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Opinion polling for the next Israeli legislative election [1]

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Date: 2024-06

In the run up to the next Israeli legislative election, various organisations are conducting opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Israel during the term of the twenty-fifth Knesset. This article lists the results of such polls.

The date range for these opinion polls is from the 2022 Israeli legislative election, held on 1 November, to the present day. In keeping with the election silence tradition, no polls may be published from the end of the Friday before the election until the polling stations close on election day at 22:00.[1]

Polls are listed in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the highest figures. When a poll has no information on a certain party, that party is instead marked by a dash (–).

Seat projections

This section displays voting intention estimates referring to the next Knesset election. The figures listed are Knesset seat counts rather than percentages, unless otherwise stated.

Polling graph

This graph shows the polling trends from the 2022 Israeli legislative election until the next election day using local regressions (LOESS). Scenario polls are not included here. For parties not crossing the electoral threshold (currently 3.25%) in any given poll, the number of seats is calculated as a percentage of the 120 total seats.

Polls

Poll results are listed in the table below. Parties that fall below the electoral threshold of 3.25% are denoted by the percentage of votes that they received (N%), rather than the number of seats they would have received.

Legend

61 seats are required for a majority in the Knesset. If a bloc has a majority, the sum is displayed in bold with its background shaded in the leading party's colour.

2024

2022–23

Scenario polls

Most often, opinion polling about hypothetical scenarios is done in the same survey as the regular polling. This is why these scenario polls are paired for comparison purposes.

Regular poll

Scenario poll

Labor-Meretz scenarios

Labor and Meretz run together under Yair Golan

Labor and Meretz run together

New party scenarios

Naftali Bennett forms a new party

Naftali Bennett and Yossi Cohen form two separate new parties

Yoav Galant forms a new party

New party headed by the anti-judicial reform protest leaders

Yossi Cohen forms a new party

Yoaz Hendel forms a new party

New party headed by the anti-judicial reform protest leaders with a new right wing liberal party

Yoaz Hendel and Naftali Bennett form a new party

Yariv Levin forms a new party

New Anti Judicial Overhaul Right Wing Party

Alternative leadership scenarios

Nir Barkat leads the Likud

Yossi Cohen leads the Likud

Yoav Galant leads the Likud

Other scenarios and scenario combinations

Yoav Galant forms a new party and Yair Golan is the head of a Labor and Meretz union

Naftali Bennett and Yossi Cohen form two separate new parties, and Yair Golan is the head of a Labor and Meretz joint list

Naftali Bennett and Yossi Cohen form a new party and Yair Golan is the head of a Labor and Meretz union

Naftali Bennett forms a new party, Yossi Cohen becomes Likud leader and Yair Golan is the head of a Labor and Meretz union

Naftali Bennett forms a new party, Nir Barkat becomes Likud leader and Yair Golan is the head of a Labor and Meretz union

Naftali Bennett forms a new party, Yoav Galant becomes Likud leader and Yair Golan is the head of a Labor and Meretz union

Naftali Bennett forms a new party and Yair Golan is the head of a Labor and Meretz union

Prime minister

Netanyahu vs. Gantz

Netanyahu vs. Lapid

Netanyahu vs. Bennett

Netanyahu vs. Lieberman

Date Polling firm Publisher Netanyahu Lieberman Neither Undecided 29 May 24 Midgam HaHadashot 12[4] 36 19 41 4

Netanyahu vs. Eisenkot

Date Polling firm Publisher Netanyahu Eisenkot Neither Undecided 30 Jan 24 Midgam HaHadashot 12[53] 24 36 31 9 21 Jan 24 Camil Fuchs Channel 13[55] 32 45 – 23

Gantz vs. Levin

Date Polling firm Publisher Gantz Levin Neither Undecided 26 Jul 23 Midgam HaHadashot 12[208] 41 17 37 5

Lapid vs. Levin

Date Polling firm Publisher Lapid Levin Neither Undecided 26 Jul 23 Midgam HaHadashot 12[208] 26 19 49 6

Netanyahu vs. Gantz vs. Lapid

Open question

The following polls asked prime ministerial preferences as an open question without providing a list of options.

