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Cross-Tabs: July 2023 Times/Siena Poll of the 2024 Race and National Issues [1]

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Date: 2023-08-01

View the survey’s topline results among all voters and cross-tabs among the likely Republican primary electorate.

The Siena College Research Institute will guarantee your anonymity, [an-a-nim-a-tee] however: If you would be open to commenting on the issues in this survey, would you like to be contacted by a reporter?

Who did you vote for in the 2020 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, or did you not vote?

(If Protestant, Christian, Mormon, Greek/Russian Orthodox or some other religion) Do you consider yourself an evangelical or born-again Christian?

Do you consider yourself Catholic, Protestant, Mormon, Jewish, Muslim, some other religion, or do you have no religious affiliation?

Which of the following general income categories is your total household income before taxes?

Do you consider yourself politically liberal, moderate or conservative? [FOLLOW UP: (If liberal or conservative) Is that very or somewhat?]

Now just a few questions for demographic purposes ... Are you of Hispanic origin or descent, such as Mexican, Dominican, Puerto Rican, Cuban, or some other Spanish background?

Our problems are bad, but America is not in danger of failing as a nation anytime soon.

Our problems are so bad that America is in danger of failing as a nation.

(If country is headed in the wrong direction) In a previous question you said you thought things in the U.S. were headed in the wrong direction. Which statement comes closer to your view, even if neither is exactly right?

He went so far that he threatened American democracy

He was just exercising his right to contest the election

(SPLIT B) What comes closer to your view about Donald Trump's actions after the 2020 election?

A comprehensive immigration reform bill that provides a pathway to citizenship for all undocumented immigrants currently living in the United States

For each of the following items, tell me whether you support or oppose the policy.

Do you think abortion should be always legal, mostly legal, mostly illegal or always illegal?

(SPLIT B) (If not serious crimes) Regardless of whether you think Donald Trump committed serious federal crimes, do you think that Donald Trump did something wrong in his handling of classified documents, or do you think Donald Trump did not do anything wrong?

(SPLIT B) Thinking about the investigations into Donald Trump, do you think that Donald Trump has or has not committed any serious federal crimes?

(Asked of Democratic primary voters) I know she isn't running for president, but how would you feel if Kamala Harris were the Democratic nominee for president?

(Asked of Democratic primary voters) What comes closest to how you would feel if Joe Biden were the Democratic nominee for president?

(Asked of Democratic primary voters) (If wants someone other than Biden) In a few words, what's the MOST important reason you would prefer someone other than Joe Biden to be the Democratic Party's 2024 presidential nominee?

(Asked of Democratic primary voters) Regardless of who you prefer in the Democratic primary, do you think the Democratic Party should renominate Joe Biden as the party's candidate for president in 2024, or do you think the party should nominate a different candidate for president in 2024?

(Asked of Democratic primary voters) If the election for Democratic nominee for president were held today, which candidate would you be most likely to vote for?

What is the highest educational level that you have completed?

(If Republican primary voter) Thinking ahead to the Republican primary election, are you almost certain that you will vote, very likely to vote, somewhat likely to vote, not very likely to vote or not at all likely to vote?

I know it's a very long way away, but in the 2024 presidential primaries and caucuses, do you think you will vote in the Republican primary or the Democratic primary, or are you unlikely to vote in a presidential primary or caucus?

(If independent, another party, or don't know on partisanship) And as of today, do you lean more to:

Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or a member of another party?

[VOL] Not going to vote/wouldn't vote if those were the choices

If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:

(SPLIT A) Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

(SPLIT A) Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Mike Pence.

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Joe Biden.

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Ron DeSantis [Duh-SAN-Tis].

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump.

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president? FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?

Do you think the United States is on the right track, or is it headed in the wrong direction?

Methodology

The New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,329 registered voters nationwide, including an oversample of 818 registered Republican voters, was conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones from July 23-27, 2023. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.67 percentage points for all registered voters and plus or minus 3.96 percentage points for the likely Republican primary electorate.

Sample

The survey is a response-rate-adjusted stratified sample of registered voters on the L2 voter file. The sample was selected by The New York Times in multiple steps to account for the oversample of registered Republican voters, differential telephone coverage, nonresponse and significant variation in the productivity of telephone numbers by state.

First, the voter file was split by whether the registrant was classified as Republican or not a Republican; sample selection for the Republican and non-Republican samples was performed separately. The definition of a Republican registrant varied by state, depending on the availability of data on partisanship on the voter file. Party registration was used in states with party registration. In states without party registration, participation in recent partisan primaries was used to classify voters. In states without party registration or partisan primary vote history, party classification was based on a model of vote choice in prior Times/Siena polls.

Second, records were selected by state. To adjust for noncoverage bias, the L2 voter file was stratified by statehouse district, party, race, gender, marital status, household size, turnout history, age and home ownership. The proportion of registrants with a telephone number and the mean expected response rate, based on prior Times/Siena polls, were calculated for each stratum. The initial selection weight was equal to the reciprocal of a stratum’s mean telephone coverage and modeled response rate. For respondents with multiple telephone numbers on the L2 file, the number with the highest modeled response rate was selected.

Third, state records were selected for the national sample. The number of records selected by state was equal to the reciprocal of the mean expected response rate of the state’s records, multiplied by the state’s share of registered Republican or non-Republican voters nationwide, divided by the national sum of the weights.

