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Report: Wisconsin's aging population could 'significantly strain' elder care industry [1]
['Mitchell Schmidt', 'Wisconsin State Journal', 'Straight Arrow News']
Date: 2024-11
The number of Wisconsinites who are 75 and older is projected to “explode,” rising by nearly 75% over the next two decades and significantly straining the state’s elder care industry, according to a new report.
Adding to other pending challenges surrounding the state’s aging population like workforce demands and Wisconsin’s housing stock, the report, released Monday by the Wisconsin Counties Association’s nonpartisan research arm Forward Analytics, notes that any growth in Wisconsin’s stock of nursing home and assisted living beds over the last 20 years has only kept up with the state’s increasing aging population.
If the state’s senior population continues to grow as projected, Wisconsin will need to add about 33,000 beds by 2030. Another 26,500 beds will be needed by 2040. As of last year, the state had about 80,000 total nursing home and assisted living facility beds.
The type of services needed by the state’s aging population is also shifting, with the number of licensed nursing home beds declining from more than 43,000 in 2000 to just over 26,000 in 2023. At the same time, the number of beds in assisted living facilities has increased from more than 67,000 in 2000 to 80,000 last year, according to the report.
“Predicting what type facilities will be needed is more difficult to project,” Kevin Dospoy, deputy director of Forward Analytics, said in a statement. “Since 2000, the number of nursing home beds has declined while beds in assisted living facilities have increased. However, with the state adding about 300,000 people to the 75-or-older cohort by 2040, the decline in nursing home beds will likely be reversed at some point.”
In addition to needing more beds in the coming years, Wisconsin also faces ongoing staffing challenges at such facilities. If current ratios remain unchanged, elder care facilities will need to add nearly 10,000 registered nurses, CNAs and home health care aids by 2030.
“We know that the senior population is going to explode over the next 20 years,” according to the report. “We need to start planning now for how we are going to serve those in need.”
The first baby boomers turned 75 in 2021. The report estimates about 170,000 Wisconsinites will turn 75 by the end of the current decade. All told, that means Wisconsin’s population of those 75 and older is projected to increase by 41% in the current decade, compared to just an 8% increase during 2010-2020. The state’s 75-and-older population is projected to grow another 24%, or by about 137,000 people, between 2030 and 2040.
“The sheer magnitude of the number of Wisconsinites who will pass the age of 75 should concern state and local leaders, particularly when every region and sector in the state is experiencing workforce shortages,” the report states. “Even if the public and private sectors were able to license enough beds in nursing homes and assisted living facilities to keep up with the aging population, there are not enough workers, specifically home health and personal care aides to provide needed care.”
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[1] Url:
https://madison.com/news/state-regional/business/health-care/wisconsin-forward-analytics-report-nursing-home-assisted-living-facility-nurse-aging-baby-boomer-elder-care-population/article_d1b8ae34-7cd9-11ef-ba5e-5fb39525a641.html
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