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New National UMass Amherst Poll Finds Ron DeSantis Neck-and-Neck with Donald Trump in Republican 2024 Presidential Matchup : UMass Amherst [1]

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Date: 2023-01

Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll

A new national University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll has found Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis running neck-and-neck with former President Donald Trump in a potential head-to-head matchup for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.

In a one-on-one matchup, DeSantis edges Trump among Republicans in the new national poll, 51-49, which is within the poll’s margin of error. When both are included in a larger field that includes potential candidates such as former Vice President Mike Pence, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and others, Trump leads the field with 37% of Republicans choosing him as their preferred choice for the party’s nomination, with DeSantis close behind at 34%. No other candidate received double-digit support.

“The Republican race for the presidency is shaping up to be highly competitive with a former president an a number of popular governors, senators, representatives and even media personalities all potentially vying to become the 47th President of the United States,” says Tatishe Nteta, provost professor of political science at UMass Amherst and director of the poll. “However, if the race comes down to the two current frontrunners, former President Donald Trump and the current governor of the state of Florida Ron DeSantis, the election is a statistical dead heat. In the coming year, if the election does indeed become a two-person race GOP voters will have a difficult decision to make between two viable and popular candidates.”

Image Tatishe Nteta

“DeSantis appears to be the choice among the more establishment-oriented Republicans,” says Raymond La Raja, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “In a head-to-head matchup between DeSantis and Trump among Republican voters, the outcome is basically even. However, older people, the more educated and the wealthy prefer DeSantis by solid margins. Men also prefer him – 57-43 – compared to women, who favor Trump, 54-46.”

“The fact that support for Ron DeSantis’ presidential ambitions comes disproportionately from older, wealthier and more educated Republicans is good news for him – and bad news for Trump,” says Jesse Rhodes, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “These are the people who are most likely to vote, make political contributions and participate in campaigns. If DeSantis is able to hold these voters, he will be in a very formidable position in the GOP primary.”

Image Raymond La Raja

“The dominant narrative following a disappointing Republican showing in the 2022 midterm elections has Republicans distancing themselves from Donald Trump and his election denialism and recognizing that he and his ilk have been an albatross fettered to the Party’s electoral fortunes,” says Alexander Theodoridis, associate professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “While hints of such a shift can be seen among GOP elites, results from our latest poll make it clear the Republican rank-and-file have yet to fully receive the memo about quitting Trump and acknowledging the electoral liability he brings. Just over a year before the nominating contests will begin, Trump and DeSantis are essentially tied in a head-to-head matchup and no other contender appears to have meaningful backing, and he remains among the top three choices for most Republicans. A mere 10% of Republican respondents blame Trump for the Party’s lackluster midterm performance, attributing it instead to old-standby rationalizations like mainstream media bias (30%) and voter fraud (21%), and most Republican voters still don’t believe it would be better for the GOP – or the nation – if Trump stepped away from politics.”

“DeSantis’ rise as a threat to Donald Trump’s claim on the 2024 Republican presidential nomination points to important indirect impacts of the House Select Committee on American politics,” Rhodes surmises. “While most Republicans question the Committee and its findings, it’s likely that a significant fraction also understands that the Committee’s findings damage Trump’s electability in the general election. This has put some Republicans on the search for a viable conservative Republican alternative, and right now DeSantis seems to be the person they’re looking for.”

Views on the House of Representatives, Speaker McCarthy and the GOP

Asked to measure their feelings on a scale of 0 (coldest) to 100 (warmest), the poll’s respondents continue to hold Democrats in a higher regard than Republicans, 46-40, while new House Speaker Kevin McCarthy holds an average rating of 37. More than half of those surveyed (54%) say that the views and policies of the Republican Party are too extreme, while 55% of the respondents say that the Democratic Party’s views and policies are “generally mainstream.”

The new poll also asked respondents about their views on what the new Republican-led House of Representatives should prioritize. While 63% of those surveyed said the House GOP should compromise with House and Senate Democrats and President Biden to pass legislation, 55% believe they should push bills that reflect Republican priorities – even though they likely wouldn’t become law – and an equal percentage want the GOP to investigate the business dealings of Hunter Biden. Nearly six in 10 (58%) want investigations into the withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Biden administration’s handling of immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border.

“The challenges in store for newly-minted House Speaker Kevin McCarthy as he attempts to wrangle his caucus with a razor-thin majority are on full display in our latest results,” Theodoridis says. “The vast majority of Republicans believe the House should impeach Joe Biden – and half expect that it will – and launch investigations into Hunter Biden, the withdrawal from Afghanistan and the handling of immigration at the southern border. Nearly 90% of Republicans want the GOP-controlled House to pass legislation that reflects Republican priorities, even if the Democratic Senate and Joe Biden won’t allow those bills to become law.

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[1] Url: https://www.umass.edu/news/article/new-national-umass-amherst-poll-finds-ron-desantis-neck-and-neck-donald-trump

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