Fielding

The Republican and non-Republican samples were stratified by party, race and region and fielded by the Siena College Research Institute, with additional field work by ReconMR, the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida and the Institute of Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College. Interviewers asked for the person named on the voter file and ended the interview if the intended respondent was not available. Overall, 77 percent of respondents were reached on a cellular telephone.

The instrument was translated into Spanish by ReconMR, and Spanish-speaking interviewers were assigned to the modeled Hispanic sample. Bilingual interviewers began the interview in English and were instructed to follow the lead of the respondent in determining whether to conduct the survey in English or Spanish. Monolingual Spanish-speaking respondents, in either the Hispanic or non-Hispanic samples, who were initially contacted by English-speaking interviewers were recontacted by Spanish-speaking interviewers. Overall, 14 percent of interviews among self-reported Hispanics were conducted in Spanish, including 9 percent of the registered Republican sample and 19 percent of non-Republicans.

Weighting — registered voters

The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps to account for the oversample of Republican voters.

First, the Republican and non-Republican samples were adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.

Second, the Republican and non-Republican samples were weighted separately to match voter file-based parameters for the characteristics of Republican and non-Republican voters. The Republican and non-Republican samples were also weighted to match targets for the self-reported educational attainment of Republican and non-Republican voters, based on previous Times/Siena polls.

The following targets were used to weight the Republican and non-Republican samples:

• Party, among non-Republican voters (aforementioned partisan classifications)

• Age (Self-reported age, or voter file age if the respondent refuses)

• Gender (L2 data)

• Race or ethnicity (L2 model)

• Education (four categories of self-reported education, weighted to match NYT-based targets derived from Times/Siena polls, census data and the L2 voter file)

• Marital status (L2 model)

• Home ownership (L2 model)

• Metropolitan area (2013 National Center for Health Statistics Urban-Rural Classification Scheme for Counties)

• Region (Census Bureau definition, except Maryland, Delaware and Washington, D.C., reclassified as Northeast)

• Turnout history (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• Vote method in the 2020 elections (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• Census block group density (A.C.S. 5-Year Census Block Group data)

• Home value (L2 data), among Republican registrants.

Finally, the two samples were combined and adjusted to account for the oversample of Republicans.

Weighting — likely Republican primary electorate

The survey was separately weighted in multiple steps to match targets for the composition of the likely Republican primary electorate and to account for the self-reported turnout intention of respondents.

First, the Republican and non-Republican samples were adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.

Second, the first-stage weight was adjusted to account for the probability that a registrant would participate in the 2024 Republican primary, based on a model of turnout in contested Republican primaries. Separate models were fit for closed, semi-closed and open primaries. The probability that ineligible registrants — like a registered Democrat in a closed primary state — would participate in the 2024 primary was based on an analysis of Times/Siena polling from October 2019 and L2 voter file data, which found that 2 percent of ineligible registrants ultimately participated in the 2020 Democratic primary, including 10 percent of Republican registrants who identified as a Democrat at the time of the poll.

Third, the Republican and non-Republican samples were weighted separately to match targets for the composition of the likely Republican electorate. The targets for the composition of the likely electorate were derived by aggregating the individual-level turnout estimates described in the previous step for registrants on the L2 voter file. The categories used in weighting were the same as those previously mentioned for registered voters.

Fourth, potential Republican primary voters were assigned a probability of voting based on their self-reported intention to vote. Voters were considered potential Republican primary voters if one of three conditions were met:

• They identified as Republican or leaned Republican on two questions about party identification.

• They were registered as a Republican in a closed or semi-closed primary state where they were only eligible to participate in the Republican primary.

• They said they would "probably" vote in the Republican primary on a question asking if they were likely to vote in the Republican primary or the Democratic primary, or probably wouldn't vote in a primary.

If a voter did not meet any of these criteria, they were assigned zero probability of voting in the Republican primary. If they met at least one of these criteria, they received a probability of voting based on the relationship between self-reported turnout intention and validated vote in a post-election analysis of Times/Siena data from the 2018 and 2022 midterm elections. Potential Republican primary voters who said they were "unlikely" to vote or likelier to vote in the Democratic primary were assigned a probability of voting based on the Times/Siena polling conducted in October 2019.

Fifth, the initial likely voter weight was adjusted to incorporate self-reported vote intention. The final probability that a registrant would participate in the Republican primary was two-thirds based on their ex ante modeled turnout score and one-third based on their self-reported intention, based on prior Times/Siena polls, including a penalty to account for the tendency of survey respondents to turn out at higher rates than non-respondents. The final likely electorate weight was equal to the modeled electorate rake weight, multiplied by the final turnout probability and divided by the ex ante modeled turnout probability.

Finally, the two samples were combined and adjusted to account for the oversample of Republicans.

The margin of error accounts for the survey’s design effect, a measure of the loss of statistical power due to survey design and weighting. The design effect for the full sample of registered voters is 1.86, with design effects of 1.26 and 1.28 for the two separately weighted samples of Republicans and non-Republicans, respectively. The design effect for the likely Republican electorate is 1.52, which includes the added variance due to incorporating the probability that a respondent will participate in the Republican primary.

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[1] Url: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/08/01/us/elections/times-siena-poll-registered-voters-crosstabs.html

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