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Human-induced climate change increased drought severity in Horn of Africa – World Weather Attribution [1]

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Date: 2023-08

Since October 2020 large parts of Eastern Africa have been experiencing extended dry conditions punctuated by short intense rainfall events that often led to flash floods.

The below-average rainfall in the October-December (OND) 2022 season “short rains” was the fifth consecutive failed season since OND 2020, including the below-average March-May (MAM) “long rains” in 2021 and 2022. The resulting drought was reported to be the worst in 40 years (WMO, 2022, FAO 2022).

The drought has led to substantial harvest failure, poor pasture conditions, livestock losses, decreased surface water availability and human conflicts, leaving 4.35 million people in need of humanitarian assistance (NDMA, 2022). At least 180,000 refugees from Somalia and South Sudan crossed into the drought-stricken areas of Kenya and Ethiopia (UNHCR).

By January 2023, close to 9,210 MT of food commodities had been distributed and USD 7.29 million cash-based transfers had been made (OCHA, 2023). Despite some reported rains in parts of Kenya by the end of March 2023 (KMD, 2023), the drought conditions are not likely to recover quickly enough to see improvements in food security before mid-2023.

Scientists from Kenya, Mozambique, South Africa, the United States of America, the Netherlands, Germany and the United Kingdom collaborated to assess to what extent human-induced climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of the low rainfall that led to drought, as well as the increase in evaporation due to climate change, exacerbating drought severity.

Figure 1: Left: Drought classifications based on Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI; US Drought Monitor, 2023), reflecting the magnitudes of precipitation deficit from Jan 2021-Dec 2022 relative to the 1980-2010 climatology in the CPC dataset. Right: Drought classifications based on Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), reflecting the magnitudes of precipitation deficit from Jan 2021-Dec 2022 relative to the 1980-2010 climatology in the CPC dataset. The bold black outline highlights the study region.

Figure 2: Joint distribution of 24-month precip and PET with corresponding SPEI drought classification. The solid contours indicate return periods under the joint distribution in the current climate, while the dashed contours indicate the same return periods in a 1.2°C cooler climate. The shaded contours represent different levels of drought severity. The magenta point indicates the 2022 drought event in the current climate, with a joint return period of 26 years (uncertainty: 23-37 years), while the turquoise point shows an event of the equivalent severity in a 1.2°C cooler climate.

Main findings

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[1] Url: https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/human-induced-climate-change-increased-drought-severity-in-southern-horn-of-africa/

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