(C) ARRL Letter
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Propagation Update [1]
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Date: 2025-02
Spaceweather.com reports that sunspot 3981 has produced more than 20
M-class solar flares, including two that almost reached category X.
The activity is likely to continue today. The sunspot retains a
delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for frequent
explosions.
The current solar forecast calls for there to be no G1 (Minor) or
greater geomagnetic storms. A potential glancing blow is possible
on February 7 and 8.
Solar radiation - as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours
- was below the S-scale storm level thresholds. (The S-scale is
used to indicate the severity of energetic particles emitted from
the Sun.) The scale ranges from S1 (minor) to S5 (extreme).
There is a chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms
due to the complex cluster of sunspot groups in the Northwest
Quadrant of the Sun.
Radio Blackouts are expected through February 8, with a chance for
R3 (Strong) events due to several magnetically complex sunspot
groups.
There is a chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms
through February 9 as the complex cluster of sunspot regions in the
north continues to rotate closer to the western limb.
The geomagnetic field activity is expected to be unsettled to active
levels on February 10 to 19.
Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere, February 6, 2025, from F. K. Janda, OK1HH:
"The current 11-year solar cycle beautifully shows how little we
still know about the universe we live in. Including the Sun, which
is a relatively very stable star (otherwise we wouldn't be here).
Each 'eleven year' cycle is different from all the previous ones,
and all previous attempts to predict the next one have always
failed. Better said - some of them have proven to be valid. But only
some.
"The current developments do not appear to be complex. Coronal holes
11 and 12 were followed by the somewhat surprisingly active regions
of AR3976 - 3971, where eruptive activity rose and fell irregularly.
Occasionally including CMEs, which although they mostly did not hit
the Earth, sometimes partially did.
"The ionospheric shortwave propagation conditions were therefore
mostly above average, but at the same time very variable. There was
no way to accurately predict their course, even if only for the next
24 hours. On the other hand, there was no major disturbance that
would have made them significantly worse. There is only one thing to
say about the future development: it will be relatively easy to
predict at first sight. But only at first sight, the reality will
probably be more different than usual."
For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see
http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at,
http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals .
For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .
An archive of past propagation bulletins is located at,
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation .
Check out this QST article about Solar Indices:
https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
The predicted Planetary A index for the period February 9 to 14 is
5, 10, 15, 15, 20, and 10. The predicted largest Kp index is 2, 3,
3, 4, 5, and 3. Predicted 10.7 cm flux is 200, 200, 195, 195, 195,
and 190.
[END]
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