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Despite dwindling stocks, Russia has enough ammunition to pummel Ukraine through the winter — Pentagon [1]
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Date: 2022-12-13 12:15:43.360000
RUNNING LOW, BUT NOT OUT: The Pentagon estimates that despite burning through its inventory of artillery shells and precision-guided missiles, and in some cases being forced to use unreliable 40-year-old munitions, Russia likely has enough ammunition to continue its ground offensive and aerial assault on Ukrainian infrastructure through the winter months.
“We assess that at the rate of fire that Russia has been using its artillery and rocket ammunition, in terms of what we would call fully serviceable and rocket ammunition, they could probably do that until early 2023,” a senior defense official told reporters at the Pentagon on Monday.
“Their stocks of fully serviceable ammunition — this would be new ammunition — are rapidly dwindling, which is probably forcing them to increasingly use ammunition in what we would consider degraded conditions,” the official said. “This essentially puts Russian forces in a position to have to make a choice about what risks it’s willing to accept in terms of increased failure rates, unpredictable performance.”
The official was less specific on Russia’s remaining inventory of precision-guided munitions, such as cruise missiles, other than to say those are running low, too. “We do assess that they have used quite a bit of their stockpile and that the numbers available to them have really diminished their ability to sustain their current rate of fire when it comes to PGMs.”
RUSSIAN AMMUNITION ‘RAPIDLY DWINDLING’ AS WAR DRAGS ON, US OFFICIAL SAYS
ZELENSKY: ‘RUSSIA STILL HAS THEM’: In his nightly address to Ukrainians, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that with Russian missile strikes continuing to degrade the country’s energy grid, the challenge now is to get through the winter.
“Every day, we add new energy forces to Ukraine. After each Russian attack, we restore the system as much as possible,” Zelensky said. “We are doing everything to bring to Ukraine as much equipment as possible, which can compensate for the damage caused by missile hits.”
“So as long as they have missiles, and Russia still has them, please take seriously all warnings from the Ukrainian military command, from our air force and air alarms,” he said. “Russia has not given up its terror tactics. The absence of massive missile strikes only means that the enemy is preparing for them and can strike at any time.”
Zelensky said he would be making a virtual appearance at today’s international donor conference in Paris, where dozens of countries and international organizations, under the leadership of French President Emmanuel Macron, will try to coordinate a massive relief effort to help Ukrainians survive the frigid winter months. “We will do everything to get through this winter,” he said.
PUTIN PULLS PLUG ON YEAR-END PRESS CONFERENCE: It’s become a tradition in Vladimir Putin’s Russia that at the end of the year, the president holds a marathon Q&A media event and waxes on about the successes of the past year, replete with bragging about accomplishments and boasting about new weapons, all while bashing the United States and the West.
Not this year. “There won’t be one before New Year,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on a conference call on Monday, adding that Putin would try to find other opportunities to talk to reporters.
“This will be the first time in 10 years that Putin has not held the annual event, while the usual public phone-in also did not take place this year,” the British Defense Ministry noted in its daily Twitter update . “The cancellation is likely due to increasing concerns about the prevalence of anti-war feeling in Russia.”
“Kremlin officials are almost certainly extremely sensitive about the possibility that any event attended by Putin could be hijacked by unsanctioned discussion about the ‘special military operation,’” the assessment said.
In an update delivered to the House of Commons, British Defense Minister Ben Wallace said that as the war approaches its 10th month, more than 100,000 Russian troops are either dead, injured, or deserted and Russia has lost 4,500 armored vehicles, 63 fixed-wing aircraft, 70 helicopters, 150 drones, 12 ships, and over 600 artillery systems. “President Putin’s three-day war, or 'special operation,' turns out to have been a disaster for him and his army,” Wallace said.
PUTIN'S PRESS CONFERENCE CANCELLATION COMES AS RUSSIA STRUGGLES IN UKRAINE WAR
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HAPPENING TODAY: Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin are jointly hosting the U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit for the next three days at the downtown convention center in Washington, D.C. Delegations from 49 invited African countries and the African Union are attending, along with members of the private sector.
Blinken is scheduled to deliver remarks at the Peace, Security, and Governance Forum at 12:30 p.m., while Austin will be moderating a Q&A session at about the same time. President Joe Biden will address the African leaders on Wednesday.
“This summit is an opportunity to deepen the many partnerships we have on the African continent,” said White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre. “We will focus on our efforts to strengthen these partnerships across a wide range of sectors spanning from businesses to health to peace and security.”
