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The West Tried to Isolate Russia. It Didn’t Work. [1]

['Josh Holder', 'Lauren Leatherby', 'Anton Troianovski', 'Weiyi Cai']

Date: 2023-02-23

After Russia invaded Ukraine, the West formed what looked like an overwhelming global coalition: 141 countries supported a United Nations measure demanding that Russia unconditionally withdraw.

Zambia Sierra Leone Albania Serbia Ghana Montenegro Libya Kenya Mexico Nigeria Argentina Peru “The world is with us” Costa Rica Australia Rwanda Hungary Egypt Germany Brazil Comoros Niger France Haiti Congo Colombia Western allies Ukraine Gabon Spain U.S. Poland Chile Bulgaria Papua New Guinea U.K. Estonia “Unprecedented global unity” Turkey Italy Canada Romania Cambodia Malaysia Qatar Thailand Indonesia Yemen Kuwait Japan U.A.E. Myanmar South Korea Nepal Philippines Singapore Afghanistan Saudi Arabia Israel Zambia Sierra Leone Ghana Libya Serbia Kenya Mexico Costa Rica Nigeria Peru “The world is with us” Argentina Australia Rwanda Hungary Egypt Germany Brazil Niger France Congo Western allies Ukraine Colombia Gabon Spain U.S. Poland Chile Bulgaria “Unprecedented global unity” U.K. Estonia Italy Canada Romania Turkey Kuwait Indonesia Thailand Malaysia Yemen Myanmar South Korea Japan Nepal U.A.E. Philippines Singapore Saudi Arabia Qatar Israel Cambodia Serbia Zambia Montenegro Sierra Leone Ghana Libya Kenya Argentina Brazil “The world is with us” Nigeria Western allies Mexico Australia Egypt Germany Peru France Colombia Congo Ukraine Haiti Niger U.S. Spain Poland Bulgaria Chile U.K. Estonia Italy “Unprecedented global unity” Canada Turkey Myanmar Singapore Qatar Malaysia Yemen U.A.E. South Korea Indonesia Israel Thailand Japan Saudi Arabia Philippines Afghanistan Cambodia

By contrast, Russia seemed isolated. North Korea was one of only four countries that backed Russia and rejected the measure.

Eritrea “Russian actions are being distorted” North Korea Russia Belarus Syria Eritrea “Russian actions are being distorted” North Korea Russia Belarus Syria

But the West never won over as much of the world as it initially seemed. Another 47 countries abstained or missed the vote, including India and China. Many of those “neutral” nations have since provided crucial economic or diplomatic support for Russia.

Iraq Circles sized by population Algeria Bangladesh India Iran Morocco Laos Pakistan China Vietnam Mozambique Sri Lanka Ethiopia Uzbekistan “We had no choice but to abstain” Uganda Iraq Circles sized by population Algeria Bangladesh India Morocco Iran Laos Pakistan China Vietnam Mozambique Sri Lanka Ethiopia Uzbekistan “We had no choice but to abstain” Uganda

And even some of the nations that initially agreed to denounce Russia see the war as somebody else’s problem — and have since started moving toward a more neutral position.

“Brazil has no interest in handing over munitions” Supported withdrawal Neutral vote “Ukraine is a victim of the crises concocted by the U.S.” Brazil Ukraine Iran Turkey Russia “A policy based on provocations” U.A.E. “Taking sides would only lead to more violence” Supported withdrawal Ukraine U.A.E. Brazil “Taking sides would only lead to more violence” “Brazil has no interest in handing over munitions” Turkey “A policy based on provocations” Neutral vote Iran “Ukraine is a victim of the crises concocted by the U.S.” Russia

A year on, it’s becoming clearer: While the West’s core coalition remains remarkably solid, it never convinced the rest of the world to isolate Russia.

Instead of cleaving in two, the world has fragmented. A vast middle sees Russia’s invasion as, primarily, a European and American problem. Rather than view it as an existential threat, these countries are largely focused on protecting their own interests amid the economic and geopolitical upheaval caused by the invasion.

The landscape recalls the many neutral states during the Cold War. But the world is now even more interconnected. The scale and complexity of global communications, economic ties and security links offer far more opportunities for the West’s rivals to gain leverage.

On Thursday, the U.N. General Assembly endorsed another resolution demanding that Russia withdraw from Ukraine’s territory — but China, South Africa, India and many countries in the global south continued to abstain, underlining their alienation from what they regard as the West’s war.

