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Opinion | More Than Words: 10 Charts That Defined 2023 [1]
['Steven Rattner', 'Taylor Maggiacomo']
Date: 2023-12-28
Opinion More Than Words: 10 Charts That Defined 2023
Some years are defined by a single event or person — a pandemic, a recession, an insurrection — while others are buffeted by a series of disparate forces. Such was 2023. The economy and inflation remained front of mind until the war in Gaza grabbed headlines and the world’s attention — all while Donald Trump’s candidacy loomed in the background.
1. Inflation Fell, Incomes Rose Inflation Year-over-year change in the Consumer Price Index 12% Core goods 10 Headline 8 housing & services 6 4 2 2021 2022 2023 Inflation-adjusted labor income Real incomes, indexed to January 2021 Nov. 30 2.7% +2% +1 no change -1 2021 2022 2023 Inflation-adjusted labor income Inflation Year-over-year change in the Consumer Price Index Real incomes, indexed to January 2021 Nov. 30 2.7% 12% Core goods +2% 10 Headline 8 housing & services +1 6 no change 4 2 -1 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis Note: Inflation and income data through November; Real income refers to wage and salary income per capita, adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Price Index.
Americans still fretted about rising prices, even as inflation subsided significantly. In fact, the prices of some goods actually fell. Gasoline dropped to an average of $3.12 a gallon from a high of $5.02 a gallon in June 2022.
This was not enough to soothe most Americans, many of whom believed their purchasing power was still eroding. Few appreciated that their inflation-adjusted (“real”) incomes rose in 2023 as inflation fell close to the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent.
By November, real incomes were 2.7 percent above their January 2021 levels. Moreover, inequality narrowed as those at the bottom saw their wages rise faster than those at the top.
2. The Economy Exceeded Expectations What Experts Thought Would Happen vs. What Actually Happened 0 10 20% Projected 0.3% Actual 3% Economic growth Unemployment 3.7% 4.8% 25% S&P 500 index 5% 0 100,000 200,000 Jobs added per month −10,400 232,000 jobs What Experts Thought Would Happen vs. What Actually Happened 0 5 10 15 20% Projected 0.3% Actual 3% Economic growth Unemployment 3.7% 4.8% 25% S&P 500 index 5% 0 100,000 200,000 Jobs added per month −10,400 232,000 jobs Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Atlanta Fed GDPNow, Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey Note: The 2023 G.D.P. figure is constructed using the first three quarters of real data, along with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for the fourth quarter. Inflation and unemployment data through November.
Nor were Americans moved by the surprising plethora of positive economic news.
The economy was projected to lose 10,400 jobs a month. Instead, it gained an average of 232,000 a month.
The unemployment rate, which started 2023 at a five-decade low, was projected to rise to nearly 5 percent by the end of the year. Instead it ticked up only trivially, to 3.7 percent.
More than 80 percent of economists predicted that 2023 would end in a recession. Instead, the economy is likely to have expanded by a remarkable 3 percent.
On top of that, the stock market boomed. In 2023, the S&P 500 index rose to near record highs, powered primarily by the technology stocks known on Wall Street as the magnificent seven — Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, NVIDIA, Meta, Microsoft and Tesla.
3. Workers Struck Back Workdays spent on strike 20 million days SAG-AFTRA held the largest strike of the year, with 160,000 workers across 82 days, equaling over 13 million work stoppage days. 15 10 Writers Guild of America 5 United Auto Workers 0 2005 1985 1995 2015 2023 Workdays spent on strike 20 million days SAG-AFTRA held the largest strike of the year, with 160,000 workers across 82 days, equaling over 13 million work stoppage days. 15 10 Writers Guild of America 5 United Auto Workers 0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2023 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: 2023 data through November
The combination of the robust American jobs machine and rising prices led workers to demand better pay to an extent not seen in more than two decades.
From actors to hotel employees and auto workers, Americans took to the picket lines. Through November, workers spent almost 17 million days on strike, more than from 2009 to 2022 combined.
