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2010-2019: A landmark decade of U.S. billion-dollar weather and climate disasters [1]

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Date: 2023-06

NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) tracks U.S. weather and climate events that have great economic and societal impacts (www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions). Since 1980, the U.S. has sustained 258* weather and climate disasters where the overall damage costs reached or exceeded $1 billion (including adjustments based on the Consumer Price Index, as of January 2020). The cumulative cost for these 258 events exceeds $1.75 trillion.

During 2019, the U.S. experienced a very active year of weather and climate disasters. In total, the U.S. was impacted by 14 separate billion-dollar disasters including: 3 major inland floods, 8 severe storms, 2 tropical cyclones (Dorian and Imelda), and 1 wildfire event. 2019 also marks the fifth consecutive year (2015-19) in which 10 or more separate billion-dollar disaster events have impacted the U.S.

The general location of the 14 weather and climate disasters to have caused at least one billion dollars in direct damages during 2019. Map by NOAA NCEI.

Over the last several years costly disasters have been particularly destructive. The historic 2019 U.S. inland flooding across many Central states follows the historic 2018 and 2017 Atlantic hurricane and Western wildfire seasons, which set new damage cost records. These disasters have impacted dozens of Eastern, Central, and Western states, in addition to Caribbean territories (i.e., Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands).

The number and cost of disasters are increasing over time due to a combination of increased exposure (i.e., values at risk of possible loss), vulnerability (i.e., how much damage does the intensity (wind speed, flood depth) at a location cause) and that climate change is increasing the frequency of some types of extremes that lead to billion-dollar disasters (NCA 2018, Chapter 2).

Number of events

The 14 separate U.S. billion-dollar disasters in 2019 represent the fourth highest total number of events (tied with 2018), following the years 2017 (16), 2011 (16) and 2016 (15). The most recent years of 2019, 2018 and 2017 have each produced more than a dozen billion-dollar disasters to impact the United States—totaling 44 events. This makes a 3-year average of 14.6 billion-dollar disaster events, well above the inflation-adjusted average of 6.5 events per year (1980-2019).

On a slightly longer timeframe, the U.S. has experienced 69 separate billion-dollar disaster events over the last 5 years (2015-2019), an inflation-adjusted average of 13.8 events per year. Over the last 40 years (1980-2019), the years with 10 or more separate billion-dollar disaster events include 1998, 2008, 2011-2012, and 2015-2019.

This graphic above shows the month-by-month accumulation of billion dollar disasters for each year on record. The value for a given year for a given month shows the total number of billion-dollar events that had occurred by that month in a given year. 2019 (thick red line) had the 4th highest total number of events (tied with 2018, green), following the years 2017 (purple), 2011 (dark blue) and 2016 (orange). Other years appear in gray. Note that there is considerable overlap, and some years' traces are obscured.

Cost comparisons

The year 2019 experienced a slightly above average year of costs ($45.0 billion), as noted below in the data plot by the black line. In 2019, the U.S. experienced historically persistent and destructive flooding across the Missouri, Arkansas, and Mississippi River basins. The combined cost of the Missouri, Arkansas, and Mississippi River flooding ($20.0 billion) was nearly half the total cost for all 14 of the billion-dollar disasters. The costliest U.S. disaster years on record are 2017 ($318.9 billion), 2005 ($226.1 billion), and 2012 ($130.9 billion) when all years are inflation-adjusted to January 2020 dollars. The 40-year annual cost average for billion-dollar disasters is $43.9 billion (CPI-adjusted), as noted by the black line in the following chart.

This graphic depicts the cumulative estimated cost of billion dollar weather and climate disasters on a monthly basis for each year since 1980. Driven by enormous losses from hurricanes, 2017 (purple line) and 2005 (dark blue line) stand head and shoulders above the rest of the pack in terms of total cost.

In broader context, the total cost of U.S. billion-dollar disasters over the last 5 years (2015-2019) exceeds $525 billion, with a 5-year annual cost average of $106.3 billion (CPI-adjusted), both of which are records. The U.S. billion-dollar disaster damage costs over the last decade (2010-2019) were also historically large, exceeding $800 billion from 119 separate billion-dollar events. Moreover, the losses over the most recent 15 years (2005-2019) are $1.16 trillion in damage from 156 separate billion-dollar disaster events.