Here is how Russia is taking advantage.

Getting around sanctions

At first, the West’s economic sanctions seemed like they might undermine Moscow’s ability to sustain the war. A U.S.-led campaign, which included 37 countries, rattled the foundations of Russia’s financial system by freezing its foreign-currency reserves and targeting its main banks.

Austria Greece “The ruble is reduced to rubble” Canada Portugal Netherlands Switzerland Latvia Ireland United States Japan Denmark Slovenia Hungary France Lithuania Russia Poland U.K. New Zealand Finland Germany Spain Italy Norway Czech Republic Australia Austria “The ruble is reduced to rubble” Greece Canada Portugal Netherlands Switzerland Latvia Ireland U.S. Japan Denmark Slovenia Hungary France Lithuania Russia Poland U.K. New Zealand Finland Germany Spain Italy Norway Czech Republic Australia “The ruble is reduced to rubble” Austria Greece Canada Portugal Switzerland Latvia Ireland U.S. Denmark Japan Russia U.K. New Zealand Germany Spain Italy Norway Australia France Czech Republic

The sanctions blocked key imports like spare parts for aircraft and semiconductors for electronics. And hundreds of companies voluntarily stopped doing business in Russia, leaving regular Russians without Apple retailers or Netflix subscriptions.

But the sanctions have not been as devastating as the West hoped. A handful of countries have filled the gap, increasing exports to Russia well above prewar levels, according to data collected by Silverado Policy Accelerator, a Washington nonprofit. Other countries’ exports decreased when the war began but have since reversed course.

Supported condemning Russia Abstained or absent from the U.N. vote Against condemning Russia Exporting more cars, machinery and chips Cargo transport tripled Uzbekistan Kazakhstan Armenia Turkey Belarus China Iran Significant increase in exports to Russia after invasion Kyrgyzstan Bolivia Georgia Serbia Colombia Ethiopia Russia Sri Lanka Bosnia Switzerland Small increase in exports to Russia after invasion Ecuador North Macedonia India Indonesia Brazil Costa Rica More imports of Russian oil Exporting more cars, machinery and chips Cargo transport tripled Uzbekistan Kazakhstan Armenia Turkey Belarus China Iran Significant increase in exports to Russia after invasion Kyrgyzstan Bolivia Georgia Serbia Colombia Ethiopia Russia Sri Lanka Small increase in exports to Russia after invasion Bosnia Switzerland Ecuador North Macedonia India Indonesia Brazil Costa Rica More imports of Russian oil Ethiopia Iran Belarus China Turkey Kyrgyzstan Armenia Kazakhstan Georgia Uzbekistan Serbia Significant increase in exports to Russia after invasion Colombia Bolivia Russia Switzerland Small increase in exports to Russia after invasion North Macedonia Sri Lanka Bosnia Ecuador Costa Rica Indonesia Brazil India Source: Analysis of trade data from Silverado Policy Accelerator, using data from Global Trade Tracker; U.N. Comtrade; CEIC Data; national statistics databases. Note: A significant increase includes countries with exports to Russia at least 25 percent higher between Aug. to Nov. 2022 than their averages before the invasion, between Jan. 2019 and Jan. 2022. Other countries had increases of less than 25 percent.

China and Turkey made up most of the export gap on their own.

Chinese passenger vehicles replaced Russia’s past supply from Western manufacturers. China exported more machinery and semiconductors, too. Other goods produced by multinational firms that can no longer be exported directly to Russia are now flowing through post-Soviet states.

Even as Turkey has sold weapons to Ukraine, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has opened up an increased flow of goods to Russia, tearing a hole in the Western dam of sanctions.

“We have always maintained a policy of balance between Ukraine and Russia,” Mr. Erdogan said in September, six months after Turkey voted with the United States to denounce Russia’s invasion.

Altogether, after initially falling post-invasion, trade levels have rebounded because enough countries remain willing to trade with Russia.

Russia’s total imports $10 billion $20 billion Jan. 2019 Feb. 2022 Nov. 2022 Russia invades Ukraine Source: Silverado Policy Accelerator Note: Includes data for 98 countries, which account for the vast majority of pre-invasion exports to Russia.

The sanctions could still be devastating to Russia in the long term. They are already stunting foreign investment and starting to drain the government’s coffers. Restrictions on oil trading have forced Russia to cut production. And reorienting the country’s natural gas pipeline infrastructure toward Asia will take years.