At a Monday White House briefing , national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Biden would use the gathering to declare his support for adding the African Union as a permanent member of the G-20 nations. “It's past time for Africa to have permanent seats at the table in international organizations and initiatives,” said Sullivan. “And the president also plans to underscore his commitment to U.N. Security Council reform, including support for a permanent member from the African continent.”
THE BATTLE FOR BAKHMUT: After embarrassing defeats in Kharkiv in the northeast and Kherson in the south, Russia has concentrated most of its firepower on capturing the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut.
A stubborn Ukrainian defense has prevented the fall of the city, but months of unrelenting artillery fire have reduced much of the city to rubble.
“The front-line situation remains very difficult in the key areas of Donbas — Bakhmut, Soledar, Maryinka, Kreminna,” Zelensky said Friday . “There is no living place left on the land of these areas that has not been damaged by shells and fire. The occupiers actually destroyed Bakhmut, another Donbas city that the Russian army turned into burnt ruins.”
At the Pentagon, a senior defense official said Russia’s way of war with “heavy artillery strikes and throwing forces at the problem” had produced “significant casualties” and only “incremental gains.”
“The Ukrainians are fighting very, very hard in the Donbas. And it is true that the fighting around Bakhmut, particularly of late, has been very, very violent, very intense,” said National Security Council spokesman John Kirby on CNN . “But the Ukrainians have done a very agile, capable job of trying to win back that territory from the Russians. … The Bakhmut area, that's really the only area where the Russians have made even some incremental progress.”
“Elsewhere along the front, all the way down to the south, the Russians are largely in defensive positions and the Ukrainians are doing the pushing on them,” he said.
‘BRAINSTORMING’ PAUL WHELAN’S RELEASE: White House and State Department officials held a Zoom meeting with Elizabeth Whelan yesterday, a follow-up to a conversation the sister of imprisoned former Marine Paul Whelan had with Biden after the prisoner swap with Russia that freed Brittney Griner but not her brother.
National security adviser Jake Sullivan described it as a “brainstorming” session to figure out “ how to go forward” in attempting to secure Whelan’s freedom. “I will just say that the conversations with Paul Whelan’s family have been substantive,” Sullivan said. “They have had a number of very good questions and also a number of suggestions that they’ve put forward.”
“It certainly helps us come up with options and alternatives,” said Kirby on CNN. “We have a better understanding of their position, what their expectations are, and that will help us come up with proposals and alternatives. We're going to stay at this work, and we're going to do everything we can to get Paul home just as quickly as we can.”
BIDEN ADMINISTRATION OFFICIALS MEET WITH FAMILY OF PAUL WHELAN FOLLOWING GRINER DEAL
The Rundown
Washington Examiner : Russian ammunition ‘rapidly dwindling’ as war drags on, US official says
Washington Examiner : Putin's press conference cancellation comes as Russia struggles in Ukraine war
Washington Examiner : McConnell threatens short-term continuing resolution if Democrats don't meet omnibus demands
Washington Examiner : Greece accuses Turkey of bringing 'North Korean-style attitude' into NATO
Washington Examiner : Iranian official condemns Khamenei crackdown on protesters
Washington Examiner : Biden administration officials meet with family of Paul Whelan following Griner deal
Washington Examiner : Border Patrol overrun with 4,500 in custody as immigrants rush to beat Title 42 end
Washington Examiner : Opinion: The US has better European allies than Germany and France
Defense Daily : Schumer Says Senate To Consider FY ‘23 NDAA, One-Week CR This Week
Reuters : G-7 Considers More Air Defence For Ukraine As Fighting Rages
New York Times : Norway Starts To See Russian Spies Everywhere
Washington Times : Navy Denies Curtailing Warships, Reconnaissance In South China Sea
Bloomberg : China Sends Most Bombers Toward Taiwan In At Least Two Years
Reuters : Ex-US Pilot Held In Australia Faces US Charges Over Chinese Military Pilot Training
Military.com : Visa Program for Afghans Who Helped US Military in Danger of Lapsing After Exclusion from Defense Bill
Defense One : Can We Actually Build It?’ Defense Industry Leaders Look Ahead to Uncertain 2023
Washington Post : Japan To Buy Tomahawk Missiles As Part Of New Buildup
Defense News : US Navy Secretary Sees No Need To Rush Next-Gen Destroyer Program
USNI News : SECNAV Del Toro: Navy Needs To ‘Be Realistic’ In Pursuit Of Next Destroyer, Sub, Fighter
Stars and Stripes : Future Of US Navy Base In Diego Garcia Hinges On UK-Mauritius Negotiations
Air & Space Forces Magazine : First Test of All-Up ARRW Hypersonic Missile Deemed a Success
Defense Post : US Marine Corps Receives Cottonmouth Reconnaissance Vehicle Prototype
Air & Space Forces Magazine : B-2 Damaged Following Emergency Landing and Fire at Whiteman
Air Force Times : Predictive Maintenance Works. Why Isn’t the Military Using It More?
