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A brazen effort to steal an election in Venezuela [1]

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Date: 2024-07-31

“[The election] is historical in the sense that this was one of the most open and egregious cases of electoral fraud, just outright theft, of an election that we’ve seen in Latin America in a very long time,” said Steve Levitsky, a Latin American Studies professor at Harvard.

Those responses were detached from the situation in Caracas, where protests have broken out against Maduro’s blatant effort to cling to power.

Defending democracy abroad is a central theme of the Biden-Harris administration’s foreign policy, but you wouldn’t know it based on its muted reaction to Sunday’s fraudulent election in Venezuela. So far, all Secretary of State Antony Blinken has been able to muster are “serious concerns,” calling for the regime of socialist strongman Nicolás Maduro to “immediately share information with the opposition and independent observers.” National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said “we’re going to hold our judgment until we see the actual tabulation of the results.”

Despite political intimidation and various barriers to ensuring a free and fair election, Venezuelans turned out in droves, overwhelmingly electing opposition candidate Edmundo González, who with opposition leader Maria Corina Machado declared Monday that their supporters inspected more than 70 percent of the tally sheets and that they show González winning with more than 6 million votes, compared to more than 2 million for Maduro. The Maduro regime is currently threatening Machado and Gonzales, and continues to claim Maduro won 51 percent to 44 percent.

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What the United States and its partners do in the coming days will be critical, both for Venezuelan democracy and for US interests. If they can pressure Maduro to accept the election results it would be a triumph for the brave Venezuelans who took to the polls and now are taking to the streets. The Biden administration should be upping the pressure on Maduro by taking a harder line on sanctions, unequivocally signaling its support of the opposition, and offering Maduro an off-ramp if he’s willing to step down.

Once one of South America’s wealthiest countries, Venezuela’s descent into economic and political instability started with the rule of socialist Hugo Chavez, who was elected in 1998 and became a thorn in the side of successive US presidents while dismantling the country’s democratic institutions. When Chavez died of cancer in 2013, Maduro, his handpicked successor, narrowly won the presidential election. Under his leadership, Venezuela has suffered severe hyperinflation and crime, mass migration, political corruption, obstruction of the press, and the imprisonment of political opponents.

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The main tool the United States has to nudge Venezuela back onto a democratic path are economic sanctions against its oil industry. Sanctions are a two-edged sword, though, because Venezuela has historically been a major supplier of crude oil to the US market. Banning Venezuelan imports deprives the regime of a revenue source — but it may also drive up gas prices at the pump and exacerbate humanitarian issues in Venezuela in the short term.

Ultimately, though, oil politics can’t take a backseat to promoting and protecting democracy. After Maduro’s brazen effort to steal the election, the White House should explicitly threaten to revoke all licenses to import Venezuelan oil and to impose more intense personal sanctions and travel bans on Maduro, his family, and members of his regime if he does not accept the election results.

Meanwhile, the administration could signal support for the election’s integrity by reviving the office of special representative to Venezuela that existed under former president Donald Trump, which could also ease coordination efforts with the opposition.

Finally, to optimize pressure on Maduro to step down, the United States should also be ready to negotiate a transition deal, which could include some sort of amnesty for Maduro. “Every democratic transition in Latin America has involved a negotiation, and it has involved a kind of amnesty,” says Elliott Abrams, the special representative to Venezuela under Trump. It might be grating to think of Maduro escaping any consequences for his actions, but if that’s what it takes to dislodge him it would be worth it.

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It’s in US interests for the Biden administration to help deliver the regime change Venezuelans have voted for. Under Maduro, Venezuela continues to be a regional hub for narcotrafficking and the source of mass migration to the southern border — which could get worse should Maduro remain in office. Under more stable leadership, its oil fields could be a valuable resource for the American economy.

But most of all, a democratic Venezuela would fulfill the Biden administration vision for promoting democratic renewal abroad, which includes a stated support of free and independent media, fighting corruption, bolstering human rights and democratic reformers, and defending free and fair elections.

González’s victory represents a consolidation of the Venezuelan opposition around these very ideals. And its support is growing — even in former Chavez strongholds like the impoverished Caracas neighborhood of Petare, where protests have broken out. The pressure against Maduro has never been greater, nor has the opportunity for the United States to support a democratic transition. If the Biden administration truly wants to defend democracy abroad, it won’t waste this chance.

Editorials represent the views of the Boston Globe Editorial Board. Follow us @GlobeOpinion.

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[1] Url: https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/07/31/opinion/venezuela-election-maduro-biden-democracy/

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