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Record warmth in central states spreading into Northeast, New England [1]

['Matthew Cappucci', 'Dan Stillman']

Date: 2023-10-02

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It’s feeling like August, the sequel, over parts of the Great Plains and the Upper Midwest, where an enduring reprieve from summertime heat has yet to arrive. Temperatures some 25 degrees or more above average have been common across the north-central United States, in some cases setting October records well above 90 degrees.

Over the weekend, highs reached the 90s in at least 15 states from Arizona to Minnesota and approached the triple digits as far north as Iowa. Water temperatures have been high as well, up to 70 degrees Fahrenheit in Lake Erie, its warmest October reading on record. Abnormally hot weather will persist for another day or two east of the Rocky Mountains before cooler weather moves in.

Temperatures hit the low to mid-90s in Nebraska, the Dakotas and portions of the Corn Belt on Monday, with 80s all the way to the shores of the Great Lakes. The heat was expected to spread into the Northeast and New England on Tuesday and Wednesday but come to an end farther west as storms, some severe, blow through the Plains.

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Europe also faces abnormally hot weather, which set monthly records on the Iberian Peninsula on Sunday. Montoro, Spain, posted a high of 100.8 degrees, a nationwide October record. Portugal, Morocco and France also experienced record temperatures in the mid-90s to low 100s.

The blazing start to October in the Northern Hemisphere follows what was almost certainly the warmest September on record for the planet by a large margin.

Where records have fallen so far

An exceptional heat wave in spreading in US Plains with temperatures exceeding 95F far North,even 99F in Iowa/Nebraska border.

Dozens stations are at record levels and by tomorrow October 1st and following days,monthly records will fall in a large scale

Historic October heat wave pic.twitter.com/4jRNzK2jIg — Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) September 30, 2023

A number of records have already been toppled in the central states, the most notable being in Minnesota. In Minneapolis, the high hit 92 degrees on Sunday, compared with an average high of 66 degrees. In fact, Minneapolis had not previously logged a reading over 90 degrees in October in more than 150 years of observation.

Elsewhere in Minnesota on Sunday, St. Cloud reached 91 degrees, surpassing its October record of 90. And in Appleton and Madison, the mercury hit 97 degrees, although neither Minnesota city maintains long-running climate data.

The Twin Cities and St. Cloud both broke the record high for October 1st as well as the warmest temperature recorded in October today. In addition, these records were tied at Eau Claire. #mnwx #wiwx pic.twitter.com/lqRx3TRg22 — NWS Twin Cities (@NWSTwinCities) October 1, 2023

To the east in Wisconsin, Eau Claire tied its October record high of 89 degrees.

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In Iowa, Spencer hit 95 degrees Sunday, beating the monthly record of 93 set in 1997.

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More records fell Monday, when the hottest weather compared with normal was seen from the eastern Dakotas and eastern Nebraska to Michigan. Several daily temperature records were tied or broken:

In South Dakota, Sioux Falls reached 93 degrees, breaking the record of 92 degrees.

In Wisconsin, La Crosse reached 87 degrees, breaking the record of 86 degrees. Green Bay reached 87 degrees, breaking the record of 84 degrees. Marquette tied its daily and monthly record high of 87 degrees.

In Minnesota, International Falls tied its record of 87 degrees, and in North Dakota, Fargo tied its record high of 90 degrees.

In Michigan, 83 degrees in Sault Ste. Marie was the highest on record for October.

A number of records also were set Monday for warm nighttime lows.

More records in jeopardy Tuesday and Wednesday

On Tuesday, the heat was expanding from the Upper Midwest to the Northeast. Highs in the 90s will remain common across the Mid-South and Gulf Coast, but records aren’t expected. Here are some of the places were records will be threatened, however:

In Minnesota, Duluth should hit a high near 80 degrees, beating the record of 77.

In Wisconsin, Madison should hit a high near 86 degrees, compared with the record high of 85.

In the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, Sault Ste. Marie is projected reach near 83 degrees, compared with a record high of 77.

In New York, conditions in Buffalo, Binghamton and Albany could threaten record highs in the mid-80s.

In Pennsylvania, Allentown and Wilkes-Barre may tie or break records at 83 and 84 degrees, respectively.

Burlington, Vt., could come close to its record high of 82.

In Maine, Portland is forecast to climb to near its record high of 80 degrees. And Bangor, whose record high is 77 degrees, probably will spike to near 82.

By Wednesday, as cooler air starts to push into the western Great Lakes, the most anomalous warmth will stretch from Michigan to Vermont, where several records could be set:

In Michigan, Lansing is forecast to be near a record high in the mid-80s.

In New York, Buffalo could reach or surpass its record of 87. Binghamton is forecast to hit the low 80s, compared with a record of 78.

Burlington, Vt., probably will peak near 83 degrees; the record is 82.

The weather pattern behind the heat and when it will break down

The hot weather over the central states is the result of a sprawling ridge of high pressure or heat dome stuck over the region. It has been flanked by a pair of low-pressure systems — one hovering over the Pacific Northwest and the other lurking off the Northeast coast — that have brought cool, stormy weather to those areas. The overarching weather pattern is known as an “omega block” because the serpentine jet stream traces the shape of the Greek letter omega between these systems.

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Such patterns can linger for several days but eventually break down, as will this one as a strong cold front blasts across the northern and central United States, shoving the heat dome eastward.

The front is likely to kick up strong to severe thunderstorms across the Plains from Texas to Nebraska on Tuesday. Damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes will be possible.

7:38am CDT #SPC Day1 Outlook Enhanced Risk: this afternoon into early tonight from western/central KS into south central NE https://t.co/TgJgC6cQZw pic.twitter.com/46PMcHdilf — NWS Storm Prediction Center (@NWSSPC) October 3, 2023

The front triggering the storms will reach the Midwest on Wednesday, the area just west of the Appalachians on Thursday and the East Coast on Friday. The showers and storms along the front will lose some punch as the front heads east, but it will still usher in cooler air — much more like autumn — for most areas east of the Rockies by the weekend.

Jason Samenow contributed to this report.

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[1] Url: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/10/02/october-record-heat-central-us/

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