(C) Minnesota Reformer
This story was originally published by Minnesota Reformer and is unaltered.
. . . . . . . . . .
Think tank: Minnesota's falling fertility rate spells trouble for budgets, economy • Minnesota Reformer [1]
['Izzy Wagener', 'Tim Henderson', 'Christopher Ingraham', 'Phil Galewitz', 'Kff Health News', 'Julie Appleby', 'Renuka Rayasam', 'Bernard J. Wolfson', 'California Healthline', 'More From Author']
Date: 2025-07
Minnesota’s fertility rate is following national trends downward. It could spell trouble for the economy and state budget, according to a new report from The Pew Charitable Trusts, a nonpartisan think tank.
In 2023, Minnesota had its lowest fertility rate in more than 30 years. Measured by the number of children born per 1,000 women between 15 and 44 years old, it was 55.7 compared to an average of 64.2 between 2011 and 2020. This drop was slightly higher than the national average.
Historically, fertility rates have decreased during economic downturns but later bounced back. This changed after the 2008 recession, and the beginning of the pandemic saw a drop without a long-term recovery.
The state may see some benefits from the fertility decline in the short term, with fewer students driving lower education costs. The number of elementary-age public school students has been decreasing at a slow pace for almost a decade, in part due to falling birth rates. But this also has the potential to reduce enrollment-based federal funding, such as Title I grants.
In the long run, however, the working age population will be smaller, decreasing tax revenues and economic growth. This new economic reality is arriving soon: The children born during the 2008 recession — when fertility rates were low — will reach adulthood in 2026.
The size of Minnesota’s workforce is an ongoing concern, particularly as baby boomers retire. In October 2024, there were two job openings for every one unemployed worker.
The current fertility rate decline is being driven in part by who is having children and when. Fertility rates are down among teenagers and Hispanic women. People are also waiting longer to have children and having fewer kids over their lifetimes.
Researchers attribute these trends to financial considerations like student debt, housing costs and the price of child care. Minnesota has among the most costly child care in the nation.
Societal changes also play a role, as more people prioritize their education and careers and marry later in life.
But fertility rates aren’t the only demographics that are changing. Migration and an aging population paint a complicated picture for Minnesota’s future.
In 2024, international and domestic migration was the biggest contributor to population growth in every state except Alaska. In 2023, foreign-born workers made up 10.9% of Minnesota’s labor force. International immigration has declined significantly under President Trump’s policies, which is likely to impact the labor market.
As the population ages, funding the increasing costs of health care and long-term care for older adults will also prove a challenge, especially with the fewer workers resulting from a low fertility rate. This comes as impending federal Medicaid cuts shift more of these costs to states.
[END]
---
[1] Url:
https://minnesotareformer.com/briefs/think-tank-minnesotas-falling-fertility-rate-spells-trouble-for-budgets-economy/
Published and (C) by Minnesota Reformer
Content appears here under this condition or license: Creative Commons License CC BY-NC-ND 4.0.
via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds:
gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/MnReformer/