Air & Space Forces Magazine : How a B-1 Bomber Task Force ‘Pushed the Envelope’ on ACE
19fortyfive.com : Top Gun III Coming Soon?
New York Times : Military To Replace Guantanamo Bay Hospital With $435 Million Health Facility
19fortyfive.com : Is Russia's War in Ukraine Going on 'Winter Break'?
19fortyfive.com : Make Putin Pay: How Will Ukraine Rebuild After the War?
19fortyfive.com : Ukraine War: Why Bakhmut Became Hell on Earth
Forbes : Biden’s Antitrust Crusade Is A Negative For National Security
The Cipher Brief : EU Leaders Must Strike ‘Grand Energy Bargain’
The Cipher Brief : There is a Place for Japan in AUKUS
Air & Space Forces Magazine : Col. Joe Kittinger — Fighter Pilot, POW, Longtime Freefall Record Holder — Dies at 94
Calendar
TUESDAY | DECEMBER 13
8 a.m. 801 Mount Vernon Pl. NW Washington — State Department hosts three-day 2022 U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit, with Vice President Kamala Harris and U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai
https://www.state.gov/africasummit
8:30 a.m. — Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe virtual briefing: “No Safe Haven: Launching the U.S.-Europe Coalition on Russia Sanctions,” with Rep. Steve Cohen (D-TN), CSCE co-chairman; Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC), CSCE ranking member and commissioner; Ukrainian lawmaker Oleksii Goncharenko, chairman of the Ukrainian Parliament caucuses "For free Caucasus" and "For democratic Belarus;" U.K. Parliament member Robert Seely, British Conservative Party politician who serves in Parliament for the Isle of Wight; Estonian Parliament member Eerik-Niiles Kross, head of the Estonian delegation in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe; European Union Parliament member Petras Austrevicius, Lithuanian member of the EU Committee on Foreign Affairs; and Polish Sejm member Arkadius Mularczyk, leader of the Polish delegation to the Council of Europe
https://www.youtube.com/HelsinkiCommission
9 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: "The NATO alliance and the road to the 2023 Vilnius Summit,” with U.S. Permanent Representative to NATO Julianne Smith
https://www.csis.org/events/conversation-ambassador
9 a.m. — German Marshall Fund of the U.S. virtual discussion: "EU-Turkey in Central Asia: Scope for Cooperation?" with Idil Bilgic Alpaslan, principal infrastructure economist at EBRD; Nargis Kassenova, senior fellow at Harvard University's Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies; Temur Umarov, fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Samuel Doveri Vesterbye, managing director at the European Neighborhood Council; and Kadri Tastan, GMFUS resident senior fellow
https://www.gmfus.org/event/eu-turkey-central-asia-scope-cooperation
10 a.m. 310 Cannon — House Homeland Security Intelligence and Counterterrorism Subcommittee hearing: “Examining the Operations of the Office of Intelligence and Analysis,” with Kenneth Wainstein, Homeland Security undersecretary for the Office of Intelligence and Analysis
http://homeland.house.gov
10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services full committee markup of H.R. 1475, resolution of inquiry requesting the president and directing the secretary of defense to transmit to the House of Representatives any record created on or after Jan. 21, 2021, under the control of the president or the secretary, respectively, that refers to the Department of Defense and includes certain terms and phrases relating to gender or a related measure
https://armedservices.house.gov/
10 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Wilson Center Global Europe Program discussion: “The Law and Politics of Neutrality: A Comparative Analysis Amidst Resurging Russian Revanchism,” with Benedikt Harzl, general editor of the Review of Central and East European Law
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/law-and-politics-neutrality
10:30 a.m. 1225 I St. NW — The Hill hosts an event: "Risk to Resilience: Cyber and Climate Solutions Bolstering America's Power Grid," with Rep. Jim Himes (D-CT); Puesh Kumar, director of the Energy Department's Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response; Tom Fanning, chairman, president, and CEO of Southern Company; Jason Grumet, founder and president of the Bipartisan Policy Center; and Steve Clemons, contributing editor at the Hill
https://thehill.com/events/3742089-risk-to-resilience
12 p.m. — Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists virtual conversation: “What’s next for Russia: Does Putin matter?” with Ukraine expert Melinda Haring, deputy director, Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center; Charles Strozier, professor emeritus of history, John Jay College and the Graduate Center, City University of New York; and Daniel Drezner, professor of international politics and nonresident senior fellow at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs
https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
3 p.m. House Triangle, U.S. Capitol — House Republican news conference calling for the impeachment of DHS Secretary Mayorkas,” with Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ).