Voting intention relative to vote in previous election

The following polls asked potential voters about their voting intentions in the next election relative to their vote in the previous election:

Date Polling firm Publisher Will vote for same party as last election Will vote for different party in the same political bloc voted for in previous election Will vote for a party in a different political bloc than the one voted for in previous election Other None Undecided 24–26 Oct 23 Viterbi Center Israel Democracy Institute[210] 39.7 14.8 6.3 1.3 10.6 27.3

Approval ratings

Government party figures

· Prime Minister

· Leader of the Likud party

· Minister of Defense

· Member of the Likud party

· Minister of National Security

· Leader of the Otzma Yehudit party

· Minister of Education

· Minister of Regional Cooperation

· Member of the Likud party

Date Polling firm Publisher Approve Disapprove Undecided 25 Aug 23 Midgam HaHadashot 12[198] 24 53 23 30 Jul 23 Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom[212] 17 49 34 23 Jun 23 Midgam HaHadashot 12[217] 28 55 17 3 May 23 Kantar Kan 11[213] 26 – –

· Minister of Finance

· A Minister in the Ministry of Defense

· Leader of the Religious Zionist Party

· Minister of Foreign Affairs

· Member of the Likud party

Date Polling firm Publisher Approve Disapprove Undecided 23 Jun 23 Midgam HaHadashot 12[217] 34 44 22 3 May 23 Kantar Kan 11[213] 33 – –

· Minister of National Infrastructure, Energy, and Water

· Member of the Likud party

Date Polling firm Publisher Approve Disapprove Undecided 23 Jun 23 Midgam HaHadashot 12[217] 27 47 26

· Deputy Prime Minister

· Minister of Justice

· Member of the Likud party

· Minister of Housing & Construction

· Leader of the Agudat Yisrael party

Date Polling firm Publisher Approve Disapprove Undecided 23 Jun 23 Midgam HaHadashot 12[217] 17 59 24 3 May 23 Kantar Kan 11[213] 15 – –

· Minister of Transport, National Infrastructure and Road Safety

· Member of the Likud party

Date Polling firm Publisher Approve Disapprove Undecided 23 Jun 23 Midgam HaHadashot 12[217] 28 62 10 2 Jun 23 Midgam HaHadashot 12[219] 29 58 13 3 May 23 Kantar Kan 11[213] 32 – – 6 Apr 23 Midgam HaHadashot 12[215] 23 63 14

· Minister of Information

· Member of the Likud party

Date Polling firm Publisher Approve Disapprove Undecided 23 Jun 23 Midgam HaHadashot 12[217] 16 62 22 6 Apr 23 Midgam HaHadashot 12[215] 17 63 20

· Minister of Economy

· Member of the Likud party

Date Polling firm Publisher Approve Disapprove Undecided 23 Jun 23 Midgam HaHadashot 12[217] 32 53 15

· Chair of the Knesset Constitution, Law and Justice Committee

· Member of the Religious Zionist Party

Date Polling firm Publisher Approve Disapprove Undecided 21 Mar 23 Direct Polls Channel 14[218] 35 60 –

Opposition party figures

Date Polling firm Publisher Approve Disapprove Undecided 30 Jul 23 Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom[212] 40 37 23 6 Apr 23 Midgam HaHadashot 12[215] 54 37 9

Date Polling firm Publisher Approve Disapprove Undecided 30 Jul 23 Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom[212] 25 52 23 6 Apr 23 Midgam HaHadashot 12[215] 37 57 6 20 Jan 23 Midgam HaHadashot 12[220] 30 59 11

Date Polling firm Publisher Approve Disapprove Undecided 6 Apr 23 Midgam HaHadashot 12[215] 29 60 11

Date Polling firm Publisher Approve Disapprove Undecided 6 Apr 23 Midgam HaHadashot 12[215] 19 70 11

Other questions

Satisfaction with result of 2022 election

Date Polling firm Publisher Satisfied Dissatisfied Undecided 28 Nov–1 Dec 22 Viterbi Center Israel Democracy Institute[221] 43[c] 52[d] 5

See also

Notes

[END]
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[1] Url: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Israeli_legislative_election

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