But even though Russia’s economy isn’t thriving, it’s strong enough to keep the war going. The International Monetary Fund projected last month that the Russian economy would grow by 0.3 percent this year, a sharp improvement from its previous estimate that it would contract by 2.3 percent.

Buying weapons and components

The United States and its partners have been dispatching ever more lethal weapons and military equipment directly to Ukraine. And they have attempted to cut off Russia’s own supply of military equipment by imposing export controls that prohibit many companies from selling critical technology to Russia.

The weapons have helped Ukraine surprise the world and hold off Russia’s much larger military. At least 40 countries have provided military aid to Ukraine, either by sending offensive weapons or by providing other forms of military aid.

France Turkey Germany Spain Italy U.S. Japan Poland Austria South Korea U.K. Canada Sent offensive weapons Other forms of military aid Ukraine France Turkey Germany Spain Italy U.S. Poland U.K. Canada Japan South Korea Austria Other forms of military aid Sent offensive weapons Ukraine

But the effort to deprive Russia of military equipment has been less successful. Russia has found help here, too. North Korea has shipped “a significant number” of artillery shells to Russia, the United States has said. Iran has provided Russia with unmanned “kamikaze” drones that Moscow has deployed for attacks against civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.

And other countries, including China, have continued to supply Russia with dual-use goods like microchips that make their way into military equipment.

North Korea Iran Shipped artillery shells Sold hundreds of drones Russia Companies sold microchips and other dual-use goods China North Korea Iran Shipped artillery shells Sold hundreds of drones Russia Companies sold microchips and other dual-use goods China

To be sure, analysts say Russia does appear to be facing a shortage of precision weaponry, like cruise missiles, that require high-tech equipment. And Russian soldiers report a lack of night-vision equipment and surveillance drones on the front line.

Taking advantage of global ambivalence

A lot of world leaders don’t particularly like the idea of one country invading another. But many of them aren’t unhappy to see somebody stand up to the United States, either.

Throughout Africa, Latin America, Asia and the Middle East, many governments with strong official ties to the United States and Europe don’t see the war as a global threat. Instead, they’ve positioned themselves as neutral bystanders or arbiters, preserving as much flexibility as they can.

Supported condemning Russia Abstained or absent from the U.N. vote Against condemning Russia Finland Norway Russia “We do not want to be part of any camp” “Dialogue and peaceful solutions” U.K. Ukraine Canada Ireland North Korea France Pakistan Italy Turkey China U.S. Japan Iran Iraq Morocco Egypt South Korea Mexico India Vietnam Ethiopia Colombia Indonesia Peru Malaysia Brazil “India is on the side of peace” Mozambique “Committed to peace” Australia South Africa New Zealand “Ready to support the peaceful resolution of conflicts” Pakistan “We do not want to be part of any camp” Russia U.K. Ukraine North Korea China Japan U.S. India Indonesia Australia Brazil South Africa “Committed to peace” “Ready to support the peaceful resolution of conflicts” Pakistan “We do not want to be part of any camp” Canada Russia U.K. North Korea Ukraine China U.S. India Brazil Australia Argentina South Africa “Ready to support the peaceful resolution of conflicts”

Reaction to the invasion was mixed in Asia, where more than a third of countries declined to condemn Russia in the initial U.N. vote. While most American allies have fallen in line, Russia has been able to take advantage of trade relationships and friendly public opinion dating to the Cold War.

At the beginning of the invasion, the United States asked India to buy less oil from Russia. Since then, it has softened its stance as India has continually defied alignment with either side. As tensions increase along India’s border with China, experts have said India doesn’t feel it can risk its relationship with Russia — a key source for weapons.

Asia & Middle East Supported condemning Russia Abstained or absent from the U.N. vote Against condemning Russia Mongolia Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Georgia North Korea Kyrgyzstan Pakistan Nepal Turkey China Azerbaijan Syria South Korea Japan Iraq Iran Israel Saudi Arabia Myanmar U.A.E. India Bangladesh Philippines Vietnam Yemen Brunei Thailand “So-called sanctions” Indonesia Maldives Sri Lanka “We will not blindly follow the steps taken by another country” “No country can be controlled by imposing sanctions” Mongolia Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Georgia North Korea Kyrgyzstan Pakistan Nepal Turkey China Azerbaijan Syria Japan Iraq Iran South Korea Israel Saudi Arabia Myanmar U.A.E. India Bangladesh Philippines Vietnam Yemen Brunei Thailand “So-called sanctions” Indonesia Maldives Sri Lanka “No country can be controlled by imposing sanctions” “We will not blindly follow the steps taken by another country” Bangladesh “No country can be controlled by imposing sanctions” Mongolia Kazakhstan Uzbekistan North Korea Georgia Pakistan Nepal Turkey China Syria Iran Japan Saudi Arabia Myanmar India Yemen Maldives Sri Lanka Indonesia “We will not blindly follow the steps taken by another country”

Gulf countries voted alongside the West to condemn Russia, but they have since largely sought to be seen as neutral arbiters.

