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Cross-Tabs: October 2023 Times/Siena Poll of the 2024 Battlegrounds [1]

[]

Date: 2023-11-07

View cross-tabs for: Battleground All Registered Voters | Battleground Likely Electorate | Arizona | Georgia | Michigan | Nevada | Pennsylvania | Wisconsin

Party I.D. is self-identified party, without leaners; independents include only self-identified independents. Party registration is the respondent’s party as listed on the voter file. † Asked of respondents starting Oct. 23.

Party I.D. is self-identified party, without leaners; independents include only self-identified independents. Party registration is the respondent’s party as listed on the voter file. † Asked of respondents starting Oct. 23.

The Siena College Research Institute will guarantee your anonymity [an-a-nim-a-tee]. However, if you would be open to commenting on the issues in this survey, would you like to be contacted by a reporter?

(Excluding "I did not vote") Who did you vote for in the 2020 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, or did you not vote?

Who did you vote for in the 2020 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, or did you not vote?

† (If Protestant, Christian, Mormon, Greek/Russian Orthodox or some other religion) Do you consider yourself an evangelical or born-again Christian?

† Do you consider yourself Catholic, Protestant, Mormon, Jewish, Muslim, some other religion, or do you have no religious affiliation?

(If independent, another party, or don't know on partisanship) And as of today, do you lean more to: [READ LIST]

Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or a member of another party?

Which of the following general income categories is your total household income before taxes? [IF NEEDED: I just want to remind you that you are completely anonymous. We only use this information in aggregate form to ensure we have a representative group of people.]

Do you consider yourself politically liberal, moderate, or conservative? FOLLOW UP: (If liberal or conservative) Is that very or somewhat?

Would you consider yourself: [IF biracial or multi-racial ask: What races would that be?]

Now just a few questions for demographic purposes... Are you of Hispanic origin or descent, such as Mexican, Dominican, Puerto Rican, Cuban, or some other Spanish background?

Are you currently personally paying off any student loans for yourself or your family?

Yes, you and another member of your household are members

Yes, another member of your household is a member

Are you, or is any member of your household, a member of a labor union? [IF YES: Is that you, another household member, or both you and another household member?]

[VOL] Not going to vote/wouldn't vote if those were the choices

(Split 3) (If not voting for Joe Biden earlier) And if Donald Trump were convicted and sentenced to prison but were still the Republican nominee, would you vote for … [READ LIST]

(Split 3) As you may know, Donald Trump will face a federal criminal trial in March for his actions after the 2020 election. Do you think it is likely or unlikely that he will be convicted at the end of the trial? FOLLOW UP: Is that very or somewhat?

He went so far that he threatened American democracy

He was just exercising his right to contest the election

What comes closer to your view about Donald Trump's actions after the 2020 election? [READ LIST]

Thinking about the investigations into Donald Trump, do you think that Donald Trump has or has not committed any serious federal crimes?

(Split 3) To the best of your knowledge, do you think Joe Biden personally profited from his son’s business dealings in Ukraine and China?

(If undecided or persuadable voter) If Donald Trump won the election, do you think it would be good for America or bad for America, or would it not make much difference either way? FOLLOW UP: Is that very or somewhat?

(If undecided or persuadable voter) If Joe Biden won the election, do you think it would be good for America or bad for America, or would it not make much difference either way? FOLLOW UP: Is that very or somewhat?

A Republican candidate who says abortion should be left to the states

(If undecided or persuadable voter) (Split B) Tell me which of the two candidates you would be more likely to support in the 2024 presidential election. [READ LIST]

(If undecided or persuadable voter) (Split A) Tell me which of the two candidates you would be more likely to support in the 2024 presidential election. [READ LIST]

A Republican candidate who says we should move on from the 2020 election

(If undecided or persuadable voter) (Split B) Tell me which of the two candidates you would be more likely to support in the 2024 presidential election. [READ LIST]

(If undecided or persuadable voter) (Split A) Tell me which of the two candidates you would be more likely to support in the 2024 presidential election. [READ LIST]

(If undecided or persuadable voter) Now I'm going to describe two hypothetical candidates for president. Tell me which of the two candidates you would be more likely to support in the 2024 presidential election.

Not too far either way

Do you think Joe Biden is too liberal or progressive, not liberal or progressive enough, or not too far either way?

Not too far either way

(Split 1) Do you think Donald Trump is too conservative, not conservative enough, or not too far either way?

(Split 1) Do you think Donald Trump’s policies have helped you personally or hurt you personally?

(Split 1) Do you think Joe Biden’s policies have helped you personally or hurt you personally?

(Split 2) Do you think Donald Trump has the mental sharpness to be an effective president?

(Split 2) Do you think Donald Trump has the personality and temperament to be an effective president?

(Split 2) Do you think Joe Biden has the mental sharpness to be an effective president?

(Split 2) Do you think Joe Biden has the personality and temperament to be an effective president?

