Date: 10 May 92 20:51:52 EDT
From: Gordon Meyer <
[email protected]>
Subject: File 7--GEnie Conference on "Virtual Reality"
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-=(( The Public Forum * NonProfit Connection RoundTable ))=-
n -==((( GEnie Page 545 - Keywords PF or NPC )))==-
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Real-time Conference on Virtual Reality
with
Howard Rheingold
(May 3, 1992)
===================================================================
Copyright (C) 1992 by GEnie (R) and Public Forum*NonProfit Connection
This file may be distributed only in its entirety
and with this notice intact.
This file is the transcript of a real-time on-line conference in
GEnie's Public Forum with Howard Rheingold, author of VIRTUAL REALITY:
The Revolutionary Technology of Computer-Generated Artificial
Worlds--and How It Promises and Threatens to Transfrom Business and
Society.
Howard edits _The Whole Earth Review_ and consults with the US
Congress Office of Technology Assessment. He has written for such
publications as _The New York Times_, _Esquire_, _Playboy_ and _Omni_.
His other (excellent!) books include _Tools for Thought_ and
_Excursions to the Far Side of the Mind._ _Virtual Reality_ is
published by Simon and Shuster.
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Future real-time conferences, all beginning at 9 p.m. ET, include:
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-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
<SHERMAN> Welcome to the first in this month's series of RTCs
on Technology and Society! Please check the
schedule, posted in our Announcements topic (cat
1/topic 3) for the other events . . . These
realtime conferences raise important issues for the
future -- some of them already being discussed in
BB Cat 7: Technology, Science and Society . . .
You'll also find many excellent files in the Public
Forum library, including a couple of articles
posted with permission from the editor of The Whole
Earth Review -- tonight's special guest, Howard
Rheingold . . .
For more than 10 years, Howard has been writing
books and articles about "mind-amplifying"
technologies. Although he questions "the
possibility of accurately predicting the social
impact of any new technology," (in _Tools for
Thought_) . . . he's done a great job helping us
think about the social transformations that may be
provoked by new technology. I've invited Howard to
say a few words of introduction and then . . .
he'll answer questions and join in the discussion.
When you finish typing, please type GA (for Go
Ahead) to let us know that you're done. Three
periods means . . . I'm not done talking; please
wait a second. And now: here's Howard! Any
introductory thoughts? GA
<[Howard] PRESS11> Hello! I like a medium where my ability to type
fast is rewarded. ;-) I guess the first thing I
would like to say about VR is that all the
travelling and talking and reading since I finished
the book have changed some of my attitudes. I would
say that I am more skeptical and less enthusiastic
about the technology's potential than I was when I
wrote the book.
<SHERMAN> Howard, are there any particular aspects of VR
you'd like us to focus on?
<[Howard] PRESS11> One thing I have noticed is that VR is almost like
a metaphor for technology for many people. This is,
it is a way to talk about some of the hopes and
fears we have about the way the world seems to be
heading. In truth, the technology isn't going to
affect most of us for years to come. I'd like to
talk about the ethics of VR. I'm not sure what to
do about it, but I find myself wondering about the
potentially harmful applications, especially since
the Gulf War used VR so successfully.
<[..Ryan...] R.MACMICHAEL> From what I've heard, it is planned on being used
to test-fly planes before they are built in order
to anticipate problems... ... but how could that be
done (the real world emulated so closely) in a way
that humans couldn't pick up on them just as fast.
ga
<[Howard] PRESS11> Flight simulation is one of the roots of VR. Flight
simulators, both civilian and military, are far
more realistic (and expensive) than the Virtuality
games or anything we are likely to see in arcades
for the next decade or two. ga
<SHERMAN> Ryan, follow up question?
<[..Ryan...] R.MACMICHAEL> Yes... How soon would they be used for safety
purposes on a more wide-scale basis? (in the way I
mentioned above) ga
<[Howard] PRESS11> Flight simulators have been used for decades.
United Airlines has a HUGE flight simulator in, I
think, Denver. Only the military use the full-tilt
3D goggles, but the view-through-the-window stuff
is pretty impressive. GA
<SHERMAN> Thanks, Ryan
<[..Ryan...] R.MACMICHAEL> Thanks...
<[Connie] C.RIFENBURG> What has made you more skeptical and less
enthusiastic ...and what did you =think= was the
potential before now... what do you believe =is=
the potential NOW? GA
<[Howard] PRESS11> I don't think that it is a good idea to blur the
line between playing a video game and blowing up
people. And I think that the medium, if perfected,
will be a very powerful tool for mind control...
After all, people decide who to elect and what to
buy and how to live according to the images that we
see on a tiny 2D television tube. How much more
powerful will VR be? Are we really sure that the
medical and design uses are worth the other uses?
Do we really really need this stuff? Perhaps we
ought to spend more time looking at the toxicity of
the environment, and preserving the cultures and
biomass that use plants as healing agents, instead
of creating 3D tools for irradiating tumors. In
regard to the humanities at universities, I
understand that there is a center for the arts in
Banff that is doing good work. And Carl Loeffler at
Carnegie Mellon is doing some stuff with the arts
and VR. GA
<[Connie] C.RIFENBURG> So you think it's like the quandry similar to what
the A-Bomb created? Good/Bad: How can we manage it?