President Mohammed Bin Zayed of the United Arab Emirates traveled to Russia to meet with President Vladimir V. Putin and said he sought to find a diplomatic solution. He also offered up an Abu Dhabi airfield for the Brittney Griner prisoner exchange.

Dubai, in particular, has become a hub for Russians — a haven for oligarchs and pro-Kremlin elites where Western sanctions cannot reach. And Saudi Arabia has said it must pursue its own interests, even if that causes friction in its longstanding relationship with the U.S.

Nearly half of African countries abstained or were absent from the vote to condemn Russia, suggesting a growing reluctance in many nations to accept an American narrative of right and wrong. Russia has won friends through relentless propaganda and hard power, with a growing number of countries contracting with Russian mercenaries and buying Russian weapons.

In South Africa, ties to Russia go back to Soviet support to end apartheid. Its leaders have seen an opportunity to align more closely with Russia, while filling in trade gaps left by Europe and the United States. But like many other African countries, South Africa appears careful to balance its growing ties with Russia against maintaining a relationship with the West.

Africa Supported condemning Russia Abstained or absent from the U.N. vote Against condemning Russia Morocco Tunisia Libya Algeria Egypt Mauritania Niger Eritrea Mali Senegal Djibouti Chad Cape Verde Sudan Ethiopia Nigeria Sierra Leone Ghana Somalia Liberia Uganda Kenya Africa “does not want to be the breeding ground of a new Cold War” Congo Tanzania “When there is progress with Russia, we benefit” Burundi Angola Zambia Zimbabwe Mauritius Namibia Mozambique Madagascar Botswana “It is a European war” Lesotho South Africa “When there is progress with Russia, we benefit” Morocco Tunisia Libya Algeria Egypt Mauritania Cape Verde Niger Eritrea Mali Senegal Djibouti Chad Sudan Ethiopia Nigeria Sierra Leone Ghana Somalia Liberia Uganda Kenya Congo Africa “does not want to be the breeding ground of a new Cold War” Tanzania Burundi Angola Zambia Mauritius Zimbabwe Namibia Mozambique Madagascar Botswana “It is a European war” Lesotho South Africa Uganda “When there is progress with Russia, we benefit” Morocco Tunisia Libya Algeria Mauritania Egypt Niger Mali Eritrea Chad Djibouti Nigeria Ghana Sudan Ethiopia Senegal Africa “does not want to be the breeding ground of a new Cold War” Somalia Kenya Congo Tanzania Burundi Angola Mauritius Zambia Zimbabwe Mozambique Botswana Namibia “It is a European war” Lesotho South Africa Madagascar

Latin America, with its longstanding relationships with the United States, voted largely alongside its northern neighbor to condemn Russia. But cracks have begun to show more prominently in recent months.

Colombia recently refused a request from the United States to provide weapons to Ukraine. And when visited by Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany last month, President Luis Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil declined to speak in support of Ukraine, saying, “I think the reason for the war between Russia and Ukraine needs to be clearer.”

The Americas Supported condemning Russia Abstained or absent from the U.N. vote Canada “Make no mistake, Russia is not responsible” U.S. Cuba Dominican Rep. Belize Mexico Venezuela Colombia Ecuador Peru “I will not help prolong any war” Brazil Bolivia Paraguay “If one doesn’t want to, two can’t fight” Uruguay Chile Argentina Canada Cuba “Make no mistake, Russia is not responsible” U.S. Dominican Rep. Belize Mexico Venezuela Ecuador Peru Colombia “I will not help prolong any war” Bolivia Paraguay Brazil “If one doesn’t want to, two can’t fight” Chile Argentina

Trying to weaken the core Western coalition

Several dozen countries make up the core group backing Ukraine by providing military assistance or sanctioning Russia.