While the disputes were mostly about pay, other concerns bubbled up, principally around potential job losses from technological advances. Autoworkers took issue with the possible impact of electric vehicles. Screenwriters and actors were concerned about artificial intelligence (along with the loss of royalty payments as viewers increasingly turn to streaming services).
4. Poor Presidential Approval Approval ratings in December before Election Day for second term 50% 39% Biden Trump 45% Obama 43% 58% W. Bush Clinton 51% H.W. Bush 51% Reagan 54% Carter 54% Approval ratings in December before Election Day for second term 50% Biden 39% Trump 45% Obama 43% W. Bush 58% Clinton 51% H.W. Bush 51% Reagan 54% Carter 54% Source: Gallup
Usually a strong economy buoys an incumbent president. Not this year.
President Biden’s approval rating, which peaked at 55 percent early in his term, ended the year at just 39 percent, the lowest of any modern incumbent at this point in his tenure. Just 22 percent of Americans believed the country was on the right track; only 17 percent feel they are better off than before Mr. Biden became president.
Even Jimmy Carter, bedeviled by high interest rates, slowing economic growth and inflation, was more popular at this point in his term. Why? Two of many complex reasons stand out to me. First, for two-thirds of voting-age Americans, the current inflation is the highest of their adult lifetimes. And second, two decades of subpar income growth has threatened the notion that each successive generation will live better than the previous one.
5. Trump’s Multiple Indictments Number of charges Size of circle corresponds to number of charges each person received Classified documents Donald Trump Walt Nauta 40 charges 8 Carlos de Oliveira 4 Fulton County, Ga. Jeffrey Clark Harrison Floyd Stephen Lee 2 3 5 Robert Cheeley John Eastman Cathleen Latham 10 9 11 Scott Hall Michael Roman 7 Donald Trump Rudy Giuliani 7 Shawn Still 13 13 Sidney Powell 7 Kenneth Chesebro David Shafer 7 Ray Smith 2 12 7 8 Mark Meadows Trevian Kutti Misty Hampton 2 3 7 Jenna Ellis Hush money January 6 Donald Trump 4 34 Donald Trump Number of charges Size of circle corresponds to number of charges each person received Fulton County, Ga. Jeffrey Clark Harrison Floyd Classified documents Stephen Lee 2 3 5 Robert Cheeley John Eastman Cathleen Latham 10 9 11 Scott Hall 7 Michael Roman Donald Trump Walt Nauta Donald Trump 40 charges 8 Rudy Giuliani 7 13 Shawn Still 13 Carlos de Oliveira Sidney Powell 7 4 Kenneth Chesebro David Shafer 7 Ray Smith 2 12 7 8 Mark Meadows Hush money Trevian Kutti Misty Hampton 2 3 January 6 7 Jenna Ellis Donald Trump 4 34 Donald Trump Sources: Fulton County Superior Court; Department of Justice; Manhattan District Attorney's Office
Of course, Mr. Trump remained a dominant political figure, despite his indictments on 91 counts. Indeed, to paraphrase Nietzsche, that which didn’t kill him only seemed to make him stronger.
His dominance of the field of Republican presidential aspirants increased to 61 percent in the most recent polls, up from 45 percent at the beginning of the year. And each round of indictments brought a surge of fund-raising receipts.
For example, Mr. Trump raised a stunning $13 million in the seven days after his New York indictment, and a stunning $4.2 million following the release of his Fulton County mug shot.
6. Israel and Gaza Arab-Israeli war death toll estimates Israel Palestine Lebanon Egypt others 20,000 deaths 0 10,000 2023 Israel-Hamas War 2014 Gaza War 2008 Operation Cast Lead 2006 Lebanon War 2000-5 Second Intifada 1987-93 First Intifada 1982 Lebanon War 1973 Yom Kippur War 1967-70 War of Attrition Arab-Israeli War of 1967 1956 Suez Crisis 1948 Arab-Israeli War Arab-Israeli war death toll estimates Israel Palestine Lebanon Egypt others 20,000 deaths 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 2023 Israel-Hamas War 2014 Gaza War 2008 Operation Cast Lead 2006 Lebanon War 2000-5 Second Intifada 1987-93 First Intifada 1982 Lebanon War 1973 Yom Kippur War 1967-70 War of Attrition Arab-Israeli War of 1967 1956 Suez Crisis 1948 Arab-Israeli War Sources: Israel Defense Forces; Gaza Health Ministry; The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East; United Nations; Human Rights Watch; B'Tselem; Shin Bet; Associated Press; Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics; New York Times Note: Figures reflect available death counts and estimates by nationality. Estimates and counts vary among sources. Faded bars reflect high variance in available estimates.
