In this issue:
* A MOVE TOWARDS PEACE? THE SECOND HUG IN LESS THAN A YEAR...
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S O M A L I A N E W S U P D A T E
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Vol 3, No 9 March 25, 1994. ISSN 1103-1999
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Somalia News Update is published irregularly via electronic mail and
fax. Questions can be directed to
[email protected] or
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A MOVE TOWARDS PEACE? THE SECOND HUG IN LESS THAN A YEAR...
(SNU, Nairobi/Uppsala, March 25) - After more than a week of almost
constant talks in the fashionable settings of Nairobi's best hotels
between more than 60 representatives of the Somali factions, and at a
cost of more than 150,000 US dollars per day, Thursday evening
eventually saw Ali Mahdi Mohammed and Mohammed Farah "Aideed" put
their signatures on an agreement that boils down to that they are
going to meet again.
The actual signing ceremony was delayed due to a disagreement
over the protocol. Originally the intention was to obtain the
signatures of all the fifteen movements forming part of the Addis
Ababa agreement on March 27, 1993. However, two problems emerged last
Sunday:
1. Ali Mahdi was not himself a signatory of the Addis agreement.
He proclaimed himself "interim president" of Somalia three days after
Siyad Barre was overthrown in January 1991 and declared himself
"president with executive powers" in July the same year. At the Addis
Ababa meeting he had appointed Mohammed Qanyare Afrah, a businessman
from the allied Murosadde clan, as the chairman for the USC while
Mahdi himself posed as the "president". Since UNOSOM had insisted
that only the chairmen of movements that had existed prior to March
31, 1991, could be part of the agreement, Mahdi found -- cornered by
his own rhetoric -- that he was not going sign and that his Abgaal
clansmen consequently were going to be left out of the agreement.
According to a recent book by former UNOSOM employee and Somalia old-
timer, John Drysdale, this was the moment when Aideed graciously
offered Ali Mahdi a personal seat on the would-be Transitional
National Council after which the two militia leaders fell into the
arms of one another.
In Nairobi, however, Mahdi insisted to sign himself in the
capacity of the coordinator of the so-called Somali Salvation
Alliance or the Group of Twelve and this would, according to some of
the participants, constitute of breach of the continuity from the
Addis agreement. Eventually this disagreement appears to have been
settled in the private talks held between Aideed and Mahdi.
2. A more serious obstacle was posed by the reshuffle within the
alliances of the different militias that has taken place since the
Addis Ababa agreement was signed. In Addis the Southern Somali
National Movement (SSNM) comprising the various Dir clans in the
south signed as part of Aideed's Somali National Alliance (SNA).
However, following alleged attacks of Aideed's Habar Gedir clan on
the Dir-Biyemaal clan of the Merca area during last summer, the
latter withdrew from the SNA and their chairman, Abdi Warsame Isaq,
has subsequently joined Ali Mahdi's Group of Twelve. In the last
months some southern Dir clan members have reemerged as allies to the
SNA under the name of SSNM. The disagreement now was whether - in
keeping with the Addis formula - the SSNM would sign as an undivided
movement or whether their split would be given "official" recognition
and they would sign as two separate movements (as both the SPM, SDM
and USC were supposed to).
Eventually this second disagreement was resolved. It was decided
that only Ali Mahdi and Mohammed Farah Aideed would sign on behalf of
the Group of Twelve and the Somalia National Alliance respectively.
After the signing ceremony the hugged again...
The agreement this time is minimal. The text -- obtained via
Reuters' news agency -- contains a large number of unclear points:
"Following the informal consultations in Nairobi, Kenya, from 11 to
23 March, 1994, the political leaders of Somalia have reached an
understanding based on the following principles:
1.1 Inviolability of the territorial integrity and sovereignty
of the Somali people.
1.2 Repudiation of any form of violence as a means of resolving
conflicts and implementation of a cease-fire and voluntary
disarmament throughout Somalia.
1.3 Respect for and preservation of fundamental human rights
and democratic principles.
1.4 Creation of an atmosphere conducive to brotherly co-
existence among all Somalis, using traditional channels, cultural and
political means.
1.5 Rehabilitation and reconstruction of the country to recover
from the devastation of the civil war.
2. In specific terms, the leaders have agreed to implement the
following:
2.1 To restore peace throughout Somalia, giving priority
wherever conflicts exist.
2.2 To hold a meeting of the signatory factions of the Addis
Ababa Peace Agreement and the Somali National Movement on 15 April
1994 in Mogadishu to set up rules and procedures of voting and
criteria of participation in a national reconciliation conference.
The meeting will also discuss the ways and the modalities to
establish the National Legislative assembly, which will be formed
after the formation of the national government.
2.3 In order to restore the sovereignty of the Somali state, a
national reconciliation conference should be convened on 15 May 1994
to elect a president, vice-presidents (the number to be determined)
and appoint a prime minister.
2.4 To complete and review the formation of local authorities,
where needed, and to establish them, where necessary, as a basis for
regional autonomy and respect for community rights.
2.5 To urge the Somali National Movement to attend the above
and all national reconciliation conferences and consultations.
2.6 To establish an independent judiciary".
The critical paragraphs are number 2.1, 2.4 and 2.5. It would appear
that both Ali Mahdi and Aideed are somewhat over-anxious to approach
the "SNM", a movement that to a large extent is defunct following the
unilateral agreement among the northern clans to secede from Somalia
in May 1991. Paragraph 2.4 refers to the already established district
and regional councils that the SNA so far has refused to acknowledge
and it is clear that the formulation is intended to allow some
leverage over the continuation of these. The process of setting up
and support to councils has largely been abandoned since the head of
the political section of UNOSOM, Leonard Kapungo, left office a month
ago.
Another critical issue with this agreement is the fact that it
has not been signed by all the movements. It was precisely because
Ali Mahdi had not personally signed an earlier agreement (the so-
called Djibouti II) that he claimed to be able to assume the full
powers of presidency. It is certainly not beyond imagination to
conceive of any of those non-signatories to this agreement claiming
that the remain unbound by it.
The most critical issue, however, is that fact that the very
passing of time has meant that the movements themselves have, to some
extent at least, begun to become over-shadowed by other types of
groups claiming their part of the political arena. The January
agreement between the Hiraab-clans of the Hawiye remains the most
manifest expression of popular dissatisfaction with the performance
of the Hawiye militias. Similarly, the apparent unity among the
north-eastern Harti clans appears to have been reached largely
without involvement of the SSDF or any of the other militias in the
area.
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SNU is an entirely independent newsletter devoted to critical
analysis of the political and humanitarian developments in Somalia
and Somaliland. SNU is edited and published by Dr. Bernhard Helander,
Uppsala University, Sweden. SNU is produced with support from the
Scandinavian Institute of African Studies, Uppsala, Sweden.
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