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September shattered global heat record — and by a record margin [1]
['Scott Dance']
Date: 2023-10-03
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Early analyses show global warmth surged far above previous records in September — even further than what scientists said seemed like astonishing increases in July and August. The planet’s average temperature shattered the previous September record by more than half a degree Celsius (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit), which is the largest monthly margin ever observed.
Temperatures around the world last month were at levels closer to normal for July according to separate data analyses by European and Japanese climate scientists.
September’s average temperature was about 0.88 degrees Celsius (1.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above 1991-2020 levels — or about 1.7 degrees Celsius (3.2 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal from before industrialization and the widespread use of fossil fuels.
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Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather called the September warming “absolutely gobsmackingly bananas.”
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“We’ve never seen a record smashed by anything close to this margin,” Hausfather, climate lead for the payment company Stripe, said in an email.
ERA5 September 2023 monthly data are out.
I'm still struggling to comprehend how a single year can jump so much compared to previous years.
Just by adding the latest data point, the linear warming trend since 1979 increased by 10%. pic.twitter.com/AnNAbyUQwY — Mika Rantanen (@mikarantane) October 3, 2023
The estimates come from climate models in which scientists use data on temperatures around the world to extrapolate average global warmth. Such analyses have become a reliable complement to assessments that NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration conduct each month, but with more lag time for data review and processing.
Temperature data derived from weather satellites also showed it was the warmest September on record, by far.
Scientists say the extreme warmth is the latest sign of both human-caused climate change and of the climate pattern El Niño, which appeared in June and is approaching expected peak strength this winter. Climate forecasts suggest it will be a “strong” El Niño, and perhaps one of the strongest ever observed.
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El Niño is known to increase global temperatures by a few tenths of a degree Celsius, on top of global warming as a result of the greenhouse effect and the burning of fossil fuels. Warmer-than-normal Pacific Ocean waters mark the presence of El Niño, as wind patterns over the tropics allow warmth stored in deeper levels of the ocean to come to the surface and be released into the atmosphere.
The planet is markedly hotter this year than it was when the last major El Niño hit in 2015 and 2016. It’s not just the Pacific that is anomalously warm — marine heat waves developed around the world this summer. And global air temperatures hit records the past two months in a row.
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[1] Url:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/10/03/september-global-temperature-record-climate/
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