Economics and politics notwithstanding, the most significant event of the year was the war in the Middle East, which after just three months may be the deadliest Arab-Israeli conflict since 1948.
Israelis and non-Israelis alike found staggering the ability of Hamas to launch such a sophisticated surprise attack and the brutality that ensued. Israeli civilians were tortured, raped and murdered. Thousands of Palestinians — more than two-thirds of them women and children — have since been killed in Gaza by Israel’s retaliatory air strikes.
Public opinion in America, squarely on the Israeli side at the outset, began to shift, particularly among the young. By November, a majority of voters between the ages of 18 and 34 felt more sympathy for Palestinians, up from 26 percent in October, according to polling from Quinnipiac University.
7. A.I. Got (a Lot) Smarter ChatGPT performance on standardized tests 25 50 75 100% GPT-3.5 GPT-4 GRE verbal +35% SAT reading +6 Bar +80 SAT math +19 +48 LSAT GRE math +55 MKSAP +22 ChatGPT performance on standardized tests 25 50 75 100% GPT-4 GPT-3.5 GRE verbal +35% SAT reading +6 Bar +80 SAT math +19 LSAT +48 GRE math +55 MKSAP +22 Source: OpenAI
Following the debut of OpenAI’s ChatGPT late last year, 2023 was the year artificial intelligence — its novelty, danger and revolutionary promise alike — went mainstream.
As the superpowered A.I. made its way into classrooms and offices, a flotilla of concerns quickly emerged, ranging from job losses to accidental nuclear war. That noted, I believe A.I. has the potential to accelerate our flagging productivity growth (much as computers did), raising the prospect of accelerating lagging income growth for workers.
One study found that workers equipped with ChatGPT became 37 percent faster at basic writing and research tasks. The A.I. revolution showed no sign of slowing, either. The first version of GPT, developed in 2018, had 117 million parameters; 2020’s GPT-3 had 175 billion. GPT-4, released this year, has a trillion, according to a report by Semafor.
8. G.O.P. Chaos Days as House speaker 6,000 days 0 2,000 4,000 Sam Rayburn Thomas P. O’Neill Jr. John W. McCormack Henry Clay Nancy Pelosi 2,923 days J. Dennis Hastert 2,920 Champ Clark Joseph G. Cannon Andrew Stevenson Other James G. Blaine Republican party Carl B. Albert Democratic party Frederick H. Gillett Thomas S. Foley John G. Carlisle Schuyler Colfax Nicholas Longworth Nathaniel Macon John A. Boehner Thomas Brackett Reed William B. Bankhead Samuel J. Randall Joseph W. Martin Newt Gingrich 1,461 Joseph B. Varnum Linn Boyd David B. Henderson Charles F. Crisp Jonathan Dayton James K. Polk Paul D. Ryan 1,163 Frederick Muhlenberg Jim Wright John White Galusha Grow John W. Taylor Henry T. Rainey Joseph W. Byrns Jonathan Trumbull John W. Davis Theodore Sedgwick John W. Jones Philip P. Barbour J. Warren Keifer Robert C. Winthrop John N. Garner James L. Orr McCarthy is the first speaker in U.S. history to be ousted in a vote, 216-210. Robert M.T. Hunter Howell Cobb Langdon Cheves Nathaniel P. Banks William Pennington John Bell Kevin McCarthy 270 Michael C. Kerr Theodore M. Pomeroy 1 Current Speaker Mike Johnson Days as House speaker 6,000 days 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 Sam Rayburn Thomas P. O’Neill Jr. John W. McCormack Henry Clay Nancy Pelosi 2,923 days J. Dennis Hastert 2,920 Champ Clark Joseph G. Cannon Andrew Stevenson Other James G. Blaine Republican party Carl B. Albert Democratic party Frederick H. Gillett Thomas S. Foley John G. Carlisle Schuyler Colfax Nicholas Longworth Nathaniel Macon John A. Boehner Thomas Brackett Reed William B. Bankhead Samuel J. Randall Joseph W. Martin Newt Gingrich 1,461 Joseph B. Varnum Linn Boyd David B. Henderson Charles F. Crisp Jonathan Dayton James K. Polk Paul D. Ryan 1,163 Frederick Muhlenberg Jim Wright John White Galusha Grow John W. Taylor Henry T. Rainey Joseph W. Byrns Jonathan Trumbull John W. Davis Theodore Sedgwick John W. Jones Philip P. Barbour J. Warren Keifer Robert C. Winthrop John N. Garner McCarthy is the first speaker in U.S. history to be ousted in a vote, 216-210. James L. Orr Robert M.T. Hunter Howell Cobb Langdon Cheves Nathaniel P. Banks William Pennington John Bell Kevin McCarthy 270 Michael C. Kerr Theodore M. Pomeroy 1 Current Speaker Mike Johnson Source: U.S. House of Representatives archive Note: Mike Johnson became speaker on Oct. 25, 2023.
