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The K7RA Solar Update [1]

[]

Date: 2022-11

Sunspot activity took quite a plunge over this reporting week

(October 13-19). Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 114.9

to 57.3, while equivalent solar flux values went from 155.3 to

119.6.



Geomagnetic indicators were slightly lower, with average planetary A

index going from 13.3 to 10.6, and middle latitude A index from 10.4

to 8.1.



A new sunspot group emerged on October 13, two more on October 15,

another on October 16, one more on October 17, another on October 19

and one more on October 20.



I should note that the middle latitude A index for October 18-19 are

my own estimates. The Fredericksburg, Virginia magnetometer was

offline for a 24 hour period spanning both days.



The Wednesday forecast of solar flux shows a peak at 160 during the

first week in November.



Predicted daily flux values are 115 on October 21-22, 120 on October

23-27, 130 on October 28, 155 on October 29-30, 152 on October 31,

160 on November 1-8, then 150, 140 and 135 on November 9-11, 130 on

November 12-13, 135 on November 14, 138 on November 15-17, and 140

on November 18-21, 145 on November 22-23, 150 on November 24, 155 on

November 25-26, then 160 from the end of November through the first

week in December.



Predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 21-23, 12 on October 24,

15 on October 25-26, then 12, 15, 12 and 20 on October 27-30, 15 on

October 31 through November 1, then 18, 15, 12, 20, and 8 on

November 2-6, 5 on November 7-9, 18 on November 10-11, then 15 and 8

on November 12-13, 5 on November 14-15, 12 on November 16-17, 8 on

November 18, and 5 on November 19-21, then 15, 12, 15, 12 and 20 on

November 22-26, 15 on November 27-28, and 18 on November 29.



Despite lower solar activity, worldwide 10 meter propagation seems

strong this week, probably boosted by seasonal variations as we head

deeper into the Fall season.



Jon Jones, N0JK (EM28, Kansas) reports from last week:



"A strong several hour F2 opening took place on 6 Meters October 14,

2022. Stations in northern South America and the Caribbean were

strong to the southeast states, Midwest, and eastern Seaboard.



"From eastern Kansas, I logged HC2DR and PJ4MM on 6 Meters via FT8

around 1950 UTC. I was running about 50 watts and a quarter wave

whip on my car 'fixed mobile.'"



"Signals were strong.



"The Solar Flux was 141, K index 4."



F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:



"Solar activity gradually decreased as active regions fell behind

the northwestern limb of the solar disk.



"Earth's magnetic field was active to disturbed around October 15,

when our planet was moving in a rapid stream of solar wind. A minor

G1-class geomagnetic storm was registered on October 15.



"In the following days, solar activity remained low, and the simple

sunspot configuration indicated a low probability of flares.



"It is only in a few days, after the coronal hole in the southeast

of the solar disk crosses the central meridian, that the solar wind

speed and the probability of geomagnetic disturbances will increase

again.



"We can expect a more pronounced increase in solar activity and more

frequent opening of the shortest shortwave bands again, especially

from the last days of October onward."



The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:



https://youtu.be/4hmsd_FMWH4



Angel Santana, WP3GW on October 17 wrote:



"For a month now I've heard (and seen) much activity on 10 meters

more than on any other band on weekends with countries that I've not

heard for a while. On past weeks, have worked 7X, C3, and V51MA

which is very active.



"You can even hear SSTV signals on 28.680 MHz.



"This past Sunday took time to work some stations from I, EA, T7,

and ON. Then after 1730 UTC began calling on 28.550 MHz and work 22

stations including PA, I, F, CX, W, CE, PY, EA8, and LU. All good

signals. Plus, heard DL for the Work All Germany contest.



"Some EA stations are heard well into the 2100 UTC which is like

11pm their local time.



"So, give it a try, this contest season looks very interesting, you

may call this the 'Rise of Ten.'"



Angel added that with his Yaesu FTDX10 he can see the activity

across 10 meters.



Bob, KB1DK writes:



"I have been using the MUF map from the KC2G website since it was

mentioned by N4KZ in your September 16th bulletin. It is very

accurate and is now my go-to source to know what is actually

happening propagation wise before I turn on the rig.



"The auto refresh MUF map reflects the actual and changing band

conditions. The map has been consistently 'spot on' during my first

month of use. I highly recommend the website.



"Over the past three weeks, both 10 and 12 meter SSB have been great

from my Connecticut QTH. I worked many newcomers to 12 meters who

were impressed with both the propagation and the minimal QRM.



"The first two weeks in October was very busy on 10 meters. Weekends

were like a contest, with solid activity between 28.300 and 28.600

Signals were quite strong and many stations were heard here for

several hours straight. While I was able to make SSB contacts to

Saudi Arabia, Zambia, and Australia, I was not able to make contact

with Japan. The signals from Japan were readable and they were

working stations from the west coast."



The site is, https://prop.kc2g.com .



A new photo of a solar flare:



https://bit.ly/3MMAbRb



Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to

[email protected].



For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see

http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information

Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an

explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see

http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .



An archive of past propagation bulletins is at

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good

information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .



Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL

bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .



Sunspot numbers for October 13 through 19, 2022 were 57, 51, 50, 59,

84, 50, and 50, with a mean of 114.9. 10.7 cm flux was 130, 120.5,

115.1, 119.2, 125.6, 113.9, and 113.2, with a mean of 155.3.

Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 18, 18, 16, 6, 6, and 5, with

a mean of 13.3. Middle latitude A index was 4, 16, 15, 11, 4, 4, and

3, with a mean of 10.4.



[END]
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