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COP28: Push for fossil fuel phase out continues as latest draft text emerges [1]

['James Murray In Dubai', 'Tara Singh', 'Hill']

Date: 2023-12-05 10:00:14+00:00

The negotiations at the COP28 Climate Summit in Dubai are set to move up a gear today following the publication of the latest draft of the Global Stocktake, which has emerged as the key negotiating text that will determine the success or failure of the fortnight long talks.

Under the Paris Agreement, countries are this year required to produce a Global Stocktake of progress to date against the treaty's goals of limiting temperature increases to 1.5C or well below 2C and set out plans for delivering on those overarching targets.

Scientists have warned the world is currently on track for 3C of warming this century and as such the focus of the negotiations is on how to drastically accelerate decarbonisation and climate resilience efforts.

Widely seen as a coup for the UAE hosts, on its first day the Summit confirmed the operationalisation and capitalisation of a new Loss and Damage Fund for climate vulnerable nations, which has since attracted $655m in pledges so far, while replenishment pledges for the Green Climate Fund now stand at $12.8bn.

The final text is also widely expected to feature new goals to accelerate clean tech deployment, with over 100 countries backing proposals for targets to treble renewables capacity and double the rate of energy efficiency improvement by 2030.

At 24 pages, the draft Global Stocktake text published this morning still has a long way to go until it is whittled down into a final agreement by the end of the Summit, and at present includes some 96 different options for phrasing and pledges across various issues across climate mitigation, adaptation, loss and damage, and finance.

However, the key dividing line in the negotiations remains around the future of fossil fuels with the latest draft text offering what analysts described as "a mixed bag of options".

The first option included in the text is a commitment to "an orderly and just phase out of fossil fuels". Over 25 countries are said to support such a commitment, while over 100 nations are understood to support a more caveated proposal to "phase out unabated fossil fuels".

However, an alliance of petrostates and emerging economies are fiercely opposed to any commitment to "phase out" fossil fuels.

The new draft text therefore features a compromise proposal that would commit countries to "accelerating efforts towards phasing out unabated fossil fuels and to rapidly reducing their use so as to achieve net zero CO2 in energy systems by or around mid-century".

Analysts noted that the new wording is heavily caveated, committing countries only to "efforts towards" tackling "unabated" fossil fuels, while also only covering energy systems rather than entire economies. But it does reference the need to "phase out" rather than "phase down" unabated fossil fuels and sets a goal to rapidly reduce the use of fossil fuels, which would imply a desire to limit the use of carbon capture and removal technologies.

However, the draft also includes an option for including no reference at all to phasing out fossil fuels, highlighting the continued opposition to the proposals among some countries.

The draft text also reiterates oft-repeated commitments to end the use of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies, while repeating language in the final agreement at COP26 in Glasgow to "accelerate the phasedown of unabated coal power", and calling to "rapidly" increase the deployment of zero emission vehicles.

And there is a proposal to recognise the need for "a just energy transition that takes into account different starting points and national circumstances, as well as energy security, affordability, and accessibility and the need for sustainable development".

Analysts indicated the wording could provide countries with a compromise agreement that could both allow for some continued investment in fossil fuel infrastructure in exceptional circumstances, while also strengthening developing economies' calls for climate finance packages to help them decarbonise.

More than 200 multinational businesses have jointly called for a the final COP28 agreement to include a commitment to a global phase-out of unabated fossil fuels, joining calls for more than 120 countries which have also backed such phrasing.

Maria Mendiluce, CEO of the We Mean Business Coalition, said a phase out of unabated fossil fuels was "vital" for standing a chance of limiting global warming to 1.5C.

"We can do this," she said. " Let's be very clear: the science and economics show that we can phase out fossil fuels in an orderly way that is better for the economy, security, health and therefore people. More than 200 companies representing $1.5tr of revenue already agree on this. Governments should follow suit."

Among a raft of options in the Global Stocktake draft, there is also a paragraph proposed that would call for "a rapid phase out of unabated coal power this decade, and an immediate cessation of the permitting of new unabated coal power generation", which is likely to be fiercely opposed by some parties.

With regards to individual countries' climate goals - or nationally-determined contributions (NDCs), in the UN jargon - the current draft text includes options that push for NDCs to align with the 1.5C scientific pathway for a peak in global emissions by 2025 at the latest, a 43 per cent cut by 2030 and a 60 per cent cut in global emissions by 2035, on the journey to net zero by mid-century.

One potential option even includes a request for developed countries to seek to reach net zero by 2040 before achieving negative greenhouse gas emissions "as soon as possible".

