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Gaza Strip Targeted Analysis (May 31, 2024): Amid uncertainty, it is possible Famine is ongoing in northern Gaza - occupied Palestinian territory [1]

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Date: 2024-06

This report is an update to the targeted analysis of acute food insecurity in Gaza published by FEWS NET on March 18, 2024, in response to the Israel-Hamas conflict. This IPC-compatible analysis is based on conditions observed through April 30, 2024. FEWS NET does not have an operational presence in Gaza, meaning its approach to monitoring and mapping acute food insecurity in Gaza differs from that in its established reporting countries. The analytical framework and methods of analysis are consistent with project-wide approaches

Key messages

• Upon review of available evidence and known information gaps, FEWS NET finds it is possible, if not likely, that all three IPC thresholds for Famine (food consumption, acute malnutrition, and mortality1 ) were met or surpassed in northern Gaza in April. FEWS NET also assesses it is possible Famine2 will persist through at least July if there is not a fundamental change in how food assistance is distributed and accessed after entering Gaza. While the availability of food aid and informal market supplies critically increased in March and April, it is unlikely that over 80 percent of the northern Gaza population averted catastrophic hunger (≥50 percent deficit of daily caloric needs). Amid severe hunger, disease, and inadequate nutrition treatment and prevention, it is possible acute malnutrition and mortality levels were above the IPC thresholds in April. While there is an understandable desire for a more definitive determination, the conflict and humanitarian access constraints will likely continue to impede data collection. It is already clear children have died from hunger-related causes, and government decision makers should act urgently to mitigate loss of life regardless of whether the Famine (IPC Phase 5) thresholds are reached or surpassed.

• In southern Gaza, FEWS NET assesses Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) area-level outcomes – inclusive of households in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) – were likely ongoing in April; however, the impacts of the Israeli military offensive in Rafah are seriously disrupting food distribution channels and worsening access to food, bringing the south into Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) between May and July. Until now, the available food supply in the south has been consistently higher than in the north, and food distribution reports in March and April suggested comparatively higher household access to food assistance. Acute malnutrition data collected from mid-March to mid-April show Acceptable (≤5 percent) to Alert/Serious (5-9.9 percent) levels that are well below the Famine (IPC Phase 5) threshold. However, the impact of lifesaving interventions will be diminished quickly given the displacement of 800,000 people from Rafah amid increased conflict intensity that is compromising the safety of both civilians and humanitarians. Food and nutrition assistance have been key to preventing Famine (IPC Phase 5) in the south to date, and it is possible a sustained, large-scale disruption of assistance would lead to Famine in the period beyond July.

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[1] Url: https://reliefweb.int/report/occupied-palestinian-territory/gaza-strip-targeted-analysis-may-31-2024-amid-uncertainty-it-possible-famine-ongoing-northern-gaza

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