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China Threat Inflation and America’s Nonsensical Plans [1]

['Dan Grazier']

Date: 2023-01

The larger American ships give the fleet a significant advantage in a number of areas, including the capacity to launch cruise missiles. U.S. surface ships have more than 9,000 vertical missile launch cells, compared to the 1,000 in the Chinese fleet.

When it comes to submarines, the Chinese force is about the same size as the U.S. Navy’s, but the two differ significantly in capability. The Chinese Navy has at least 66 submarines and is expected to add another 10 by 2030. The bulk of the Chinese submarine fleet is the 55 diesel-powered attack submarines. The rest of the force consists of seven nuclear-powered attack submarines and four ballistic missile submarines. The U.S. Navy has a total of 71 submarines, with 53 fast attack submarines, 14 ballistic missile submarines, and four guided missile boats. All of the U.S. Navy’s submarines are nuclear powered, which gives them greater range and the ability to patrol longer. Additionally, Chinese submarines are relatively noisy in the water. That makes them easier to detect with the Sound Surveillance System, a series of underwater microphones deployed around the western Pacific to listen for submerged vehicles. According to a study by Mike Sweeney, a fellow at the Defense Priorities think tank, “it is likely no Chinese nuclear attack submarines can leave that area without detection.”

The Chinese Navy can get away with smaller, less capable ships and submarines since its fleet is designed to operate as part of a combined arms force close to the Chinese mainland. Should war ever come, the Chinese fleet will operate under the protection of the land-based missiles and aircraft that make up the A2/AD defensive network. This combination would make any attack against the Chinese costly, perhaps prohibitively so. Although today’s Chinese missiles are mobile and easy to conceal, most are limited to striking targets that are hundreds of kilometers away, rather than thousands. This combination is one best suited to defending territory that China considers under its sphere of influence, and it would be effective. For instance, in war games simulating a Chinese invasion of Taiwan conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in 2022, intervening American forces lost more than 900 aircraft — about half of the current Air Force and Navy inventory — and a large part of the U.S. Navy’s surface fleet.

But here’s the good news: This strategy isn’t one that’s effective on the offense. China’s navy becomes significantly less formidable should it ever venture away from its home waters.

China’s Military Shortcomings

China’s Navy would have a difficult time operating outside the waters adjacent to the mainland because it lacks the structure necessary to do so. Much has been made about Chinese aircraft carriers in recent years, but the carrier fleet remains in its infancy. “Even today the PLAN is taking an unhurried approach to developing carriers, having refitted a Soviet-built flat-top, improved the design after taking it to sea, and constructed an upgraded version at Chinese yards,” write Toshi Yoshihara and James R. Holmes. The Chinese government purchased an incomplete Soviet-era Kuznetsov-class aircraft carrier from Ukraine in 1998 and spent 14 years converting it into the Liaoning. The Shandong, commissioned in 2019, is an updated copy of the first ship and built entirely in China. The Chinese launched the Type 003 Fujian aircraft carrier in June 2022 to much fanfare. The Fujian is the first carrier designed and built entirely by the Chinese.

None of the Chinese aircraft carriers compare well to the latest western ships. All of them are smaller and conventionally powered, which limits their operating range. The first two ships use a ski ramp-style deck at the bow of the ship to launch aircraft; this is to provide extra elevation for aircraft as they take off under only the power of their own engines. The catapult launch systems on more modern aircraft carriers provide an extra mechanical boost from the ship to get aircraft to takeoff speed faster. The lack of catapults on the first two Chinese carriers imposes limits to the takeoff weight of the aircraft being launched, which means munitions and fuel payloads are reduced. That impacts their range and combat effectiveness. The Fujian features more modern equipment, including an electromagnetic catapult to launch aircraft like the newest American carriers.

The new carrier’s design will allow larger aircraft carrying heavier loads to operate from it. The ship is also closer in size to American carriers. Some reports say the ship weighs in at 80,000 tons, but other sources, including the Congressional Research Service, say the ship may be closer to 100,000 tons, which would make it the same size as a Ford-class ship. But the Fujian still has a long way to go before it is fully operational or can even demonstrate its capabilities. The South China Morning Post reports that “military analysts say the process to get the warship ready for active service could take several years — from the fit-out to testing and sea trials.”

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[1] Url: https://www.pogo.org/report/2022/12/china-threat-inflation-and-americas-nonsensical-plans

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