6:30 p.m. Secretary of State Antony Blinken delivers remarks at a reception for African innovators as part of the U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit at the State Department
https://www.state.gov/public-schedule
WEDNESDAY | DECEMBER 14
8 a.m. 801 Mount Vernon Pl. N.W. — State Department 2022 U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit Day Two, with President Joe Biden delivering keynote remarks
https://www.state.gov/africasummit
10 a.m. 2154 Rayburn — House Oversight and Reform Committee hearing: “The Rise of Anti-LGBTQI+ Extremism and Violence in the U.S.”
http://oversight.house.gov
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W — Center for Strategic and International Studies book discussion: American Defense Reform: Lessons from Failures and Successes in the Navy, with co-author retired Navy Rear Adm. Dave Oliver and co-author Anand Toprani, associate professor of strategy and policy at the Naval War College
https://www.csis.org/events/reforming-dod-management-lessons-navy
10:30 a.m. — McCain Institute virtual discussion: "Reaffirming America's Strategic Alliances," with Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte and former Defense Secretary Mark Esper, fellow at the McCain Institute
https://www.eventbrite.com/e/conversations-with-secretary-mark-esper
11:45 a.m. — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin welcomes Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi to the Pentagon.
2 p.m. — Stimson Center forum: “North Korea: Is Denuclearization Dead?’ with Robert Gallucci, distinguished professor, Georgetown University School of Foreign Service; Siegfried S. Hecker, senior fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University; Sharon Squassoni, research professor of international affairs, George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs; and Joel Wit, distinguished fellow in Asian and Security Studies, Stimson Center
https://www.stimson.org/event/north-korea-is-denuclearization-dead/
2 p.m. — Defense News webcast: “Smart Bases for Defense,” with Jay Bonci, chief technology officer, Office of the Chief Information Officer, U.S. Air Force; and Phillip Ritter, principal architect, Federal Division, Nokia
https://events.defensenews.com/smart-bases-for-defense/
2 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: "Emerging Security Issues in Space Policy,” with Assistant Defense Secretary for Space Policy John Plumb; FCC Commissioner Brendan Carr; Jaisha Wray, associate administrator for international affairs at the Commerce Department's National Telecommunications and Information Administration; and Sarah Mineiro, CEO and owner of Tangara Enterprises
https://www.csis.org/events/emerging-security-issues-space-policy
3 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. — Hudson Institute discussion: "Taiwan Policy in the New Congress," with Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE)
https://www.hudson.org/events/taiwan-policy
THURSDAY | DECEMBER 15
9 a.m. 801 North Glebe Rd., Arlington, Virginia — Intelligence and National Security Alliance discussion: “Today's global challenges and CIA's efforts to address them," with CIA Director William Burns and former Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence Sue Gordon
https://www.insaonline.org/detail-pages/event
11:30 a.m. 550 C St. SW — Washington Space Business Roundtable discussion: “Satellite acquisition reform," with Assistant Air Force Secretary for Space Acquisitions and Integration Frank Calvelli and Sandra Erwin, reporter at Space News
https://www.wsbr.org/events/wsbr-december-luncheon
11:30 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: "Is Russia-Ukraine a Forever War?" with Ekaterina Schulmann, Russian political scientist; Andrew Weiss, CEIP vice president for studies; and Aaron David Miller, CEIP senior fellow
https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/12/15/carnegie-connects
11:30 a.m. — Brookings Institution virtual discussion: "Ukraine's Economy: Today's Challenges, Tomorrow's Needs, and Lessons from Past Reconstruction Efforts"
https://www.brookings.edu/events/ukraines-economy-todays-challenges-tomorrows-needs-lessons-from-past-reconstruction-efforts/
11:45 a.m. — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin meets with Lithuanian Defense Minister Arvydas Anusauskas
FRIDAY | DECEMBER 16
9 a.m. — Middle East Institute 11th annual Turkey Conference
https://www.mei.edu/events/meis-11th-annual-turkey-conference
[END]
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