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Cross-Tabs: December 2023 Times/Siena Poll of the Likely Electorate [1]

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Date: 2023-12-19

Toplines | Registered Voter Cross-Tabs | Likely Electorate Cross-Tabs

Party ID is self-identified party, without leaners; independents include only self-identified independents. Party registration is the respondent’s party as listed on the voter file.

Party ID is self-identified party, without leaners; independents include only self-identified independents. Party registration is the respondent’s party as listed on the voter file.

Would you be open to commenting on the issues in this survey and be interested in being contacted by a reporter?

(Excluding "I did not vote") Who did you vote for in the 2020 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, or did you not vote?

Who did you vote for in the 2020 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, or did you not vote?

(If independent, another party or not sure) And as of today, do you lean more to:

Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or a member of another party?

(If Protestant, Christian, Mormon, Greek/Russian Orthodox or some other religion) Do you consider yourself an evangelical or born-again Christian?

Do you consider yourself Catholic, Protestant, Mormon, Jewish, Muslim, some other religion, or do you have no religious affiliation?

Which of the following general income categories is your total household income before taxes?

Do you consider yourself politically liberal, moderate or conservative? [FOLLOW UP: (If liberal or conservative) Is that very or somewhat?]

Would you consider yourself: [IF biracial or multiracial ask: What races would that be?]

Now just a few questions for demographic purposes... Are you of Hispanic origin or descent, such as Mexican, Dominican, Puerto Rican, Cuban or some other Spanish background?

(If social media user) How often, if ever, do you use TikTok?

How often, if ever, do you use social media, such as Facebook, Instagram, TikTok or others?

[VOL] International news sources (such as the BBC, Al Jazeera and The Guardian)

[VOL] National print or online news organizations, like The New York Times or The Wall Street Journal

What single news source do you turn to most often? This could include a social media site or a news site.

(If not taking enough precautions) Do you think Israel is intentionally or unintentionally killing civilians?

Thinking about Israel’s military operation in Gaza, do you think Israel …

(Combined) Which comes closer to your view, even if neither is exactly right?

Israel should continue its military campaign until Hamas is fully eliminated, even if it means the civilian casualties in Gaza might continue.

Israel should stop its military campaign in order to protect against civilian casualties, even if Hamas has not been fully eliminated.

(Split B) Which comes closer to your view, even if neither is exactly right?

Israel should continue its military campaign until all hostages are released, even if it means civilian casualties in Gaza might continue.

Israel should stop its military campaign in order to protect against civilian casualties, even if not all Israeli hostages have been released.

(Split A) Which comes closer to your view, even if neither is exactly right?

Thinking about the broader Israeli-Palestinian [pah-luh-stin-ian] conflict, do you think Palestinians [pah-luh-stin-ians] are seriously interested in a peaceful solution, or are they not seriously interested in a peaceful solution?

[ROTATE ORDER OF NEXT TWO QUESTIONS] Thinking about the broader Israeli-Palestinian [pah-luh-stin-ian] conflict, do you think Israel is seriously interested in a peaceful solution, or is it not seriously interested in a peaceful solution?

In the dispute between Israel and the Palestinians [pah-luh-stin-ians], which side do you sympathize with more; Israel or the Palestinians [pah-luh-stin-ians]?

Do you support or oppose providing additional economic and military support to Israel? [FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?]

(If disapprove of Biden on Israel) Do you think Joe Biden is too supportive of Israel, too supportive of the Palestinians [pah-luh-stin-ians], or is his support of Israel and the Palestinians [pah-luh-stin-ians] about right?

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling the Israeli-Palestinian [pah-luh-stin-ian] conflict? FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?

Regardless of how you might vote, tell me whether you trust Joe Biden or Donald Trump to do a better job on the Israeli-Palestinian [pah-luh-stin-ian] conflict.

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Joe Biden.

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump.

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president? FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?

What do you think is the MOST important problem facing the country today?

What is the highest educational level that you have completed?

(Recoded to age) In what year were you born?

(Includes leaners) If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:

Thinking ahead to next year’s presidential general election, are you almost certain that you will vote, very likely to vote, somewhat likely to vote, not very likely to vote or not at all likely to vote?

