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Barnier downfall threatens to set a pattern for what lies ahead [1]

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Date: 2024-12

Barnier downfall threatens to set a pattern for what lies ahead

Reuters Prime Minister Michel Barnier was ousted in a no-confidence vote in the National Assembly on Wednesday

France’s political crisis is worse than normal political crises. Normally when a democratic country passes through turbulence, there is some prospect of the turbulence coming to an end. Not today in Paris. If anything, the downfall of Michel Barnier – toppled in parliament by a no-confidence motion – threatens to set a pattern for what lies ahead. For if Barnier – a moderate of the centre-right with a reputation for courtesy and compromise – was unable to pass a budget, then who else can?

The original cause of the crisis has not gone away. It is the division since July of the National Assembly into three roughly equal blocs, none of which is prepared to deal with another. As a result the two blocs that make up the opposition will always be able to unseat the one bloc that forms a government. French government collapses in no-confidence vote Add to that a mood of near-insurrection on some opposition benches – plus an ideological push for ever more generous spending pledges, despite stark warnings about the national debt – and the idea of a return to serene central politics seems very distant. For many it is a crise de régime which is being played out, with the very future of the Fifth Republic institutions in jeopardy. The Fifth Republic was created to concentrate power in the hands of Charles de Gaulle at a time of national crisis. And ever since De Gaulle, presidents have tried – and generally failed – to emulate his stature. Macron certainly liked to compare himself with le grand Charles. But when De Gaulle had a similar government crisis in 1962, he went to the people and received a huge popular mandate in the next election. Macron has done the reverse. He has had his vote – the botched election in July – and lost it. Power has now shifted out of his hands into those of the putative prime minister, answerable to parliament.

Getty Images Emmanuel Macron is to address the nation on Thursday evening

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[1] Url: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czjd79yrlplo

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