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US Corporate Climate Advocacy Going Into 2025 [1]
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Date: 2025-01
As in 2016, the recent US election comes with significant ramifications for US policy. President-elect Trump has pledged to undo virtually all federal climate regulations and to drastically increase domestic oil and gas exploration, production, and export.
Based on a decade of tracking and analyzing corporate climate lobbying in the US and beyond, this briefing offers three key findings on US corporate advocacy that are likely to inform climate policy development and delay under the new administration.
1. Fossil Fuels Move from Defense to Attack
Between 2016 and 2020, the Trump administration pursued a robust agenda of rolling back climate regulations. During this time, the most entrenched fossil fuel interests shifted from a defensive to offensive strategy, openly calling for regulatory repeal. Already, in 2024, there is evidence of the most negative fossil fuel interests preparing to repeat these strategies.
Before President Trump assumed office in 2017, industry had filed a number of lawsuits against the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for its climate-related regulations. The US Chamber of Commerce, for example, led a suit against the Clean Power Plan introduced under the Obama administration. At least seven major US associations—the US Chamber of Commerce, National Association of Manufacturers (NAM), National Mining Association, American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC), Auto Alliance, American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM), and American Petroleum Institute (API)—then supported the administration’s move to replace the Obama-era Clean Power Plan with a weaker alternative. Industry advocated through a range of channels, from formal written comments during the required feedback periods to press releases and policy papers laying out their positions, meetings with policymakers, advertising, and other means.
As of 2024, there are currently a number of legal filings by industry associations against US climate-related regulations, including but not limited to automotive regulations (by the API), the power plant regulations (by the Edison Electric Institute), and the SEC’s climate disclosure rule (by the Business Roundtable). Just as in 2017, many of the most entrenched fossil fuel interest groups are likely to shift their attention from lawsuits to rollbacks as the administration begins the process of repeal, which requires a period of public consultation for each regulation. They will likely issue various statements and comments urging and supporting these moves.
On November 12th, the American Petroleum Institute released its “5 Point Policy Roadmap to Secure American Energy Leadership and Help Reduce Inflation” specifying a series of actions that Trump’s administration can take to roll back climate policy and facilitate the expansion of fossil fuels.
However, obstructive corporate entities do not represent the entire US economy. InfluenceMap has tracked significant corporate support for key policies at risk of rollback, including the clean tax credits in the Inflation Reduction Act.
Leading up to the passage of the IRA, two-thirds of all evidence of corporate advocacy on the climate and energy components of the bill was supportive, endorsing the incentives for the energy transition. Support came not only from clear renewable interests but transitioning sectors in the “partially aligned” category flagged in the section above: these are companies with a growing stake in the climate policy agenda. (Even some oil and gas companies supported the IRA, due to its subsidies for carbon capture and storage (CCS). InfluenceMap has previously analyzed corporate CCS advocacy here).
On automotive policy, a wide group of companies—Cummins, Daimler, PACCAR, General Motors, Stellantis, Volvo Group, Hino Motors (a Toyota subsidiary), and Navistar—have committed to comply with the California standards irrespective of whether they are rolled back. The auto and trucking industry’s agreements with California regulators appear to indicate a disconnect between industry interests and the incoming administration’s stated desire to roll back road transport regulations.
While the most negative interests, including powerful fossil fuel industry associations, will support regulatory repeal and IRA rollback (and have already begun to do so), the administration may not see such clear-cut support from the rest of the corporate economy.
2. Heavy advocacy on permitting and infrastructure, particularly gas
Based on analysis contained in InfluenceMap’s US platform, when looking across federal and state policies, the areas of climate policy that have attracted the most corporate advocacy are permitting reform and automotive regulations. Permitting reform in particular has seen engagement from a wide array of entities at the federal level, from utilities and clean energy industry associations calling for improved transmission infrastructure to fossil fuel companies and industry associations calling for quicker approvals of liquefied natural gas export projects.
A focus on the energy mix and gas-related infrastructure extends into the states. In a stated effort to facilitate a successful energy transition and mitigate costs, many US states have initiated proceedings open to public comment on the future of fossil gas, including Massachusetts (2020), New York (2020), Minnesota (2021), Nevada (2021), Oregon (2021), Washington (2021), Rhode Island (2022), New Jersey (2023), and Illinois (2024), as well as the District of Columbia (2020). These investigative proceedings have laid the groundwork for legislative action to meet state-level greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.
