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Poll: Kyrsten Sinema Poised to Lose Democratic Primary in 2024 [1]

['Mckenzie Wilson', 'Devi Ruia', 'Lew Blank']

Date: 2021-10-14

By Ryan O'Donnell, Gustavo Sanchez, and Brian Burton

Methodology

From October 8 to 10, 2021, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 467 likely Democratic primary voters in Arizona using SMS text-to-web to contact voters. Because of Arizona’s primary system, prospective respondents were Democratic and Independent voters sampled from the September 2021 version of the voter file. The responses were weighted to be representative of likely Democratic primary voters in Arizona by age, gender, education, race, and geography. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error is ±5 percentage points, and the design effect from weighting is 1.4.

This survey relied entirely on responses from text-to-web contacts to ensure these results are most accurate for primary elections, as we find respondents who complete text-to-web surveys are more politically engaged than those who complete surveys using other modes. This higher engagement allows Data for Progress to approximate a Democratic primary electorate as closely as possible. It is also important to note that not all Democrats vote in Democratic primaries. Additionally, we report self-identified partisanship in our crosstabs rather than party registration from the voter file.



Summary of Findings

For Senator Kyrsten Sinema, her next hurdle is going to be her 2024 primary election, where she is going to have to convince Democratic primary voters in Arizona that she deserves to keep her job. Activists who are disappointed with her obstructionism and reluctance to support President Biden’s popular agenda are already organizing to draft other high profile Arizona politicians, like Rep. Ruben Gallego, to run against her in 2024. According to our new poll of likely Arizona Democratic primary voters conducted in October, using the same methodology we used in the recent New York City mayoral primary, we find that Sen. Sinema faces a steep uphill battle to defend her record and convince voters she should stay — as negative sentiment towards her continues to grow.

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[1] Url: https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2021/10/14/kyrsten-sinema-poised-to-lose-democratic-primary-in-2024

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