(Split 1) Donald Trump is just too old to be an effective president. [IF NEEDED: Tell me whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree...]

Joe Biden is just too old to be an effective president. [IF NEEDED: Tell me whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree...]

Next, regardless of who you support for president, tell me whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with each of the following statements.

Donald Trump is not much worse for democracy than typical politicians

(If bad for democracy) Which statement comes closer to your view, even if neither is exactly right? [READ LIST]

Do you think Donald Trump is good for democracy, bad for democracy, or neither good nor bad for democracy?

(Split B) Building a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border [IF NEEDED: Tell me whether you support or oppose the policy. FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?]

(Split B) The tariffs on China imposed by President Trump [IF NEEDED: Tell me whether you support or oppose the policy. FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?]

(Split B) Making it harder for migrants at the southern border to seek asylum in the United States [IF NEEDED: Tell me whether you support or oppose the policy. FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?]

(Split B) Providing additional economic and military support to Ukraine [IF NEEDED: Tell me whether you support or oppose the policy. FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?]

(Split B) A federal law banning abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy [IF NEEDED: Tell me whether you support or oppose the policy. FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?]

(Split B) For each of the following items, tell me whether you support or oppose the policy.

(Split A) Democracy [IF NEEDED: Regardless of how you might vote, tell me whether you trust Joe Biden or Donald Trump to do a better job on...]

(Split A) Abortion [IF NEEDED: Regardless of how you might vote, tell me whether you trust Joe Biden or Donald Trump to do a better job on...]

(Split A) The Israeli-Palestinian [pah-luh-stin-ian] conflict [IF NEEDED: Regardless of how you might vote, tell me whether you trust Joe Biden or Donald Trump to do a better job on...]

(Split A) National security [IF NEEDED: Regardless of how you might vote, tell me whether you trust Joe Biden or Donald Trump to do a better job on...]

(Split A) Immigration [IF NEEDED: Regardless of how you might vote, tell me whether you trust Joe Biden or Donald Trump to do a better job on...]

(Split A) The economy [IF NEEDED: Regardless of how you might vote, tell me whether you trust Joe Biden or Donald Trump to do a better job on...]

(Split A) Regardless of how you might vote, tell me whether you trust Joe Biden or Donald Trump to do a better job on each of the following:

Do you think abortion should be always legal, mostly legal, mostly illegal or always illegal?

Thinking about the nation's economy, how would you rate economic conditions today? [READ LIST]

And when it comes to the November 2024 election, would you say you’re very enthusiastic about voting, somewhat enthusiastic about voting, not very enthusiastic about voting or not at all enthusiastic about voting?

Economic issues such as jobs, taxes or the cost of living

What types of issues are more important in deciding who to vote for in the upcoming 2024 election? [READ LIST] [IF NEEDED: If you had to choose one …]

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Joe Biden.

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump.

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president? FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?

[VOL] Not going to vote/wouldn't vote if those were the choices

Thinking again about the 2024 presidential election, who would you vote for if the candidates were: [READ LIST] [IF NEEDED: If you had to decide today, are you leaning toward one candidate?]

[VOL] Not going to vote/wouldn't vote if those were the choices

And who would you vote for if the candidates were: [READ LIST] [IF NEEDED: If you had to decide today, are you leaning toward one candidate?]

[VOL] Not going to vote/wouldn't vote if those were the choices

And who would you vote for if the candidates were: [READ LIST] [IF NEEDED: If you had to decide today, are you leaning toward one candidate?]

[VOL] Not going to vote/wouldn't vote if those were the choices

And who would you vote for if the candidates were: [READ LIST] [IF NEEDED: If you had to decide today, are you leaning toward one candidate?]

[VOL] Not going to vote/wouldn't vote if those were the choices

If Donald Trump were not the Republican nominee, do you think you would: [READ LIST]

[VOL] Not going to vote/wouldn't vote if those were the choices

If Joe Biden were not the Democratic nominee, do you think you would: [READ LIST]

What is the highest educational level that you have completed? [READ LIST]

(Recoded to age) In what year were you born?

(If not supporting Trump) Would you say there’s some chance you will support Donald Trump or not really any chance?

(If not supporting Biden) Would you say there’s some chance you will support Joe Biden or not really any chance?

(If not supporting Trump or Biden) If you had to decide between the two today, would you lean more toward:

[VOL] Not going to vote/wouldn't vote if those were the choices

(Without leaners) Thinking about the upcoming presidential election in 2024, if the election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Joe Biden, the Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican? FOLLOW UP: Are you definitely or probably voting for them? [IF NEEDED: If you had to decide today...]

[VOL] Not going to vote/wouldn't vote if those were the choices

(Includes leaners) Thinking about the upcoming presidential election in 2024, if the election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Joe Biden, the Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican? FOLLOW UP: Are you definitely or probably voting for them? [IF NEEDED: If you had to decide today...]