Congress set a new low bar for itself.
In the House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy fought through 15 ballots — the most since the years before the Civil War — to become speaker. And then he lasted just 270 days in the role, as a faction of far-right Republicans battled with more moderate party members.
That contributed to Congress notching its most unproductive year in modern history, with just 27 bills clearing both chambers and the White House. In comparison, the previous Congress passed more than 70 bills in its first year, and the Truman-era “Do Nothing” Congress approved almost 400 bills in its first few months.
By the end of the year, Congress had passed none of its 12 appropriation measures and had failed to act on an urgent need for aid in Ukraine and Israel and to address the mounting border crisis.
9. Surge at the Border Migrant encounters at the southern border 2023 saw 2.5 million migrant encounters at the southern border 2 million Port of entry 1.5 Between ports of entry 1 0.5 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2023 Migrant encounters at the southern border 2023 saw 2.5 million migrant encounters at the southern border 2 million Port of entry 1.5M Between ports of entry 1M 500K 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2023 Source: U.S. Customs and Border Protection, Congressional Research Service Note: Data for "inadmissibles'' encountered at ports of entry have limited availability. Exact encounters are shown since 2010, and FY 2005-09 are projected from national encounters data.
The flood of migrants seeking to cross our southern border surged to record levels, creating a political crisis for Mr. Biden.
Misinformation added to the commotion. The 2.5 million “encounters” in fiscal year 2023 cited in press reports represented the number of migrants who were apprehended by U.S. Customs and Border Protection.
Roughly one million of those apprehended were released inside the U.S. to await hearings in our underfunded and backlogged immigration courts, creating a major challenge for New York and other cities to which many traveled. Beyond the 2.5 million encounters, a (relatively) modest 600,000 more were believed to have sneaked into the country without being caught.
Of the 1.4 million new court cases added in fiscal year 2023, just 100,000 have been resolved.
10. The Hottest Year on Record Deviation from 20th-century average November 2023 1.44° 1.5°C 1.13° 1.0 0.5 Annual average 0.0 February 1979 -0.06°, the last cold month −0.5 1960 1980 2000 2020 Deviation from 20th-century average November 2023 1.44° 1.5°C 1.13° 1.0 0.5 Annual average 0.0 February 1979 -0.06°, the last cold month −0.5 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Source: National Centers for Environmental Information Note: 2023 data through November
As if we needed another reminder of the climate crisis, global temperatures notched another record high in 2023. Bizarre weather events, from flooding in California to hailstorms in Texas, led to a record number of billion-dollar disaster claims in the United States.
Further afield, Antarctic sea ice hit a record low. Passage of the biggest climate package ever in 2022 spurred a surge in construction of renewable energy facilities this year. But emissions continued to rise globally, largely from faster-growing developing countries, particularly China and India.
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[1] Url:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/12/28/opinion/2023-charts-inflation-politics.html
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