Public comments have revealed varying degrees of support for the phaseout of fossil gas in the energy mix. Across every state where these proceedings have been introduced, utilities have responded with concerns regarding grid reliability, transmission capacity, and costs to consumers. WEC Energy Group, for example, has submitted several comments on the Illinois Future of Gas docket, including a May 2024 submission promoting the “crucial role” of fossil gas in the state’s pursuit of net zero emissions. In its comments, the company suggested that “forced electrification” would inhibit the competitiveness of the state’s economy, deterring the growth of the manufacturing sector in industries with high energy demand, particularly those related to technology development. Positive advocacy by utilities has focused on improving energy efficiency, rather than transitioning away from fossil fuels. In April 2024 comments, Ameren Corporation called for measures to enhance efficiency throughout Illinois’ energy distribution systems that would allow for “dual-fuel utilities to meet their natural gas energy efficiency goals while recognizing the role electric focused energy efficiency programs can play in decarbonization.”
The consultations allow some degree of optimism for state-level energy transitions. In December 2023, Massachusetts became the first state to issue an order through its Department of Public Utilities “dissuading” gas customer expansion, and calling for decarbonization of heating through mechanisms such as targeted electrification, networked geothermal, and renewable hydrogen. The decision came despite advocacy by utilities such as National Grid, which stated in January 2023 comments that “electricity alone will not be enough to decarbonize heating systems in a region that experiences as much cold weather as New England,” and advocated for renewable natural gas to be included in future regulations on clean heat. Similarly, Berkshire Gas Company, a subsidiary of Avangrid, submitted May 2023 comments on the state’s proposed Clean Heat Standard advocating that regulations continue to provide for the use of gas-powered components as well as electrification of heating.
In 2025 and the years following, issues of permitting, infrastructure, and the future of gas are likely to remain a focus of corporate advocacy. Both clean and fossil fuel entities will advocate to advance their aims at the federal and state level.
3. Strategic use of narratives to maintain public support and secure wins
During the first Trump administration, InfluenceMap analysis revealed the vast amount of time and resources that fossil fuel companies invest in reaching the public to protect their “social license” or public reputation. Going into 2025, corporate entities opposed to climate action will no longer need to convince federal policymakers of their aims, as they have a supportive administration that has pledged to protect their interests. Instead, they may turn attention to influencing the public.
Narrative messaging is a critical part of corporate influence regardless of the political environment. It is not uncommon to see overlaps in corporate messaging and policymaker messaging (a trend observed in the EU and Australia, for example. In the US, recent analysis finds a clear overlap between industry messaging and policymaker messaging, particularly on the issue of automotive regulations. In 2024 alone, there were over 100 instances of corporate interests centering the “consumer choice” narrative in their public advocacy on autos. Entities levelling this message ranged from the nonprofit Consumer Energy Alliance; automotive companies like Hyundai and Toyota; fossil fuel companies like Williams Companies, ExxonMobil, and Kinder Morgan; to industry associations like the American Gas Association and AFPM. Non-exhaustive examples are below:
The API’s "5 Point Policy Roadmap" urges the incoming Trump administration to repeal transport regulations, specifically citing the need to “protect consumer choice.” It has issued the same message before: in September 2024, it applauded a House resolution to prevent EPA’s light- and medium-duty tailpipe emissions rule, citing the idea of a “vehicle mandate that takes choices away from American consumers.”
The American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) began an ad campaign in August 2024 criticizing Kamala Harris’ support for EV “mandates” and calling on Congress to overturn the EPA’s regulation in order to “protect consumer choice.” It reiterated the argument of consumer choice in its November 2024 press acknowledgement of the US election results.
In early November 2024, Toyota Motor advocated for the incoming administration to overturn federal GHG emissions standards and replace them with rules that “promote consumer choice.”
The Alliance for Automotive Innovation also appeared critical of California’s emissions standards in a November 2024 letter to Mr. Trump, stressing a need for regulations that “preserve consumer choice.”
As reported by Politico in October, the issue of personal freedom and choice on autos was a key point of debate before the election in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania. One campaign ad running in the weeks leading up to the election said: “Attention auto workers: Kamala Harris wants to end all gas powered cars. Crazy, but true!” Another ad in Pennsylvania said, “Vice President Kamala Harris wanted to end sales of all new gas-powered vehicles by 2035, taking away our choices.” Messaging by the more negative auto industry interests and anti-EV candidates was extremely aligned.
Recognizing industry narratives is a critical component of any action to confront industry influence over climate policy, particularly given that many fossil fuel interests are likely to publicly position themselves as proponents of climate action leading up to and throughout the new administration. However, as proven by the above results, top-line PR from companies likely seeking to paint a positive image may not necessarily come with science-aligned climate policy advocacy. InfluenceMap analysis regularly finds a gap between the positive top-line messaging of corporate interests and their actual policy engagement.
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[1] Url:
https://influencemap.org/briefing/US-Corporate-Climate-Advocacy-Going-Into-2025-30736
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