Thinking ahead to next year’s presidential general election, are you almost certain that you will vote, very likely to vote, somewhat likely to vote, not very likely to vote, or not at all likely to vote?

(Split A) Do you think the United States is on the right track, or is it headed in the wrong direction? [IF NEEDED: Based on anything you may have seen or heard, if you had to pick, would you say right track or wrong direction?]

Methodology

The New York Times/Siena College polls of 3,662 registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones from Oct. 22 to Nov. 3, 2023. When all states are joined together, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 1.8 percentage points for all registered voters and plus or minus 2 percentage points for the likely electorate. The margin of sampling error for each state poll is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points in Arizona, Michigan and Nevada, plus or minus 4.5 points in Georgia, plus or minus 4.6 points in Pennsylvania and plus or minus 4.8 points in Wisconsin.

Sample

The survey is a response rate-adjusted stratified sample of registered voters on the L2 voter file. The sample was selected by The New York Times in multiple steps to account for differential telephone coverage, nonresponse and significant variation in the productivity of telephone numbers by state.

The L2 voter file for each state was stratified by statehouse district, party, race, gender, marital status, household size, turnout history, age and home ownership. The proportion of registrants with a telephone number and the mean expected response rate, based on prior Times/Siena polls, were calculated for each stratum. The initial selection weight was equal to the reciprocal of a stratum’s mean telephone coverage and modeled response rate. For respondents with multiple telephone numbers on the L2 file, the number with the highest modeled response rate was selected.

Fielding

The samples for each state were stratified by party, race and region and fielded by the Siena College Research Institute, with additional field work by ReconMR, the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida and the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College. Interviewers asked for the person named on the voter file and ended the interview if the intended respondent was not available. Overall, 94 percent of respondents were reached on a cellular telephone.

The instrument was translated into Spanish by ReconMR, and Spanish-speaking interviewers were assigned to the modeled Hispanic sample. Bilingual interviewers began the interview in English and were instructed to follow the lead of the respondent in determining whether to conduct the survey in English or Spanish. Monolingual Spanish-speaking respondents who were initially contacted by English-speaking interviewers were recontacted by Spanish-speaking interviewers. Overall, 12 percent of interviews among self-reported Hispanics were conducted in Spanish, including 19 percent in Nevada and 13 percent in Arizona.

Weighting — registered voters

The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.

First, the samples were adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.

Second, the six state samples were weighted separately to match voter file-based parameters for the characteristics of registered voters by state.

The following targets were used:

• Party (party registration if available, else classification based on a model of vote choice in prior Times/Siena polls)

• Age (Self-reported age, or voter file age if the respondent refuses)

• Gender (L2 data)

• Race or ethnicity (L2 model)

• Education (four categories of self-reported education, weighted to match NYT-based targets derived from Times/Siena polls, census data and the L2 voter file)

• Marital status (L2 model)

• Home ownership (L2 model)

• State regions (NYT classifications by county or city)

• Turnout history (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• Vote method in the 2020 elections (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• Census block group density (A.C.S. 5-Year Census Block Group data)

• City type (Nevada only, added based on a post-hoc analysis of the difference between the weighted sample and voter file parameters. The weight had no meaningful effect on the topline result.)

• Census tract educational attainment (Georgia only, added based on a post-hoc analysis of the difference between the weighted sample and voter file parameters. The weight had no meaningful effect on the topline result.)

Finally, the six state samples were balanced to each represent one-sixth of the sum of the weights.

Weighting — likely electorate

The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.

First, the samples were adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.

Second, the first-stage weight was adjusted to account for the probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election, based on a model of turnout in the 2020 election.

Third, the six state samples were weighted separately to match targets for the composition of the likely electorate. The targets for the composition of the likely electorate were derived by aggregating the individual-level turnout estimates described in the previous step for registrants on the L2 voter file. The categories used in weighting were the same as those previously mentioned for registered voters.

Fourth, the initial likely electorate weight was adjusted to incorporate self-reported vote intention. The final probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election was four-fifths based on their ex ante modeled turnout score and one-fifth based on their self-reported intention, based on prior Times/Siena polls, including a penalty to account for the tendency of survey respondents to turn out at higher rates than nonrespondents. The final likely electorate weight was equal to the modeled electorate rake weight, multiplied by the final turnout probability and divided by the ex ante modeled turnout probability.

Finally, the six state samples were balanced to each represent one-sixth of the sum of the weights.

The margin of error accounts for the survey’s design effect, a measure of the loss of statistical power due to survey design and weighting. The design effect for the full battleground sample of registered voters is 1.29. The design effect for the likely electorate is 1.46, which includes the added variance due to incorporating the probability that a respondent will participate in the 2024 election.

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[1] Url: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/11/07/us/elections/times-siena-battlegrounds-registered-voters.html

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