(C) Common Dreams
This story was originally published by Common Dreams and is unaltered.
. . . . . . . . . .



State elections expected to set a new record at $4.6 billion in funding • OpenSecrets [1]

["Ciara O'Neill", 'Brendan Glavin']

Date: 2024-11-05 22:56:45+00:00

Voting booths are seen near a display of symbols of the United States at the Orange County Supervisor of Elections office on Oct. 17, 2024 in Orlando, Fla. (Photo by Paul Hennessy/Anadolu via Getty Images)

State candidates, party committees and ballot measure committees are projected to raise $4.6 billion for 2023 and 2024 elections, a new OpenSecrets analysis of state-level campaign finance disclosures projects.

“With all the focus on the presidential race, we can’t forget that billions of dollars are also being spent on state-level races in 2024,” noted Brendan Glavin, OpenSecrets’ Deputy Research Director.

Overall State Election Projections

State-level campaign finance disclosures will continue to be filed and processed for months after Election Day. But if historical trends hold, state fundraising during the 2023-2024 cycle would exceed the $4.3 billion raised in the 2019-2020 state elections, the previous record amount for a comparable election cycle. If adjusted for inflation, state fundraising during the 2020 cycle would still be the record with $5.2 billion in today’s dollars.

“Just as we have seen at the federal level, the costs of state elections continue on an upward trajectory, rising 30% since 2016,” said Sarah Bryner, OpenSecrets’ Director of Research and Strategy.

Because the number and type of races is very different at the state level every two years, OpenSecrets’ comparison with historical data follows the federal presidential election cycle to provide a comparable set of elections across the country. Eleven gubernatorial races are on the ballot in 2024, with three already decided in 2023. Additionally, 93 of the 99 state legislative chambers held elections in 2023 or this year.

OpenSecrets tracks fundraising across all 50 states for candidates, party committees and ballot measure committees, though only some states provide spending data in a usable format. Based on the available spending data and matching it with fundraising totals, OpenSecrets projects that total spending on state elections will reach $4.3 billion.

Fueled by $15.9 billion in federal spending, OpenSecrets projects that the combined total for state and federal election spending in the 2023-2024 cycle will exceed $20 billion.

Fundraising by Ballot Measure Campaigns

Fundraising for ballot measures alone is projected to soar above the billion-dollar mark, following a similar trend in recent years. While many of the 159 measures across 41 states will be decided with little or no spending, ballot measure committees are still projected to raise $1.4 billion by the end of 2024.

Reproductive rights are on the ballot in 10 states, accelerating a trend started in 2022 with the Supreme Court decision Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which overturned decades of legal access to abortion.

Of the seven abortion measures on the ballot in 2022 and 2023 elections, voters rejected a ban or upheld legal abortion every time.

As of Nov. 1, abortion measures account for almost a third of all money raised by ballot measure committees this cycle. Committees supporting abortion access have raised $305 million compared to $96 million raised by committees opposing abortion access. Ballot measure committees supporting abortion access outraised those trying to restrict it in every state except New York, where megadonors led by $6.5 million from Richard Uihlein dropped $8 million into a committee opposing Proposal 1, also known as the Equal Rights Amendment.

In Ohio last year, a failed attempt to raise the vote requirement to 60% ahead of November votes over abortion access and marijuana legalization resulted in both issues passing. Committees in the state spent over $160 million on this two-step battle.

Sign up for original OpenSecrets News stories directly to your inbox

In 2024, a distorted echo of this plays out in Florida, where constitutional amendments already require a 60% supermajority.

Amendment 4, which would establish a constitutional right to abortion before fetal viability, attracted $131 million, with abortion access proponents led by liberal dark money groups raising almost $119 million.

Marijuana legalization is also on the ballot in Florida and has attracted more money than any other ballot measure in the country — totaling about $179 million. According to new filings, the committee registered to support Amendment 3 raised $153 million, which is far and away the largest sum ever raised by a single committee on the issue of marijuana legalization. Trulieve, a Florida-based medical marijuana corporation, accounts for $125 million of this total.

Another top targeted measure in the country is Proposition 33 in California, which would permit local governments to enact rent control. Committees in support of the proposition have attracted $39.3 million while opponents, bolstered by realtor and apartment associations, have raised almost $125 million.

Other trending issues across the states include minimum wage, gambling, electoral reform and citizenship voting requirements.

Ballot measures are not immune from the influence of dark money. One of the top liberal dark money groups, Sixteen Thirty Fund, has donated over $43 million to ballot measures this cycle. On the right, The Concord Fund gave over $25 million to oppose Issue 1 in Ohio, a successful 2023 ballot measure that codified reproductive rights in the Ohio constitution.

Candidates & Parties

Candidates and parties are the other significant players with big money in state elections. State-level candidates are expected to raise $2.6 billion for the 2024 cycle, a 22% increase from 2020. Republican candidates will modestly outraise their Democrat counterparts $1.3 billion to $1.1 billion. This is a reversal from 2020 when Democrats were ahead $1.1 billion to $900 million. While state-level party committees have traded on and off topping each other in overall funds raised historically, the difference is generally not significant.

While an increase in candidate and ballot measure dollars has fueled the record fundraising for 2024, party fundraising is the one spot where, after a significant spike in 2020, totals appear to be falling back closer to historical levels.

Methodology

This report examines fundraising and spending by state candidates, parties and ballot measure committees for elections held in 2023 and 2024, and treats elections in these years as elections in a 2024 cycle. The 2024 cycle is compared to previous four-year cycles that coincide with federal presidential election years.

To project fundraising figures for the current cycle, OpenSecrets compared previous cycle contributions documented through Nov. 1 to those cycles’ final totals to determine a projection ratio for each type of fundraiser. Those ratios were then applied to 2024 cycle fundraising data collected as of Nov. 1 to calculate an estimated projection.

Spending projections are more nuanced. OpenSecrets collects expenditures made by state candidates, party committees and ballot measure committees in 37 states. During the record-setting 2020 cycle, the candidates and committees in the 37 states spent roughly 93% of their funds. These projections presume that that ratio holds across the remaining 13 states then applies the ratio 2024 fundraising projection for all states.

Fundraising and spending by sitting officeholders not running for election in the 2022 cycle are excluded from this analysis, since they are not directly relevant to the elections in the current cycle.

[END]
---
[1] Url: https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2024/11/state-elections-expected-to-set-a-new-record-at-4-6-billion-in-funding

Published and (C) by Common Dreams
Content appears here under this condition or license: Creative Commons CC BY-NC-ND 3.0..

via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds:
gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/commondreams/