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Poland’s opposition jubilant, ruling party wary ahead of final election count [1]

['Anthony Faiola', 'Annabelle Chapman']

Date: 2023-10-16

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Poland’s centrist opposition rode a wave of jubilant optimism Monday following historic elections, as an exit poll suggested it had a better chance of forming the next government than the ruling hard right. But the country remain locked in what could be a protracted period of political uncertainty, as the governing Law and Justice party scrambled for ways to stay in power.

An opposition victory would mark a sea change in Europe, bringing a bastion of illiberalism allied with Trump Republicans and Hungary’s Viktor Orban back into line with the continent’s core democracies. It would also end the run of a government that sought to roll back the rule of law, control the free press, flout European laws, enforce severe restrictions on abortion and target LGBTQ+ rights.

At a time when the once firmly pro-Ukrainian government in Poland had begun to waver in its support, the opposition has also promised continued military backing for Kyiv.

Donald Tusk, a former Polish prime minister and head of the European Council who drew some of the largest campaign crowds in Poland since the restoration of democracy, preemptively declared victory on Sunday.

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“We did it! Really! … Poland has won, democracy has won. We have removed them from power!” the opposition leader told his supporters late Sunday

But elections officials and members of the ruling Law and Justice party urged Poles to wait for the official count. The fresh exit poll — by Ipsos Mori, which included a greater sample than one released late Sunday — showed Law and Justice placing first as expected but falling well short of a governing majority, with 36.6 percent of the vote.

Tusk’s Civic Platform was shown in second, with 31 percent. But with the aid of two possible coalition partners, it was projected to win 248 of the 460 seats in Parliament — safely above the magic number to form a government: 231. The party seen as the most likely coalition partner for Law and Justice, the even-further-right Confederation, fared worse than expected, according to the exit poll, winning 6.4 percent of the vote.

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The exit poll also suggested a massive turnout of 73 percent, the highest in Poland since the fall of the Berlin Wall.

The official tally has so far appeared to be reasonably in line with the exit poll. With 72 percent of the vote counted, and liberal strongholds in cities yet to be tallied, Law and Justice had 36.92 percent of the vote compared to Civic Platform’s 29.22 percent. Civic Platform’s two likely coalition partners — the Third Way and Left party — had 14.48 percent and 8.30 percent respectively. Confederation — which had denied any plan to go into coalition with Law and Justice — stood at 7.24 percent of the vote.

Joachim Brudzinski, Law and Justice’s campaign manager, told Polish media that the party was still planning to try to form a government and expected current Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki to be given the nod by the hard-right head of state, President Andrzej Duda.

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“We won. I will call it a success. However you look at it, we won,” Brudzinski told Polish radio. “It seems to me in an obvious way that President Andrzej Duda will entrust this mission to Law and Justice.”

Another party official said the government would seek to woo members of an agrarian party that was set to align with Tusk — a claim that brought a quick dismissal from that party’s spokesman.

Analysts said untangling the results could drag through Christmas. “The three pro-EU opposition parties are now the clear favorites to form the next government, but the process might take around two to three months,” Andrius Tursa, Central and Eastern Europe adviser for Teneo, a global consulting firm, said in a Monday note.

Under Poland’s parliamentary system, Duda — a former member and longtime ally of Law and Justice — must pick a prime minister to try to form a government. If that person fails, Parliament would vote on a new prime minister. It remained unclear how Duda would proceed, though he has 30 days to call a first session of Parliament and 14 more to pick a prospective prime minister.

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Following the recent failure of a far-right party in July’s election in Spain, the suggestion of an even more important right-wing defeat in Poland illustrated the tectonic and often opposing political shifts at play across the continent. The far right has made dramatic gains in Europe, especially since the pandemic. But a loss in one of its core strongholds, Poland, would come amid high inflation and fallout from the war in Ukraine. It suggested the far right is susceptible to the same pressures that have ousted incumbents from traditional political parties. Exit polls showed deep voter concern over abortion laws and the rule of law — but their driving issue was the economy.

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A change would also occur despite government attempts to turn state media into a mouthpiece.

“What it means for Europe is a major shift,” said Rosa Balfour, director of Carnegie Europe, a Brussels think tank. “If we get a government without Law and Justice, the relationship between Warsaw and Brussels, which has deteriorated steadily, would change. It also shows that Polish society can make independent decisions even if the media is government controlled.”

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Should the opposition win, Brussels would probably see a familiar advocate of European unity — Tusk — replace a government that sought to undermine the bloc’s standards on the rule of law by politicizing the courts and seeking to silence media dissent. At a time when Poland’s influence in NATO and Europe has grown because of its proximity to the war in Ukraine, Tusk’s more moderate voice could elevate Warsaw further, giving it closer parity to Paris and Berlin and further shifting the center of gravity of the European Union to the east.

“We still have to wait for the final results. But the advance taken by the Polish opposition, which was able to unite the center-right, the center and the left against the conservative populism in power, is a tremendous sign of hope for Poland and its place in Europe,” Nathalie Loiseau, a French lawmaker in the European Parliament, wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter.

An opposition victory would also highlight the ability of moderates to rally their base at make-or-break moments, with Tusk and others portraying the election as the last, best chance to forestall Poland’s descent into autocracy. The exit poll suggested an opposition victory would be built on a coalition of younger voters, highly educated urban dwellers and Poles living in the industrialized western half of the country, which has deeper historical ties to the rest of Europe.

Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the leader of Law and Justice and Poland’s deputy prime minister, has described LGBTQ+ rights as a “threat” to Catholic Poland. Towns influenced by the hard right have declared themselves “LGBTQ+ free zones.” Tusk, meanwhile, has pledged to push for civil unions for same-sex couples and a trans law that would make it easier for Poles to legally declare themselves a different gender. He has also pledged to weaken Poland’s near total ban on abortion.

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Late Sunday and into Monday, advocates of women’s and LGBTQ+ rights celebrated.

“The nightmare ends,” the gay Polish activist Bart Staszewski said on X. “I am gay, I am Polish and I am proud today. After eight years of hate against people like me … Poland is BACK on the path of democracy and the rule of law.”

But Tusk — who took a sharply anti-migrant stance during the campaign — would also need to manage a host of social conservative politicians within his core alliance. It remains unclear how much change he could bring to Poland and how fast.

The outcome is being especially watched in Washington, Brussels, Kyiv and Moscow, where Poland is seen as central to the West’s response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Poland led Europe’s backing of Kyiv, criticizing attempts at dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin and equipping Ukraine with German-made Leopard 2 tanks and Polish MiG-29 fighters.

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But domestic politics have clouded that support. Last month, a dispute over the impact of Ukrainian grain exports on Polish farmers escalated to the point where Morawiecki, the prime minister, announced an end to Polish arms shipments. Tusk, meanwhile, has promised unyielding backing for Ukraine.

“There is no logic, apart from increasingly dangerous and disturbing behavior, in the actions of President Duda, Prime Minister Morawiecki, Chairman Kaczynski, when it comes to Ukraine,” Tusk told reporters last month.

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[1] Url: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/10/16/poland-elections-2023-donald-tusk/

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