unhappy with Democrats than they are Republicans doesn't mean that voters like Democrats, only that they dislike them marginally less than they dislike Republicans.

"Voters don't much like any political party or government official. Voters are tired of politics that looks like reality TV. Voters mostly just want things to work. They want to know they can get a job, and that job can pay the bills. Politicians are spending a lot of time telling voters nothing works, and voters believe them."

[END]
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[1] Url: https://www.newsweek.com/democrat-popularity-polls-2026-midterms-2081484

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