(bars) The number (left vertical axis), type (colors), and annual cost (right vertical axis) of U.S. billion-dollar disasters from 1980-2019. (lines) Running annual cost (purple line), along with the 95% confidence interval (purple shading), and 5-year average costs (black line).The bars are much taller in recent years, indicating that the number and costs of disasters are increasing. Inland flooding (light orange bars) and severe storms (orange bars) are making in increasingly large contribution to the number of U.S. billion-dollar disasters. NOAA Climate.gov image, based on NCEI data.

(As part of the release of the 2019 U.S. billion-dollar disaster report, the NCEI website offers interactive, state-level disaster frequency and cost charts for the last 40-years, 1980-2019. This includes all 50 states, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. These new, high resolution charts can also be downloaded.)

2010-2019: an unprecedented decade of billion-dollar disasters

After adjusting for inflation, the U.S. experienced more than twice the number of billion-dollar disasters during the 2010s than the 2000s decade: 119 versus 59. Indeed, increased urbanization and material exposure to extreme event impacts is a large driver of the increasing losses, even after taking into account the rising cost of inflation, which we address.

Number of billion-dollar disasters (average per year) Associated Costs (average per year) Associated Fatalities (average per year) 1980s (1980-89) 28 (2.8) $127.7B ($12.8B) 2,808 (281) 1990s (1990-99) 52 (5.2) $269.6B ($27.0B) 2,173 (217) 2000s (2000-09) 59 (5.9) $510.3B ($51.0B) 3,051 (305) 2010s (2010-19) 119 (11.9) $802.0B ($80.2B) 5,212 (521) Last 5 years (2015-19) 69 (13.8) $531.7B ($106.3B) 3,862 (772) Last 3 years (2017-19) 44 (14.7) $456.7B ($152.2B) 3,569 (1,190) Overall (1980-2019) 258 (6.5) $1.754.6B ($43.9B) 13,249 (331)

Four of the five most costly U.S. billion-dollar disasters occurred in the 2010s (i.e., Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Maria, and Sandy). In addition, the two most destructive and costly wildfire seasons in U.S. history have taken place over the last three years, with losses exceeding $40 billion, with much of this damage in California.

Worrisome trends

Keep in mind that these estimates do not reflect the total cost of U.S. weather and climate disasters, only those associated with events in excess of $1 billion in damages. However, these extreme events do account for the majority (>80%) of the damage from all recorded U.S. weather and climate events (NCEI; Munich Re). These billion-dollar disaster events are becoming an increasingly larger percentage of the cumulative damage from the full distribution of weather-related events at all scales and loss levels.

Clearly, the historically large U.S. losses from hurricanes and wildfires over the last few years have further skewed the total distribution of extreme weather costs. This increase reflects a combination of increased exposure, vulnerability and the fact the climate change is playing an increasing role in the frequency of some types of extremes that lead to billion-dollar disasters.

1980-2000 …(~75% of full distribution of all disaster-related costs)

…(~75% of full distribution of all disaster-related costs) 1980-2010 …(~80% of full distribution)

…(~80% of full distribution) 1980-2019 …(~85% of full distribution): $1.75 trillion of $2.05 trillion in US weather and climate events costs since 1980

…(~85% of full distribution):

Historic U.S. billion-dollar disasters of 2019

Among the many weather and climate-related disasters to affect the U.S. in 2019, the following caused the most damaging impacts and broke numerous records.

Missouri River and North Central Flooding (March 2019): $10.8 billion, 3 deaths

Historic Midwest flooding inundated millions of acres of agriculture, numerous cities and towns, and caused widespread damage to roads, bridges, levees, and dams. The states most affected were Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, South Dakota, Minnesota, North Dakota, Wisconsin and Michigan. This flood was triggered by a powerful storm with heavy precipitation that intensified snow melt and flooding. Of note, the Offutt Air Force Base in Nebraska was also severely flooded—the third U.S. military base to be damaged by a billion-dollar disaster event over a 6-month period (Sept 2018-Feb 2019). This historic flooding was one of the costliest U.S. inland flooding events on record.

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[1] Url: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/beyond-data/2010-2019-landmark-decade-us-billion-dollar-weather-and-climate

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