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Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s energy sector have escalated again as winter sets in – Analysis [1]

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Date: 2024-10

As temperatures drop across Ukraine, Russia's attacks on energy infrastructure have intensified

For the second consecutive winter, Russia has increased military attacks on Ukraine’s energy system, significantly undermining the security of the country's power supply. The bombing campaign – which lasted throughout the 2022/23 heating season and resumed in recent months – has targeted a wide range of energy infrastructure, from power plants to oil refineries and district heating facilities. The World Bank recently estimated that Ukraine’s energy sector has sustained USD 12 billion in damages during the war.

In light of Russia’s continued attacks, safeguarding power system resilience and boosting electricity security are key priorities for Ukraine. The International Energy Agency (IEA), which has deepened its relationship with Ukraine since Russia’s invasion, is stepping up to provide support – sharing data and analysis, and working directly with policy makers as they look to both address the country’s immediate energy needs and develop plans for the longer term.

Russia’s initial offensive against Ukraine’s energy system resulted in widespread destruction. In October 2022, Ukraine’s energy minister said that about 30% of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure appeared to have been attacked in a single day, and during the following seven months, Russia used missiles and drones to target energy facilities across the country, leaving no thermal or hydro power plant untouched. As a result, some areas only had access to electricity, heating and the internet for a few hours a day, and hospitals, businesses and households had to turn to expensive diesel generators for backup. More than 50% of Ukraine’s power infrastructure was damaged, according to the World Bank.

Ukraine made significant efforts to improve energy security ahead of this winter. Over the spring and summer, power utilities – aided by significant grants, loans and investment from a wide range of governments, multilateral donors and the private sector – undertook the biggest energy infrastructure repair and maintenance campaign in the country’s history. The Ukrainian government also strengthened its air defence systems and invested in passive defence measures such as engineering fortifications to further protect energy infrastructure.

Other steps were taken in parallel to help millions of people and businesses in Ukraine reliably keep the lights on and stay warm. Ukraine’s disconnection from Russia’s power system and synchronisation with Continental Europe was made permanent in November 2023, and operators of Continental Europe’s transmission system decided to raise the commercial capacity limit for electricity imports. This will allow Ukrenergo, Ukraine’s transmission system operator, to better absorb shocks to the system, such as further attacks or spikes in consumption driven by colder temperatures.

However, this winter is still set to be extremely challenging. Not all of Ukraine’s energy facilities could be fully restored by the start of the 2023/24 heating season – especially given difficulties securing financing to repair coal-based generation and sourcing high-power autotransformers, a critical component of Ukraine’s Soviet-legacy power system. Meanwhile, new strikes are causing fresh damage. A long-lasting cold snap would also pose risks; milder-than-normal temperatures in 2022/23 significantly helped the country's efforts to keep power and heating supplied to its citizens



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[1] Url: https://www.iea.org/commentaries/russias-attacks-on-ukraines-energy-sector-have-escalated-again-as-winter-sets-in

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