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Will RFK Jr Make America Sick Again? [1]
['Arthur L. Kellermann']
Date: 2024-12-26
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. went to Capitol Hill last week to make the case for his confirmation as secretary of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. According to the Wall Street Journal, he sought to “play down the topic of vaccines, adhere tightly to President-elect Donald Trump’s messaging on abortion, and talk up healthy food and preventing chronic disease.”
WASHINGTON, DC - MAY 24: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks at the Libertarian National Convention on May ... [+] 24, 2024 in Washington, D.C. Getty Images
If Kennedy and his allies focus on preventing chronic disease, they could improve the health of tens of millions of Americans and lower healthcare spending – a major challenge for our government and American families. But if they defund effective public health programs, curtail infectious disease research and seek to undermine Americans’ confidence in vaccines, they’ll open the door to outbreaks of contagious disease and substantially higher healthcare costs.
For Much Of Its History, America Was Not A Healthy Place
U.S. life expectancy in 1900 was 47.3 years. By the end of the century it reached 76.7 years, according to the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics. Twenty-five years of the gain were due to public health. Reducing child mortality was a priority. In 1900, 30% of deaths in the United States occurred in children under 5 years of age. In 1999, they accounted for only 1.4%. Vaccines played a vital role in this progress.
"Iron Lung" victims at Baltimore's Children's Hospital get a television set, thanks to the ... [+] generosity of the Baltimore Rotary Club. Mirrors on the lungs permit the patients to see daily broadcasts. Bettmann Archive
The Protective Power of Vaccination
To quantify the impact of vaccines, researchers at the University of Pittsburgh and Johns Hopkins University digitized all weekly surveillance reports of nationally notifiable diseases for U.S. cities and states published between 1888 and 2011. The resulting data set contained nearly 88 million cases of illness. No disease was continuously reported throughout the 123-year interval, reflecting shifting public health priorities.
Their findings, published in The New England Journal of Medicine in 2013, were striking. Whenever a new vaccine was introduced, the disease it targeted declined. Initially, cases of diphtheria (which can suffocate young victims), pertussis (whooping cough), and tetanus (often lethal) dropped gradually due to limited vaccine uptake. The pace accelerated when pertussis vaccine was combined with diphtheria toxoid and tetanus toxoid to create the DPT (diphtheria–tetanus–pertussis) vaccine in 1948.
U.S. rates of diphtheria, pertussis, smallpox and hepatitis A before and after introduction of ... [+] vaccines. The year the first vaccine for each disease was licensed is indicated by a red line. The world's first vaccine, against smallpox, was introduced in the U.S. in 1800, long before disease rates were tracked and large-scale vaccination campaigns were possible. MIDAS Coordination Center, University of Pittsburgh
Before the Salk polio vaccine was developed in 1955, polio was a common and terrifying cause of lifelong paralysis or death. Once the vaccine was available, many parents lined their children up to receive it. Cases swiftly declined over the next several years. Further reductions followed licensure of the Sabin oral polio vaccine in 1961. The disease was eradicated from the U.S. in 1979.
Measles, a common and highly contagious childhood disease that can lead to pneumonia and fatal brain swelling, declined rapidly after the first measles vaccine was introduced in 1963. Although vaccines against mumps (which can cause meningitis and deafness) and rubella (which can cause birth defects in pregnant women) were licensed in 1967 and 1969, respectively, sporadic outbreaks continued until the launch of two national vaccination programs and the MMR (measles–mumps–rubella) combined vaccine in 1978.
Rates of polio, measles, mumps and rubella in the U.S. before and after the introduction of ... [+] vaccines for each disease. The year each vaccine was licensed is indicated by a red line. MIDAS Coordination Center, University of Pittsburgh
By comparing the incidence rates of each disease before and after its vaccine was introduced, the authors determined that between 1924 and 2011, more than 100 million cases of contagious disease were prevented by vaccinations. This included 40 million cases of diphtheria and 35 million cases of measles.
Could This Progress Be Lost?
Smallpox was eradicated worldwide in 1980, but stocks of the virus still exist in U.S. and Russian biocontainment facilities. The other diseases are being held at bay by high rates of vaccination. Measles, which spreads rapidly, is an excellent example. When more than 95% of people are vaccinated, the entire community benefits because the virus can’t easily get established and spread. This is what is meant by “herd immunity.”
Unfortunately, once measles and many other dangerous diseases were brought under control through vaccination, parental fear of losing a child to a fatal illness was replaced by worry about possible side effects. Much of this anxiety is fostered by false claims and internet-fueled disinformation. As a result, some parents needlessly delay vaccinations. Those who mistakenly believe that vaccines are more dangerous than the diseases they prevent are refusing to vaccinate their children.
According to the CDC, vaccination coverage among U.S. kindergartners has declined from 95.2% during the 2019–2020 school year to 92.7% in the 2023–2024 school year. This means nearly 300,000 kindergartners are at risk of contracting a vaccine-preventable disease. Of greater concern is the fact that unvaccinated families tend to cluster in communities defined by faith, culture or political ideology. When a highly contagious disease gets into such a community, an outbreak can occur. We’ve already seen localized outbreaks of measles, rubella, mumps, and pertussis.
NEW YORK, NY: A woman pushes a stroller near the Yeshiva Kehilath Yakov School in the South ... [+] Williamsburg neighborhood on April 9, 2019. After an outbreak of over 285 measles cases in Brooklyn and Queens, most of which were concentrated in Orthodox Jewish communities, New York City ordered all yeshivas in a heavily Orthodox Jewish section of Brooklyn to exclude students who aren't vaccinated against measles (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images) Getty Images
Kennedy’s Worrisome Past
As much as Mr. Kennedy seeks to downplay his anti-vaccine advocacy, it’s hard to ignore 20 years of work. Along with Andrew Wakefield—who galvanized the modern anti-vax movement with a study that falsely alleged a link between the MMR vaccine and autism, Kennedy is one of the highest-profile figures in the global anti-vaccine movement. Children’s Health Defense (CHD), an advocacy organization he founded, chaired and for a time served as chief litigation counsel, is “...a prolific content creator and a leading source of false and misleading claims about vaccines” according to NPR. The same week that Mr. Kennedy visited Senate offices, USA Today published a fact check of his record entitled: “RFK Jr. and vaccines: A history of false and misleading claims.” More than 75 Nobel laureates recently signed a letter to the U.S. Senate questioning his ability to lead HHS. “Placing Mr. Kennedy in charge of DHHS,” they wrote, “would put the public’s health in jeopardy and undermine America’s global leadership in the health sciences.”
Although Mr. Kennedy recently stated that “we're not going to take vaccines away from anybody,” he and former House member Dr. Dave Weldon, Trump’s nominee to lead the CDC, have endorsed debunked theories blaming vaccines for autism and some chronic diseases. If they persist in pushing these views, tamper with the vaccination schedules developed with input from the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), or defund federal and state vaccination campaigns, acceptance of vaccines could fall low enough to allow once-vanquished diseases to make a comeback.
The Senate’s Choice
President-elect Trump has made it clear that he expects Senate Republicans to line up behind Kennedy and other controversial cabinet nominees. Although many have already announced their support, others are weighing the risk of angering the president against the considerable risk that Mr. Kennedy could make America sick again.
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[1] Url:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/arthurkellermann/2024/12/26/will-rfk-jr-make-america-sick-again/
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