GA
<[Howard] PRESS11> Yes, I think we, as a species, ought to take a
closer look at the natural world that we seem to be
destroying. I'm not so sure that we will be
altogether happy in a totally simulated world when
all the real trees are dead. ga
<SHERMAN> Thanks Connie. Dave Baldwin, your question?
<[Dave] D.BALDWIN8> Other than the obvious military and video game
applications, where would you... anticipate VR
technology showing up in the next decade or so?
Anywhere useful,... Or will it just be a novelty?
GA
<[Howard] PRESS11> 3D CAD pretty soon. Autodesk and IBM will probably
both have products out next year. The design
industry will be the first to have a crack at it.
Scientific visualization and telerobotic control
are the other two fields that will have tools
within the next couple years. ga
<SHERMAN> Because so many of you want to ask questions of
Howard, I'm gonna skip the follow up questions
until we've gone around once . . . Bart, your
question?
<[Dave] D.BALDWIN8> how much more efficient will it be, though? and
what about the cost/benefits?
<[bart] B.PREECS> Howard, do you see VR falling under the control of
the same people/organizations that control our
existing media system Ga
<[Howard] PRESS11> Regarding efficiency -- if you have a design
problem that involves visualizing a complex 3D
space, then even today's crude level might be a
useful tool. Good question. We'll have to see how
the architects and designers react. . .
Yes, I think ALL technologies that create power and
wealth are likely to fall under control of those
who recognize that, and who already have the power
and wealth to seize control of the new media . . .
Are we really sure that hobbyists and artists and
benign folks are going to be the ones who use VR to
the largest effect? Or will it be a weapon and
mind-control device? ga
<SHERMAN> Bart, thanks! Rick D, your question?
<RICK.D> What would the hardware requirements be for the VR
systems of, say, the next three to five years?
Would a standard PC of today work for the systems
you mentioned might be released next year?? GA
<[Howard] PRESS11> The cost of chips seems to be coming down. A 486
engine, for example, is pretty affordable now, and
you can do some stuff with it. But you really want
ten times the power. . . The transputer
architectures, where you put a bunch of chips
together, have some promise. I think people will be
able to do some fun stuff with desktop VR in the
next few years, but the resolution and reaction
speed won't be great. ga
<SHERMAN> Ric Helton, your question?
<[Ric] GRAFFITI> A perfect application of VR hardware (and one that
is likely to speed its development) is "telepresence"
(being somewhere else through remote control,
complete with sight & sounds). How long will it
take telepresence to become commonplace? How far
will it trickle down to "mundane" occupations?
(Not astronautics, nuclear waste management or the
like.) GA
<[Howard] PRESS11> Don't expect anything affordable and high-res in
the telepresence area for five or ten or fifteen
years. There are a lot of problems to be solved,
and a lot of expensive hardware is necessary ga
<SHERMAN> Thanks, Ric, Dave Messer, your question?
<[Dave] D.MESSER> It seems to me that VR also has a potential to help
the environment by reducing pollution, how big an
impact do you thing "telecommuting" will have with
VR? ga
<[Howard] PRESS11> I think we will all be dead from toxic chemicals,
ozone depletion, and the world's largest traffic
jam by the time VR has any impact. In other words,
I think the promise of VR telecommuting is bogus if
you look at it in context of the problems. If
Time/Warner is doing anything, it is strictly
exploratory. Unless they are going into the theme
park business. Disney and Fujitsu, for example, are
creating stuff that we will see in theme parks in a
few years, but not at home. Two limitations:
screen resolution, and computing power, are hard.
But you can't forget that good software takes a
while to create. When LCD screens are ten times as
good and one tenth the price, we'll see some
action. When you can get CRAY power on a desktop
for less than $1000.
<SHERMAN> Frank, your question
<[Frank] F.DUROSS> We have heard the term electronic LSD many times,
how might VR be used as a form of mind expansion?
How might it be abused? GA
<[Howard] PRESS11> I go into it in my book. I think the electronic LSD
argument is a red-herring for the near future.
People are already incredibly addicted to
television, a truly stupefying drug. It will take
decades to create electronic LSD. The worst abuse
model, as I mentioned, is television. Withdrawal
from the real world ga
<SHERMAN> Phil, your question?
<[PHIL] P.VOYSTOCK> Can you be more specific regarding your fear of
mind control applications with VR technology? GA
<[Howard] PRESS11> "Perception is Reality." Willie Horton elected
George Bush. A videotape burned down LA.
Technologies that can manipulate emotions via
perceptions are technologies for manipulating
beliefs, and thus for controlling people
politically. If television works so well with such
little involvement, what will VR do? ga
<SHERMAN> M.DAVIS, your question?
<M.DAVIS34> I've devoured CQ/Whole Earth Review for many years.