Linda Kalcher, executive director of European climate think tank Strategic EU, suggested that while the current iteration of the text left many ambitious options on the table for climate mitigation efforts, many of these would likely be too ambitious to secure consensus from all parties at the Summit. She contrasted these ambitious options with the current text on the phase out of fossil fuels, which she described as "weaker" than the phrasing sought by more than 120 nations.

"The UAE presidency reminds me of a smart chess player, anticipating every move by the other side," she wrote on X, formerly Twitter. "On many options, the text is too strong to be agreeable in this form."

On climate finance, the draft text highlights the need for a "transformation of the financial system and its governance" backed by the engagement of governments, central banks, investors and other financial actors in order to ramp up support for developing and climate vulnerable nations. However, the number of differing options in the text suggest there remain significant disagreements over potential specific measures for doing so, despite the ongoing push led by Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley to put a range of solutions on the table via her Bridgetown Agenda this week.

Similarly, on adaptation, the number of different options on the table would appear to suggest there remain strong divisions over whether developing countries should be aiming to double adaptation financing to developing nations as merely "an initial step", or whether there should merely be a commitment to boost transparency around adaptation financing, or indeed include no text at all on this issue.

Numerous references are also made in draft to loss and damage, and the need to scale up funding for vulnerable nations, however calls have come for more details on precisely where gaps in funding and financing arrangements still exist to be included in the final text in order to drive requisite progress now the global Loss and Damage Fund has been operationalised.

Interestingly, the draft text also sets out several options relating to international trade and carbon pricing, in acknowledgement of increasing moves from the likes of the EU and UK to establish carbon border adjustment mechanisms to charge a levy on imports of carbon-intensive goods and services which have stoked tension with some emerging economies such as China, India and Indonesia. One optional paragraph in the text notes "with appreciation" international carbon pricing initiatives, while in contrast another "expresses serious concern" that the carbon border trade levies being introduced in certain jurisdictions risk undermining the World Trade Organisation rules, as well as the Paris Agreement's commitment to "equity and common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities".

Elsewhere, there is recognition in the present iteration of the text of the need to harness nature restoration to support the planet's climate, including one option that pushes for halting and reversing deforestation by 2030, as many global governments have previously committed to previously.

However, there is at present scant mention in the Global Stocktake text of the need to change agricultural practices and food systems in order to deliver climate goals. Scores of organisations have been pushing for greater onus to be placed on agriculture and food systems in the Global Stocktake text, pointing out their vast impact on the climate, and the need to significantly drive down these emissions in order to reach net zero.

Even so, overall Shirley Matheson, WWF's global NDC enhancement coordinator, described the latest iteration of the Global Stocktake draft text as "bloated".

"It has all the options - food and bad - still on the table," she said. "Good language on phasing out fossil fuels is included as an option, and new text options have been added that call for stronger ambition in the national climate plans, and a new collective goal for 60 per cent emissions cuts by 2035. These signals are essential to create the conditions for more ambitious commitments and more international cooperation to achieve them. The draft also contains an option that recognises that nature is a vital climate ally, although an overall conservation target is still missing."

Ministers are expected to arrive at the Summit in the next few days and will be tasked with condensing the various options included in the draft text to secure a final agreement.

But with just days to go until national Ministers arrive on Friday, Matheson argued time was short to ensure Ministers were given a clearer, and condensed set of options in the text in order to secure an agreement in time.



"Time is running out for negotiators to agree on a draft text with clear political options for ministers later in the week," she said. "Countries must work together to achieve science-aligned guidance and ways forward for a dramatic course correction of climate action. This will give us the best chance of securing a liveable planet."

Speaking yesterday, COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber again urged countries to come forward with compromise language that could result an ambitious outcome that delivers on the Summit's 'North Star' of keeping the 1.5C goal within reach.

He also stressed that to deliver on that target the global economy needed to slash emissions by 43 per cent by 2030 before reaching net zero emissions by mid-century.

As such, he argued that "the phase down and phase out of fossil fuels is inevitable", clarifying previous comments where he had appeared to question the wisdom of phasing out coal, oil and gas.

Tom Evans, policy adviser at climate think tank E3G, urged governments seeking an ambitious agreement from COP28 to maintain the pressure and momentum as the Summit moves into its crucial second week and final week of negotiations from Friday.

"With the clock ticking down to the end of the first week, now's the time for champions of the most ambitious outcomes to keep up the pressure in the negotiations," he said. "We need to see governments coming out strongly for priorities like a fossil fuel phase out, more action on adaptation, and driving total finance system transformation to unlock more money for climate. With sharp divisions between parties, there's a high chance that we get stuck - so above all we need to see the UAE Presidency's game plan for taking this forward next week."

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[1] Url: https://www.businessgreen.com/news/4153020/cop28-push-fossil-fuel-phase-continues-draft-text-emerges

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