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The massive central U.S. heat wave is expanding and could set hundreds of records [1]

['Ian Livingston']

Date: 2023-08-22

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Nearly 150 million people are under heat alerts Tuesday and through the midweek, as the Midwest’s most significant heat wave in years heads toward its peak and the South continues to roast as it has much of the summer. Want to know how your actions can help make a difference for our planet? Sign up for the Climate Coach newsletter, in your inbox every Tuesday and Thursday. ArrowRight Excessive heat warnings are in effect for portions of 16 states from Minnesota to Louisiana. Cities under warning include Minneapolis, Omaha, Wichita, Oklahoma City, Dallas, Little Rock, St. Louis and Chicago, among many others. Heat indexes — what the temperature feels like when air temperature is combined with relative humidity — in these areas are expected to rise as high as 110 or 120 degrees, with some locations approaching a 130-degree heat index Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon.

“As we enter day 3 of this dangerous heat wave, the chance for heat related illness will only increase, especially for vulnerable populations,” wrote the Weather Service in St. Louis early Tuesday.

Hundreds of additional record highs and record warm lows are anticipated through the weekend. Considerable warmth in the overnights compounds the heat risks.

“Take the heat seriously and avoid extended time outdoors,” wrote the Weather Prediction Center. Conditions can “be potentially deadly to anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration.”

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Through Thursday, record highs are expected to cover the Midwest into the Ohio Valley and the South. By the weekend, record heat should head toward the Gulf Coast and return to the Desert Southwest.

Where heat is focused

This blast of heat is packing high humidity. Another day of heat indexes up to 130 or so is likely, on the heels of Monday’s high. In Lawrence, Kan., the heat index climbed to 134 during the afternoon, following similar conditions on Sunday. Ottawa, Kan., also felt a heat index of 130 degrees Monday, in addition to a number of locations topping 120.

It’s not just the obscene heat index values that are straining these regions. Tuesday’s high temperatures are probably in the 100s over most of the Plains except the far north, and extend into Minnesota, Iowa and southward across the South. That footprint should expand on Wednesday, with 100-degree temperatures shifting eastward to threaten the Chicago metro area and other spots.

Some of the forecast highs for Tuesday and Wednesday:

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Baton Rouge: 101 and 105 degrees

Dallas: 104 and 104 degrees

Des Moines: 98 and 101 degrees

Jackson, Miss.: 103 and 105 degrees

Minneapolis: 100 and 99 degrees

Topeka, Kan.: 103 and 104 degrees

In and around Chicago, an excessive heat warning began Tuesday. High temperatures Tuesday and Thursday are forecast to reach the upper 90s to around 100 there, with a heat index of 110 or greater. The combination of heat and humidity may rise to “exceedingly rare” values for the area, according to the local Weather Service office.

Many of these areas will suffer this heat through at least Thursday (north) and Friday (central).

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“The Excessive Heat Warning currently exists through Thursday, though there is increasing confidence in additional heat headlines being needed for Friday,” wrote the Weather Service in Springfield, Mo.

More records set

Several additional records fell Monday, from the front range of the Rockies through the central Plains and southward into Texas then east into Louisiana and Mississippi.

Cities that set record highs Monday include Wichita and Abilene, Tex., at 106, Corpus Christi, Tex., with 100, Lake Charles, La., at 102 and Denver, where it hit 99 degrees. Many locations also reached daily records, or close, for warm lows. In San Antonio, it only got down to 82 on Monday night, while St. Louis slipped to 81, and Denver to 72.

Salina in north-central Kansas saw five days at or above 100 degrees through Monday, including 113 on Saturday. Several more sweltering days are likely on the way, and the streak should end up in the top-10 longest on record there.

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Many locations have endured more than a dozen record highs this month alone. Del Rio, Tex., has recorded 17 of them, Austin is up to 16, New Orleans has had 15, and Brownsville, Tex., counts 12. Similarly, record warm lows have been extensive this month. Del Rio has recorded 19; Baton Rouge, 15; Houston, 13; and Orlando, 12.

There have been more than 1,600 record highs at long-period weather stations across the United States in August so far. Over the past week, the average per day is close to 100.

Among the many records yet to be set, more maximums for any day in any month are possible, especially in the northern Gulf Coast region of Louisiana, Mississippi and surrounding areas.

And while it is true that hotter temperatures scorched the Plains during the Dust Bowl (1930-1939), land mismanagement and deep drought back then added to the low-level heat. When comparing the strength of the upper-level high-pressure area, the current one beats the likes of those such as in August 1936.

Heat still grips much of Northern Hemisphere

Europe also continues to bake.

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France’s southern half is either in Code Orange or Code Red for heat. As in the United States, significant warmth has persisted through the nights. A low of 30.1 degrees Celsius (86.2 degrees Fahrenheit) was just shy of the warmest on record for France, according to weather historian Thierry Goose.

Numerous records — including some all-time highs — have been recorded in Spain and France over recent days. In Switzerland, a weather balloon measured above-freezing temperatures to about three miles aloft, perhaps the highest on record in that country.

Other areas of debilitating heat persist in Japan and mainland Asia, as they have for months.

Back in the United States: While record-high temperatures wane to the north, they will probably continue around New Orleans and spring back up in the West late weekend into next week. The most extreme heat looks likely to set up shop out West and in western Canada into early September, before potentially working its way back east again.

For many, fall can’t come soon enough.

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[1] Url: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/08/22/heat-wave-extreme-temperatures-midwest-plains-south/

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