Thanks for the great resource. I've heard tell of
VR potentially being used in biomedical/genetic
engineering on a molecular scale. What are some of
the high points/dangers of these developments? GA
<[Howard] PRESS11> Actually, I am much more interested in and
concerned with developments in artificial life
research. But that's another topic. Look for a LOT
on that in the Fall, 1992, WER. VR is being used as
in interface to microengineering, which COULD lead
to nanodevices. A whole new ball game if that's
true. It will take years. ga
<SHERMAN> David G, your question?
<[david] D.GALBRAITH5> where is VR design work/discussion happening
outside of the military-industrial complex?
<[Howard] PRESS11> IBM announced a joint venture with a small British
company. Fujitsu working on entertainment
applications. Various projects at computer
companies. A couple dozen small start-ups. It is
healthy but not huge, exept in Japan, where
significant money -- tens of millions per year --
is still being spent. ga
<SHERMAN> Joe, your question?
<JOE.WEBB> What is the role of VR's money-making potential in
determining how it is developed? ga
<[Howard] PRESS11> When one company or industry demonstrates that
using VR will give it competitive advantage, it
will drive development; when one kind of
application makes economies of scale effective for
components, it drives developments in other fields.
We have yet to see an example of either. The next
five years will tell the tale. ga
<SHERMAN> Bil. Swartz, your question?
<BIL.SWARTZ> Having recently picked up your book 'VR' to
hopefully find some answers but not having time to
more than crack the cover I find it erie that you
are here to ask in person! I would like to know
more about the current state of feed back devices.
The bulky feedback devices such as that ARM...
ouch. How much got thru? ga
<SHERMAN> Bart, you had a question.
<[bart] B.PREECS> Howard, in *your* opinion, what is the most
*useful* thing VR could do that we couldn't do with
out it? GA
<[Howard] PRESS11> The most useful thing, I think, is scientific
visualization. Just as a microscope made modern
medicine possible because biologists could SEE
germs, I think the use of VR to visualize things
like the way the immune system works could help
give scientists important new insights. ga
<SHERMAN> Phil, your question?
<[PHIL] P.VOYSTOCK> How long did it take to reasearch/write your book?
<[Howard] PRESS11> I travelled and interviewed and did a lot of
reading for about a year, and spent about another
year writing and filling in other interviews and
reading. ga
<SHERMAN> Dave M, your question?
<[Dave] D.MESSER> Do you think that VR technology should be
controller or suppressed due to the dangers
involved? GA
<[Howard] PRESS11> No, I don't think "controlled" or "suppressed" are
the right words. I don't think we even HAVE the
right words. We need to find ways, as a society, to
have discussions about how to guide technological
development. I trust neither the government nor
private enterprise, given the history of the past
decades. . . Although I don't have the answer, I do
believe that it is important for citizens to inform
ourselves about the potential consequences of
technology, and to raise these questions.
Unfortunately, our society can't even handle
discussions of basic human rights or environmental
dangers versus economics. The best I can do is
write books and talk to people and encourage them
to ask questions. ga
<SHERMAN> Adrn, your turn
<[Adrn] A.DEMARAIS> The sci-fi book Ender's Game was about a child
prodigy being taught how to wage a war in
simulators, only to discover that it was all real
and he had destroyed a civilization . Is this what
you fear VR might become? GA
<[Howard] PRESS11> Ender's Game is one real fear, yes. I think it is
entirely possible, given the way military uses of
technology have evolved, and how well VR did in the
Gulf. War is bad enough, but what if we don't know
whether we are playing a game or blowing up real
people somewhere? ga
<SHERMAN> Dave Galbraith, your turn!
<[david] D.GALBRAITH5> Do you know of any specific public access forums
for individuals involved with VR using TODAY's
level of computing hardware? GA
<[Howard] PRESS11> You mean places to talk about it? There is the VR
conference on the WELL, and the usenet newsgroup,
sci.virtual-worlds, both of which have a lot of
<SHERMAN> We're going to end the formal RTC now. I want to
thank you all for some great questions and to thank
Howard for taking time (from his next book and his
garden) to answer them . . . We can continue to
chat informally, and Howard, before you go, I
wonder if you . . .
<[Howard] PRESS11> Dinner is awaiting me! Thanks for the questions,
and keep on asking them!
<[Howard] PRESS11> ** has left.
-----# Participants #-----
<[Adrn] A.DEMARAIS>
<[bart] B.PREECS>
<BIL.SWARTZ>
<[Connie] C.RIFENBURG>
<[Dave] D.BALDWIN8>
<[david] D.GALBRAITH5>
<[Dave] D.MESSER>
<E.HUDSON>
<[Frank] F.DUROSS>
<[Ric] GRAFFITI>
<JOE.WEBB>
<[Missy] M.ALLEN18>
<M.DAVIS34>
<[PHIL] P.NICHOLLS2>
<[PHIL] P.VOYSTOCK>
<[Howard] PRESS11>
<[..Ryan...] R.MACMICHAEL>
<RICK.D>
<[Tom] SHERMAN>
<SHERRY>
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