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Republicans seem ready to punt on immigration deal because of Trump [1]

['Aaron Blake', 'Staff Writer']

Date: 2024-01-25

A little-noticed social media post last week featured a lament from Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.), the GOP’s lead negotiator on a potential immigration deal. “Only in Washington is our southern border political gamesmanship instead of a national security crisis,” Lankford said. Wp Get the full experience. Choose your plan ArrowRight Only in Washington is our southern border political gamesmanship instead of a national security crisis. — Sen. James Lankford (@SenatorLankford) January 17, 2024 It wasn’t clear whom Lankford was accusing of political gamesmanship. But it came amid a growing push from the right wing of his party, Donald Trump and his allies to kill a promising potential deal.

And a week later, Republicans have done a great job confirming that they won’t do anything on the border for one big reason: political expediency.

As The Washington Post’s Tobi Raji, Theodoric Meyer and Leigh Ann Caldwell report, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on Wednesday privately offered a dour prognosis for a deal that would unite border security measures with funding for Ukraine’s war effort. In doing so, McConnell pointed to Trump’s apparent ascension as the presumptive GOP presidential nominee. (Trump, who won the New Hampshire primary Tuesday, has called for Republicans to reject the bipartisan compromise.)

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Punchbowl News and others reported that McConnell specifically cited a desire not to “undermine” Trump and the fact that the former president would like to campaign on immigration in the 2024 election.

Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) called it “appalling” that Trump “would communicate to Republican senators and congresspeople that he doesn’t want us to solve the border problem because he wants to blame [President] Biden for it.”

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) told USA Today, “Is it really better to have 10,000 people crossing a day illegally or 5,000? Clearly it’s 5,000. So somebody who is trying to defeat legislation, all in the name of running for office? That is irresponsible.”

McConnell has since clarified that he still aims to forge a deal, Romney said Thursday — though it remains to be seen how hard he’ll push.

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It’s been clear for a while that the politics of this issue would be tough, especially in a GOP-controlled House which has balked at what senators like Lankford are negotiating. The public details of the deal are sparse so far, but key aspects include toughening rules for those who show up at the border to claim asylum. A sticking point has been how to handle parole for migrants to temporarily enter the United States.

But specifically citing Trump and his campaign takes things to another level. The objections don’t seem to just be about the difficulty in passing something or that it would be insufficient in stemming the flow at the border, but about how it would play politically. This from a party that has played up the immediacy of what it labeled a national security crisis at the border.

The shift also comes, notably, after McConnell and other top Republicans previously stressed the opportunity at hand — and the necessity to get something done now.

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Senate Republicans last week actually pushed back when some of their GOP colleagues and conservative talkers suggested that legislation wasn’t necessary or that they should wait until Trump took office in a year.

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Lankford called it “by far, the most conservative border security bill in four decades.”

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) called it a “historic moment” and assured the GOP that it “won’t” get a better deal with Trump as president. “To get this kind of border security without granting a pathway to citizenship is really unheard of,” Graham said.

The No. 2 Senate Republican, Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), offered similar comments, calling it a “unique moment” and arguing that there’s “absolutely no way” to get such a deal under Trump unless Republicans get a 60-seat, filibuster-proof majority.

McConnell himself maintained that even full GOP control of Washington wouldn’t work, because “we probably would not be able to get a single Democratic vote to pass” the deal.

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“This is a unique opportunity to accomplish something in divided government,” McConnell said.

The logical extension of those comments is that Republicans might be giving up doing something significant on the border: If it’s not going to happen under Trump, and you’re not going to do it now, it’s not going to happen, period.

And by sticking their necks out in favor of the push for a deal, they have made it look even more like political gamesmanship rather than national security concerns killed the agreement. It’s becoming increasingly difficult to dispute that Trump and some Republicans see political value in continuing the border crisis and declining to cut a bipartisan deal that could help Biden politically. GOP lawmakers are now talking openly about that.

A comment I keep coming back to on this is one from Rep. Troy E. Nehls (R-Tex.), who just came out and said it early this month: “I’m not willing to do too damn much right now to help a Democrat and to help Joe Biden’s approval rating.”

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One way to look at McConnell’s comments is just an acknowledgment of the political reality that it was going to be tough to pass. Why even have the Senate pass something that the House won’t — and in the process, make it clear the House killed a deal that could have helped at the border?

But another is that it’s just sheer exasperation with Trump and an attempt to lay the failure of the deal at his feet. This is a man who has relentlessly attacked McConnell, launching racist attacks at his wife and even seeming to suggestively point to McConnell’s demise. Yes, McConnell would appear to be capitulating to Trump after all that, but he’s also effectively blaming Trump.

While walking off the Senate floor Thursday, McConnell was asked about Trump potentially killing the deal.

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[1] Url: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/01/25/gop-sure-looks-like-it-wants-punt-border-crisis-help-trump/

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