Methodology

The New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,016 registered voters nationwide was conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones from Dec. 10 to 14, 2023. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3.5 percentage points for registered voters and +/- 3.7 percentage points for the likely electorate.

Sample

The survey is a response rate-adjusted stratified sample of registered voters on the L2 voter file. The sample was selected by The New York Times in multiple steps to account for differential telephone coverage, nonresponse and significant variation in the productivity of telephone numbers by state.

First, records were selected by state. To adjust for noncoverage bias, the L2 voter file was stratified by statehouse district, party, race, gender, marital status, household size, turnout history, age and home ownership. The proportion of registrants with a telephone number and the mean expected response rate were calculated for each stratum. The mean expected response rate was based on a model of unit nonresponse in prior Times/Siena surveys. The initial selection weight was equal to the reciprocal of a stratum’s mean telephone coverage and modeled response rate. For respondents with multiple telephone numbers on the L2 file, the number with the highest modeled response rate was selected.

Second, state records were selected for the national sample. The number of records selected by state was based on a model of unit nonresponse in prior Times/Siena national surveys as a function of state (as a random effect), telephone number quality, age, race, turnout and metropolitan status. The state’s share of records was equal to the reciprocal of the mean response rate of the state’s records, divided by the national sum of the weights.

Fielding

The sample was stratified by party, race and region and fielded by the Siena College Research Institute, with additional field work by ReconMR, the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida and the Institute of Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College. Interviewers asked for the person named on the voter file and ended the interview if the intended respondent was not available. Overall, 95 percent of respondents were reached on a cellular telephone.

The instrument was translated into Spanish by ReconMR. Bilingual interviewers began the interview in English and were instructed to follow the lead of the respondent in determining whether to conduct the survey in English or Spanish. Monolingual Spanish-speaking respondents who were initially contacted by English-speaking interviewers were recontacted by Spanish-speaking interviewers. Overall, 9 percent of interviews among self-reported Hispanics were conducted in Spanish, including 14 percent of weighted interviews.

Weighting — registered voters

The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.

First, the sample was adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.

Second, the sample was weighted to match voter file-based parameters for the characteristics of registered voters.

The following targets were used:

• Party (party registration if available, else classification based on a model of vote choice in prior Times/Siena polls) by whether the respondent’s race is modeled as white or nonwhite (L2 model)

• Age (Self-reported age, or voter file age if the respondent refuses) by gender (L2).

• Race or ethnicity (L2 model)

• Education (four categories of self-reported education, weighted to match NYT-based targets derived from Times/Siena polls, census data and the L2 voter file)

• White/non-white race by college or non-college educational attainment (L2 model of race weighted to match NYT-based targets for self-reported education)

• Marital status (L2 model)

• Home ownership (L2 model)

• National region (NYT classifications by state)

• Turnout history (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• Vote method in the 2020 elections (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• Metropolitan status (2013 NCHS Urban–Rural Classification Scheme for Counties)

Weighting — likely electorate

The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.

First, the samples were adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.

Second, the first-stage weight was adjusted to account for the probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election, based on a model of turnout in the 2020 election.

Third, the sample was weighted to match targets for the composition of the likely electorate. The targets for the composition of the likely electorate were derived by aggregating the individual-level turnout estimates described in the previous step for registrants on the L2 voter file. The categories used in weighting were the same as those previously mentioned for registered voters.

Fourth, the initial likely electorate weight was adjusted to incorporate self-reported vote intention. The final probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election was four-fifths based on their ex ante modeled turnout score and one-fifth based on their self-reported intention, based on prior Times/Siena polls, including a penalty to account for the tendency of survey respondents to turn out at higher rates than nonrespondents. The final likely electorate weight was equal to the modeled electorate rake weight, multiplied by the final turnout probability and divided by the ex ante modeled turnout probability.

The margin of error accounts for the survey’s design effect, a measure of the loss of statistical power due to survey design and weighting. The design effect is 1.29 for registered voters and 1.47 for the likely electorate.

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[1] Url: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/12/19/us/elections/times-siena-poll-likely-electorate-crosstabs.html

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