39 countries imposed sanctions on Russia or provided military assistance to Ukraine Belgium Ireland Finland France Japan Spain Slovakia Australia Bulgaria Italy U.S. Lithuania Turkey Norway Greece South Korea Sweden Latvia Germany Estonia Canada U.K. Hungary Malta Cyprus Switzerland Poland Belgium Ireland France Spain Japan Australia Italy Lithuania U.S. Norway Greece Turkey Germany Canada South Korea U.K. Poland Hungary Malta Cyprus Switzerland

Western unity during the war has proven remarkable, with countries long seen as relatively friendly toward Russia — like Germany, France and Italy — remaining staunchly behind Ukraine. NATO, described as experiencing "brain death" by President Emmanuel Macron of France in 2019, once again serves the clear purpose of protecting the Western alliance from Russian attack.

But even among Western countries, the unity has not been perfect. Hungary has technically sanctioned Russia as a member of the European Union, but under leader Viktor Orban it has been a persistent outlier in support for Ukraine within the E.U. Hungary delayed several E.U. decisions that required unanimous support.

Others that provided Ukraine with military support have declined to impose economic sanctions on Russia.

31 countries imposed sanctions on Russia and provided military assistance to Ukraine Belgium Ireland Finland France Japan Spain Slovakia Bulgaria Italy Australia U.S. Lithuania Norway Greece Sweden Latvia Germany Estonia Turkey Canada U.K. South Korea Poland Hungary Malta Military assistance but no sanctions Cyprus Switzerland Sanctions but no military assistance Belgium Ireland France Spain Japan Australia Italy Lithuania U.S. Norway Greece Germany Canada U.K. Poland Turkey South Korea Hungary Malta Cyprus Military assistance but no sanctions Switzerland Sanctions but no military assistance Belgium Ireland Finland France Japan Spain Slovakia Bulgaria Italy Australia U.S. Lithuania Norway Greece Sweden Latvia Germany Estonia Canada U.K. Turkey Poland Hungary Malta South Korea Cyprus Switzerland Sanctions but no military assistance Military assistance but no sanctions

And a much smaller group of countries have done everything: imposed sanctions, provided heavy weapons — such as tanks, armored vehicles and air defense missile systems — and committed at least 0.1 percent of G.D.P. as bilateral aid to Ukraine, according to data from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

18 countries have sent heavy weapons and committed more than 0.1% of G.D.P. in aid to Ukraine Committed more than 0.1% of GDP in aid but not sent heavy weapons Sent heavy weapons but committed less than 0.1% of GDP in aid Belgium Japan France Spain Bulgaria Italy Australia Slovakia U.S. Lithuania Norway Greece Sweden Latvia Germany Estonia Canada U.K. Turkey Poland South Korea Hungary Malta Cyprus Switzerland Military assistance but no sanctions Sanctions but no military assistance Sent heavy weapons but committed less than 0.1% of GDP in aid Committed more than 0.1% of GDP in aid but not sent heavy weapons Ireland Japan France Spain Australia Italy Lithuania U.S. Norway Greece Germany Canada U.K. Poland Turkey South Korea Hungary Malta Cyprus Switzerland Military assistance but no sanctions Sanctions but no military assistance Committed more than 0.1% of GDP in aid but not sent heavy weapons Sent heavy weapons but committed less than 0.1% of GDP in aid Belgium France Japan Spain Bulgaria Italy Australia Slovakia U.S. Lithuania Norway Greece Sweden Latvia Germany Estonia Canada U.K. Turkey Poland South Korea Hungary Malta Cyprus Switzerland Military assistance but no sanctions Sanctions but no military assistance Sources: Kiel Institute for the World Economy; Finnish officials

As the war passes the one-year mark, Russia’s strategy is clear: to wait out the West. Eventually, Mr. Putin is betting, European countries worried about the war’s toll on their economies and their politics will drop their support for sanctions and weapons deliveries. The countries across Asia, the Middle East and Africa that are already neutral in the conflict will continue to increase trade with Russia.

And perhaps even the United States, with its presidential election next year, will tire of war and will pressure Ukraine to give in to Mr. Putin.

How unified the West can remain — and how much of the world it is able to keep at least partly on its side — could well determine the outcome of the conflict.

[END]
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[1] Url: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/02/23/world/russia-ukraine-geopolitics.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-russia-ukraine&variant=show®ion=BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT&block=storyline_flex_guide_recirc

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